Kentucky By the Numbers

[ElsewheresDaughter]

According to the Kentucky Secretary of State, here is the breakdown of registered voters as of May 20, 2008:

Total: 2,857,231
Democrats 1,629,845
Republicans 1,040,438
Indpendents 186,948

Male 1,344,579
Female 1,512,503

Absentee ballots were available starting May 2 and have to be received by May 20, the date of the primary. In the 2004 primary (pdf), there were 563, 000 registered voters and a 23% turnout (375,000 voted in the Democratic primary, a 24% turnout.) Women and men voted in roughly equal numbers.

It's a closed primary and party registration changes had to be in by December 31. Registration ended April 22, 2008. Independents cannot vote in the primary.


http://www.talkleft.com/


I think Edwards endorsed in part because his vote tallies in West Virginia were embarrassing for Obama. If he gets 4 or 5% in KY, it's going to be even more embarrassing for Obama.

The more I think about it, the less sure I am that Edwards was a good thing for Obama. I have a feeling he's going to be about as helpful in KY as Ted Kennedy was with all those hispanic Californians.

[CakeGrrl]

1. I don't think the Edwards endorsement was intended to change the KY numbers much

I think it was timed to knock WV out of the news cycle, which it did.

Obama's team are not naive...they've known WV and KY have been polling consistently as big Clinton wins for a long time.

The question I'm more interested in is whether Obama has another great strategic move in place to offset the KY win other than his Oregon gain?

Regardless of the KY turnout, he will have the lead in the pledged delegate majority, and thanks to the time zone difference, that's something he can use to help defuse the KY pundit chatter a few hours later when Oregon is called for him.

[Texas Hill Country]

3. Oregon is expected, KY is the big question. OR wont matter for the cycle unless he blows her out

so he had better have something for after KY, cause he is gonna get his ass kicked.


If Gore is gonna endorse Obama at all, that will be the day. Because nothing else but that would knock a stomp in KY out of the news cycle.

[TheWraith]

8. Um. Fantasize much?

Nobody cares about Kentucky. She could win with 100% of the vote, and it doesn't change the fact that she lost the primary. And no, it's not a "big question." Clinton's going to win.

[Texas Hill Country]

12. if she wins by round about 40% margins again... it will be on loop.

[TheWraith]

17. If she wins with racists again, THAT is going to be the story. nt

[SCantiGOP]

9. I agree

I know one of SC's super delegates well, and he told me he decided months ago to back Obama, but even through the state primary he was publicly uncommitted. He was in close contact with the campaign and had basically told them "you tell me when the timing is best." He did last week. I think this is what Edwards did.

[PBS Poll-435]

2. So probably expect a 30 - 40% turnout increase from the 04 Primary

[Texas Hill Country]

4. and most of them for Hillary.

[PBS Poll-435]

5. Of course!

My grandmother was born and lived in Oregon and moved to KY 4 years ago. She usually only votes in the GEs, but this year, she is going to vote for Hillary in the primary.

[Texas Hill Country]

13. NICE!

[FrenchieCat]

6. The only person that should be embarassed is Hillary Clinton.....

just because she "appears" to be behaving herself at the moment, she went so low, she'll never come back. She has, along with her "crew", set race relations back by about 20 paces. She has intimated that White people don't vote for a Black. She also intimated in Nevada that Brown people don't vote Black. She has hidden the fact that Rendell endorsed Louis Farrakahn (one of the Black Boogie man used as a prop by her and others)while demanding that Obama renounced and reject same (in other words, she showed her great hypocracy).

In addition, she has set back the argument that was made in "What's the matter with Kansas" by about 25 years. She has made the word Elitist to connotate educated people who succeed in life, even if they did it by pulling themselves up out of bad circumstances (as Obama did). As a Democrat, she has advanced the notion that San Francisco is out of touch, something that Republicans have always said. She has also attacked another Democrat by praising a Republican, while both were vying for the same office.


So if anyone should be embarassed about how West Virginia went and the current Kentucky slant, it should be her. She is a disgrace to all women in America, because when she had a chance to make a difference for the good of this country, she chose regressive language to take us back into the divisive 20th century.

I will never forgive her for that......and because I can't, she's a deep embarassement to me....considering that we are in the same party.

[anonymous171]

7. Some people like Hillary. I know it's a shocker.

[K Gardner]

10. Everyone knows HRC wins KY. Here's the question. So what?

[ej510]

11. 17 pledged delegates from ending the race. These people know it's over but they hate Obama.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

14. who are "these people' ciacada?

[cali]

15. My guess is she takes KY by 25 or 30 but it truly is irrelevant.

Obama has the SDs on tap to endorse him after the primary season ends on June 3- or before. And next Tuesday he'll pass the "Pelosi Club" number triggering 9 more Congressional SD endorsements. Here are the real numbers:

Obama: 121 delegates from 2025
Hillary: 309 delegates from 2025

Next Tuesday Obama will get at the very least, 45 pledged delegates, bring the number of delegates he needs down to 76. Yep that's all of 76 delegates he'll need to clinch it. Hillary will still need around 245-250. See the difference? And actually, he'll need even fewer because he'll be picking up several new SD endorsements before then.

So it's quite possible that SDs will put him at or beyond 2025 before May 31 when the RBC meets to consider MI and FL. Even if they don't, today's AP article with interviews with members of the RBC made it clear that they won't be seating the MI and FL delegates in any way that will be unfair to Obama. And the only unfair way that would have happened is if they awarded him 0 delegates out of MI. Obama will pick up more pledged delegates out of SD, MN and PR. He needs relatively few SDs after that- perhaps 50.

And those are the real numbers- the ones that count.

[LSK]

16. How on earth can Mitch McConnell expect to be relected?

:shrug: