WV isn't in play in November

[underpants]

and it never was. Before I go any further CONGRATS TO HILLARY ON THE BIG WIN!

Why isn't it "in play"

Simple : the NRA

Yes WV has a Dem legislature and a Dem governor (I understand that he is a really nice guy) but it was declared basically off limits in 2000 and our fearless Dem leaders accepted it as such.

This is not to say that the 50-State-Strategy isn't a good one (it is) or that WV's national and local legislature races aren't winnable but not the Presidential side.

Basically the NRA poured money into WV and Tennessee and Arkansas in 2000 and let it be known that if the Dems want to contend for those electoral college votes they are going to have to spend and expend resources not against the RNC but against the RNC supplemented by the NRA. Tenn and Ark were done both because of the large percentage of gun owners but more specifically to embarrass Gore and Clinton in 2000. WV is just another state that they have declared their-contend at your own peril and expense.

WV will not be contested in the Fall no matter who is the nominee.

Congrats to Hillary again and I do have to ask--does this mean Chelsea gets a masters degree from WVU? ( :evilgrin: ) <-- my family is true green Marshall (the University OF West Virginians)

[phrigndumass]

1. Interesting about the NRA, I hadn't known that

:thumbsup:

[iamthebandfanman]

2. i dont think its in play either... but

we may be suprised once the GE gets underway(if it ever does)...

i think as long as we can get back on msg that this is about change, and change that will benefit those whove been neglected the last 8 years, alot of traditionally red places may very well go our way.

[underpants]

3. Well yes we can campaign via the national media *into* WV

but I wouldn't expect any or many campaign stops

[RichGirl]

10. I realize that...

Obama has a copyright on the word "change", but most people know that having a democratic president will be a big change. The people of WV and many other states support Hillary because they want change. She doesn't need to constantly use the word because she lays out what it will look like. It doesn't have to be the Obama brand name which is big on flash and short on substance kind of change.

[iamthebandfanman]

23. who said anything about obama?

jumpy much?

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

4. Yes. She is making a big deal out of winning "the swing states" in a Democratic Primary!

I think you would expect the DLC candidate to win. These are also the states where the well known wedge issues come into play election after election.

[graycem]

5. I just heard for like the 5th time

yet another talking head admit, these "Democrats vote like Republicans" so they are not exactly like other traditional Democrats. Big shocker, eh.

I don't think he should waste much time there in the fall either. He doesn't HAVE to have it. His time will be better spent elsewhere where he actually has a chance to change minds.

[susankh4]

6. Wasn't it in play a few administrations back?

I seem to remember.....

[RichGirl]

7. Nice arguement...but...

The nutcases who value their guns above all, don't need constant commercials to remind them of that. The regular NRA types may love their guns, but they love eating and having a roof over their heads more.

The nutcases were around when Bill Clinton won WV.

[underpants]

13. Yes but the NRA didn't pinpoint WV and the others in '92

they did so in 2000 specifically because of what happened in '92. BTW Clinton won Georgia in '92 also so lets not forget how he got to the White House....yes Georgia.

The Republicans may not be sound or reasonable but they are disciplined, orgainized, and VERY WELL funded.

[RichGirl]

14. I understand what you are saying...

and technically you would be right....but, times, they are a changin'. I know people who have, in the past lived and breathed their guns. But the passion is waning as gas prices and food prices go up, insurance, etc. I think (I hope) it'll be the same with the other wedge issues that the republicans have created...like gay marriage, abortion, etc. When you have to be concerned about basic survival, you don't worry about issues that don't effect you directly.

[underpants]

16. Well I hope so

Let's not forget that people also will cling to whatever gives them an excuse to do what they were going to do anyway AND regardless of which of them gets the nomination "voting 2ns Amendment rights" gives one cover for not voting for the black guy or the woman.

See exit polls in 2004-the ones that offered "values" as an option on voters main issue scored about 23% in the exit polls that didn't mention "values" it scored about 3%. "Values" can mean anything and it also lets a person take the highroad and they can rationalize that they didn't vote based on being scared (fear) or any other petty issue.

[Maribelle]

8. Had either Kerry or Gore won WV, as Clinton did twice, they would have won the election.

No Democrat has won the presidency without winning West Virginia since 1916.

Facts are stubborn things to Obama's followers.

[underpants]

11. That may well HAVE BEEN

but the battleground this time (aside from the regular ones) will be the Mountain West states (convention is in Denver) and IF the Dem nominee can hold onto white males at the same rate as normal (there is every indication that either one will) so WV being necessary isn't so anymore. Oh and the South is out-don't need it (other than Fla. and Va. will be in play) the Repubs are basically the party of the South now.

[RichGirl]

12. They only like facts if they work in their favor.

They would be screaming to change the rules of MI and FL if the facts were in their favor!

[Window]

31. Project much?

[underpants]

34. Oh I LOVE the bumpersticker sig line thingie

:bounce:

[Window]

35. LOL!

[BlueManDude]

15. Attitudes change, demographics change - the notion that WV has to be won in the fall is silly.

[Maribelle]

26. Well then, you will need your pudding before you can prove your point.

No pudding no proof.

[izquierdista]

20. Just as numbers are for HIllary followers

<2025 = LOSER!

[MattNC]

21. and you need a lesson

in correlation versus causality.

[Maribelle]

25. You would only think that if you believed that West Virginia was merely a random variable.

[MattNC]

44. It is a random variable

but you're too lost in your endless spin for Clinton to realize it.

[OHdem10]

9. WVA is always in play. Democrats who lose WVA lose the

WH.

[DinahMoeHum]

18. IIRC, Dukakis won WVA in 1988 - where did that get him?

Screw that notion anyhow - this is a year of BIG CHANGES.

We need pioneers, NOT historians.

:kick::kick:

[underpants]

22. You are correct. * with one voting for Lloyd Benson

http://www.presidentelect.org/e1988.html

[Tesha]

17. Correct. Thank you. (NT)

[flpoljunkie]

19. This NRA focus helped Bush win West Virginia in 2004 by thirteen points--56% to 43%.

[RichGirl]

24. Yes...

and then Bush got another four years to sink us even deeper....which is why his approval numbers are lower than ever before. Based on your reasoning, if Bush ran again, he would get the same number of votes he got last time. Nobody believes that! Life is different than it was in 2004. When people go to the polls in November, they aren't taking their 2004 notes with them...they'll have new and different views.

You need to look at the past to learn from it. But to treat it like a fact that will repeat itself is wishful thinking. What scares me the most about Obama is how much of his support is based on wishful thinking.

[Window]

27. But, but, but, Hillary says it is.

:rofl:

[Creideiki]

41. With Obama it's not in play. With Hillary it is.

http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_clinton/

[Maribelle]

28. So now, how many states are left in the 50-state strategy?

I was told more than once by Obama's followers Florida and Michigan won't matter in the GE. Now we've apparently invalidated West Virginia, as well.


Dean and his 50 49 48 47 state strategy.

[underpants]

29. I don't know who told you that

Fla and Michigan are always in play. And don't fret about what has happened there they are still going to be close but not out of the picture.

Like I said the 50 state strategy is a good thing and is still viable even in WV.

[virginia mountainman]

30. GROAN...It was not the NRA

It was the backlash, from supporting stupid gun control laws..

You want to blame someone for loosing WVA?!?! Blame Diane Feinstein, and her stupid assed "semi-automatic" rifle ban that pissed a hell of a lot of West Virginians off.

When she was all over the news, declaring that if she could get the votes, Mr and Mrs America, turn them ALL in...She would have..

Since 1994, the pro-civil rights folks have won seats in every election. Hell practically ALL of the new Democratic senators that won in 06, where exceedingly pro-gun.

Some of you keep chanting about the NRA being a repuke ran outfit...look at the Brady Campaign...Sara Brady, and the high officers of that outfit is ALL Republicans...

Now, ask yourself this...Why would a Republican ran organization, like the Brady Campaign, want Democrats to take political suicidal positions (in the vast majority of the nation, gun control IS political suicide)

In short, West Virginia, did not leave the Democrats...Democrats left them...and they know it.

[underpants]

33. I understand that

but they slammed the door once they got in and it ain't coming back open

This is like the THREAT of a fillibuster everyone in DC has decided/portioned it off as such and that is that as far as they are concerned.

The AWB started it but the NRA siezed upon it and at this point we are talking about putting a bullet back in the barrel.

[ieoeja]

36. Agree with most of what you say.

Except for the part about the NRA not being a Republican organization. Technically that is true. But I dropped my NRA membership over the 3-Strikes laws and Neal Knox's "Black Helicopter" craziness. Over the next few years they called me several times asking me to rejoin. The conversations went something like this...

NRA: "Would you like to rejoin."

ME: "While I am vehemently pro-gun, I am quite liberal on most other issues and"

{click}


Did they try convincing me that pro-gun liberals are welcome? No. They hung up on me in mid-sentence. Every. Fucking. Time.

So screw the NRA. I'm surprised the Democrats have never cut their federal funding. I'd bet that is because very few of them even realize the NRA is a federally funded operation.

[theboss]

32. The AWB seriously hurt Dems in West Virginia

The AWB led to the NRA doing what it did.

[redqueen]

37. This may well be the the most interesting election I'll ever see.

[Seabiscuit]

38. Sounds like desperate wishful thinking to me.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

39. Thus speaks the Thundering Turd

Jeff in Milwaukee, WVU class of 1986.

[underpants]

42. Lookee at the WVU alumni association fund raising idea

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

43. I've already got one of them...

Full-sized, no less...

I think that a fundraiser that involved throwing hatchets at Rich Rodriguez, three throws for a dollar, would be HUGE!

[Creideiki]

40. It's in play with Clinton at the top

http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_clinton/

Come on, now, look to reality.