NEW! ABC Poll Numbers!

[Beetwasher]

Gallup can go to hell.

"Among registered voters, 50 percent support Kerry in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 44 percent Bush and 2 percent Ralph Nader — a gain of four points for Kerry and a loss of four for Bush from the pre-convention ABC/Post poll."


http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_bounce_poll_040802.html

Every poll with the exception of Gallup has Kerry getting a bump...Gallup is NOT CREDIBLE....

[Jim Sagle]

1. Yesssssss!!!!!!!!!!

[grasswire]

2. yayyyyyyyyy!

Hooray!

Hooray!

[flpoljunkie]

3. Yes! Thanks! Have been waiting all day to hear this good news!

[mzmolly]

4. Thanks. I sure hope the polls show some *bounce* because I'd like CNN

to shut the F up. :hi:

[0007]

20. Make sure you write CNN and tell 'em to shut the fuck up.

[mzmolly]

21. I did, and I started a thread.

:hi: Make sure you kick it in the spirit of telling CNN to shut the F up. ;)

[David Zephyr]

5. And CNN (Conglomerate Network News) & Bill Schneider Can Kiss My Ass.

Great News, Beetwasher!

[oasis]

26. Bush will regain the lead after CNN airs its Aug.29 presidential tribute.

[jadedcherub]

6. .

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x723740

[Momof1]

7. I wonder if that is what caused the attack, we just

experienced a few minutes ago?

[Beetwasher]

8. HERE ARE THE AWESOMELY ENCOURAGING STATS!!!

Trust Candidate on These Areas:
Trust to Handle Now Pre-convention Net Change
Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
Terrorism Bush +3 Bush +18 Kerry +15
Iraq Kerry +2 Bush +12 Kerry +14
Taxes Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
Education Kerry +13 Kerry +1 Kerry +12
Economy Kerry +11 Bush +1 Kerry +12
Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
Int'l relations Kerry +9 NA NA
Intelligence Kerry +5 NA NA

Kerry is now ahead in just about EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY!!!!

[flpoljunkie]

9. That, my friends, is an 8 point bounce! Terrific, when so few undecideds!

Kerry also leads Bush as "better qualified to be commander-in-chief," by 52 percent to 44 percent! This is meaningful!

[WiseMen]

10. Honestly Folks, the gap between Registered and Likely Voters is Consistent

Gallup tends to emphasized their "likely voter" analysis, while
CBS ABC NBC etc show small bounce for "registered voters." Bush
does better when you limit analysis to folk who have voted
in the past. That has generally been the case in Dem v Repub races.

There is no big difference between polls -- margin of error stuff.

Still lessons to be learned -- Kerry solidifying his base, but not
biting into Bush support.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Gallup Had It 48-48 Among Registered Voters

and 51-47 among likely voters....


That's a significant difference....


CNN is using Gall(o)p to shape the race to favor Bush......

[Frodo]

14. It isn't. Look at the internals

Their results are pretty close.

But everyone want to look at one irrelevant number.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Again .... How Can It Be Close

Gallup Registered Voters

7-30- to 8 -1


Bush 48% Kerry 48%



ABC/Washington Post Registered Voters

7-30 to 8-1


Kerry 50% Bush 44%


Gallup Likely Voters

7-30 to 8-1

Bush 51% Kerry 47%

ABC/Washington Post Likely Voters

7-30 to 8-1

Kerry 49% Bush 47%


That's a six percentage difference in both polls....


message to frodo: not close

on edit- CNN is emphasizing their "horserace" numbers to shape the race for Bush....

[formernaderite]

22. I'm confused as to why the ABC poll has dems at 39% and repubs at 29%...

...is that an accurate breakdown? They polled independants at 29 too.

[Frodo]

25. Memo to DSB - "close"

The polls in question balance their Republican/Democrat turnout expectations differently. But there can only be ONE such balance. Re-calculate either poll to have comparable R/D balance and you have very similar numbers. That's what I meant by "internals".

That "six point gap" is also possibly the bracketing of a 3% MOE with other polls falling in between.


The WashPost poll had a 46/46 tie a little less than a month ago and moved to a 48/46 lead for Bush right before the election. Was this evidence of the Edwards pick having a negative bounce? No, they changed the number of Republicans and Democrats in the poll to relatively overweight Republicans. There was very little movement of how many republicans liked Bush or how many Democrats like Kerry or the relative balance of independents.

NOW they have gone back to roughly the weighting they had a month ago. The results? Over the last month, the combined "bounce" for picking a VP plus the convention totaled 2 points.

This is not the stuff of celebration.

Nor is it cause for great fear. I have said polls matter little at this point for the last couple months. Consistently whether Bush is moving several points ahead or Kerry is.

Wait for the debates. The foils are barely crossed at this point.

[peegee]

12. Had the tv off

It's been such a lousy day. All about terra alerts and polls.
Finally will watch ABC news tonite!!!

[DoYouEverWonder]

13. Screw the numbers

looks at the crowds that are coming out to see Kerry.

This is unbelievable. It is happening everywhere he goes.




Grand Rapids, MI - today

[kymar57]

17. My thoughts exactly DYEW

It seems every stop Kerry & Co make there's 10k-20k people there. Hell, even lining the approach routes to appearances there are people along the road. And these are swing states? I haven't heard or seen anything like that level of enthusiasm for the shrub and thugs roadshow. The media can't seem to manufacture crowds so they just don't mention them.

[radfringe]

30. pics from Scranton PA rally - 7/30

http://radicalfringe.freeservers.com/photo.html

(I was there)

[DoYouEverWonder]

31. Great pics

It must have been a lot of fun to be there.

I can't wait till they come to my area.

[tridim]

15. Cool.. Now that we KNOW Gallup is pure BS

What can we do about it? If a "reputable" polling outfit like Gallup can be bought an paid for by a political party and a network, it's a serious issue and should be addressed via the law. They're using skewed polling data to sway public opinion and the election. It's serious, serious shit, and every bit as bad as BBV and fake felon lists IMO.

[Az_lefty]

18. YEEEESSSSSSSSS! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Got WMD]

19. Good News!!!!

Who cares about the horse race #'s. I love the internals!! 52/44 better Commander in Chief!! The bounce is in the internals, not the horse race.

[Sugarbleus]

23. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh yessssssssssss

soothing news, indeed. Thanks Beet

[VirginiaDem]

24. something I noticed from pollingreport.com

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

I just noticed that if you scroll down through the July polls a lot of the previous polls were done quite close to the Edwards-as-VP bounce(i.e., early to mid July). So the reported smallish bounces may be understated--just a week before the convention (or thereabouts) the Repubs had narrowed the Dem lead down to just a point or two. But in the early July polls the Dems had about a 3 point lead. The bounce should be calculated from the mid-late July average. I'm thinking that the non-Gallup polls average out to about a six-point lead. Seems like we got about a five-point bounce. This is excluding Gallup, which you really have to do unless you want to make the case that Gallup is right and all the others aren't, which is statistically bogus.

[Zynx]

27. Gallup is the outlier. No question about it.

[Andromeda]

28. Yipeeeeeeeeeeee...

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[DaveSZ]

29. ABC Rawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwks!

Right Jim?

;)

[Causidicus]

32. Its too bad that the "registered voter" numbers are pretty much worthless

Check out the "likely voter" numbers in that poll...not as encouraging.

[Beetwasher]

33. Uhhh, Wrong

The likely voter number is bullshit, turnout is going to be huge this election w/ a LOT of first time voters and voters who would not normally be considered "likely". You have NO idea what their methodology is in creating the "likely" category.

[janx]

34. Good point--

How do they in fact judge a "likely" voter? What are they, mind readers? Or do they check into the voting history of everyone they poll?

It doesn't sound very reliable to me.

[Beetwasher]

35. It's Also Interesting That

The pollsters and reporters only started focusing on this "likely" category after Bush's numbers started to nosedive. The "likely" category, for some reason, ALWAYS favors Bush.

[Causidicus]

38. Likely voter numbers do take into account increased enthusiasm,

every election I hear people discounting the likely voter numbers because they want to believe the registered voter numbers, and every election the likely voter numbers are the closest to reality.

Wishing it doesn't make it so.

[Beetwasher]

39. Bullshit!

Please provide evidence of that claim...

"every election the likely voter numbers are the closest to reality."

Let's see the data...

[lunarboy13]

36. Gallup Poll

The problem with the Gallup poll that all the pundits talk about is really one of method. Gallup had two polls, one for registered voters and another for likely voters. Last night on MSNBC's Countdown show they delved into the ways polling organizations decide who a likely voter is. Believe it or not, each organization uses their own methodology and it is really more art than science. This election has a stirred and interested electorate and I don't think you can say with any degree of certainty that just because someone did not vote in 2000 that they are less likely to vote this time. I believe that the registered voter poll is the more accurate of the two. In Gallup's registered voter poll, Kerry led 50-47. But, perhaps even more important and more telling, is what is happening behind these numbers. According to the ABC poll, Bush's lead over Kerry on Terrorism fell from an 18 point lead to a 3 point lead and Kerry's strength of support has also gone up considerably. He has transitioned from "anybody but Bush" to full Kerry support. This strengthens Kerry's poll numbers, which makes it much more difficult for repukes to cut into them.

I think as the week progresses, we'll see a growing "bump" for Kerry. Besides, never trust a poll conducted on a friday and saturday (like Gallup). Think about it, who's at home and who isn't?

[Beetwasher]

37. Actually, It's Not Two Different Polls

It's the same poll using the same data set...The "likely voter" category is merely a subset of the total sample.