I have a different reason for thinking it won't go to the convention:

[Political Heretic]

Not sure fellow Obama supporters will like or agree with me on this one but...

Despite all the vitriol on the boards these days, I hold a minority opinion. I don't actually think Hillary Clinton wants to hurt the Democratic Party. I don't even think she wants to hurt Barack Obama. Yes, I feel that at least the former has been a bi-product of her late-campaign tactics (which I'm sure Clinton supporters will dispute). But I think she wants what any candidate for President wants: to be nominated.

I truly believe that as even the slightest hopes of a nomination fade away, that she will begin to look for the kind of graceful exit that can allow her to leave on a high note, position the party to look good, being a healing process, bridge any divides that, in my opinion, whether intentional or not, her campaign has caused - and she will do these things not only with her own future and legacy in mind, but also with the party and its bid for successes in 2008 in mind.

It would not surprise me to see her concede on or immediately after the Oregon primary, taking two solid state wins and the media goes with it to act like a party elder - get the party to rally around its future nominee. If that doesn't happen - if the campaign still holds on to some obscure hope of a miracle, then I still think that following the last primary in early June, you will see her step aside.

I realize a lot of people are very angry on both sides right now, but for my part, I still think Senator Clinton could go on to be, and be remembered as an excellent democrat. In the Senate, in future cabinet appointments, on the bench, as majority leader, as Governor of New York - any of these possibilities.

I'd just be extremely surprised if in private she was not already mapping out an exit strategy.

[Aloha Spirit]

1. I don't know, I think New Yorkers have found her to be just as distasteful as the rest of us. What

to make of these trend lines?
(Green line is Feb 5, date of NY primary)

[Political Heretic]

2. Most of that will be forgotten after campaign fever has passed.

[thoughtcrime1984]

3. It will be, IF, and only if, she does exit gracefully.

And if she is going to try to force her way onto the ticket, that will not be well-received by many either. If he wants her on the ticket, then I will accept it. It should become somewhat apparent as to how he feels about that possibility after the primaries are finished.

[izzie]

4. The reason sounds good to me but one is never sure.

Some times reason does not fit in with emotions. If your thinking tells you that you should be President it is hard to give up that dream. It is as if you are a loser if you do not make it. Some times any thing will be done to feed ones ego. On top of that she also has to feed Bill's ego. What others want often does not come into play when you are feeding your ego.

[Demit]

5. Sure—if everything works out for us in November, I don't mind her wanting to be remembered as

a tenacious fighter. Who doesn't fold just because conventional wisdom argues she should. It's an admirable quality, too, as long as you're not hurting your own side. I think the jury's out on whether she is doing lasting damage to the party—I think that's a theme being seized on by Republicans, whose whole raison d'etre is to delegitimize Democrats as a party, and by the media, who wants to cultivate a narrative that they can exploit to fill their endless 24-hour news cycles. We'll know in November for sure, but I agree that how she acts after withdrawing—whether she becomes a passionate campaigner for the party's nominee, as all primary losers are supposed to be—will tell the tale.