Study Shows Obama is Wrong About Gas-Tax Holiday

[indimuse]

http://bucknakedpolitics.typepad.com/buck_naked_politics/2008/05/study-shows-oba.html#more


Thought you'd wanna know the TRUTH about BO's real position...
Got up @ 3:am (lol..for real!) and drove over 400 mile today.(Independent Sales) From Palm Beach to Monroe...and around. Every penny helps! The business I'm in has alreay taken a huge hit! So...you know were I stand. Firm. With Hillary!

Obama is running around this country and running political HIT PIECES attcaking Hillary! Accusing her of being "Dishonest!" I am pissed! Barack Obama has been everything BUT honest this entire campaign process and IT'S SICKENING! The absolute Willing Blindess of some of you....wow.



May 06, 2008
Study Shows Obama is Wrong About Gas-Tax Holiday
by Deb Cupples | Just words? Apparently so. These days, Barack Obama seems willing to say just about anything -- no matter how evidently untrue -- just to disagree with Hillary Clinton.

Last week, I covered Obama's misleading claims about not taking money from lobbyists and special interests, when evidence suggests that he has.

Today, Salon points out that Obama has made misleading (or false) claims about recent proposals for a gas-tax holiday. First, a little background:


John McCain was the first to propose a gas-tax holiday for this summer. His idea was just a lifting of the tax, with no counter-measures, that would end up harming us consumers and taxpayers. Apparently, McCain wanted to be lay the foundation for false sound bytes like: "See, I wanted to cut your taxes and lower gas prices, but Democrats were against it."

Being the analytical and savvy person that she is, Hillary refused to fall for McCain's ploy. Instead, she proposed a different gas-tax holiday -- one combined with a tax on oil companies' profits, which would cause oil companies to pay for some of the gas-price reduction.

Note that Obama, as an Illinois legislator, had helped pass a gas-tax holiday (similar to McCain's current plan) for his state in 2000. Knowing that Hillary had just come up with a plan that's better than the plan Obama had supported eight years ago in Illinois, Obama should have jumped at the chance to unify with Hillary -- as a Democrat -- on this one issue.

How did Obama actually respond to Hillary's plan? He said that it wouldn't work. He claimed to know this from experience: that is, he trumpeted far and wide that his own Illinois gas-tax holiday had failed to lower gas prices.

Today, I found a May 2006 report from the National Bureau of Economic Research which states that the Illinois gas-tax holiday did work. (Nod to Salon and No Quarter ) Here's a bit from the report's abstract:http://www.nber.org/tmp/65433-w12266.pdf (National Bureau of Economic Research)

"This paper considers the suspension, and subsequent reinstatement, of the 5% gasoline sales tax in Illinois and Indiana following a temporary price spike in the spring of 2000…. Using a unique dataset of daily, gas station-level data, retail gas prices are found to drop by 3% following the suspension, and increase by 4% following the reinstatements."

In other words, if the NBER study was anywhere near accurate, than Obama's claims were flat out wrong. The big question: why would Obama make such an easily refutable claim?

Back to gas prices: just yesterday at my usual gas station, regular unleaded was $3.72 a gallon. If I could save just 3%, that would amount to about 11-cents per gallon. That might not be much for hybrid-car owners, but it certainly would matter to people driving regular cars -- especially to people who commute to work and fill up their tanks once or twice a week.

Who wouldn't be happier spending $3.61 per gallon than $3.72? And think of the far-reaching ripple effects. Truckers spend a lot of money on fuel, which adds to the cost of our bread and milk and clothing..... It all adds up.

Obama, himself, has publicly acknowledged that Hillary's proposal would likely have a positive short-term effect, just not a huge one:

‘I’m here to tell you the truth,’ Sen. Obama says in a new 60-second ad running in North Carolina and Indiana ahead of Tuesday’s primaries. ‘You’re going to save about $25, $30, or half a tank of gas.’ (MSNBC).

In short, Obama not only made statements that clash with evidence from the NBER's study, but he also flat out contradicted himself.

It gets worse: a new Obama campaign ad falsely uses liberal economist Paul Krugman's words against Hillary. In an April 28 column, Krugman wrote that McCain's tax-holiday proposal "would boost oil industry profits."

Krugman doesn't like Hillary's proposal, but he regards it as harmless and acknowledges that her plan is different from McCain's.

Facts aside, the Obama campaign crafted a TV ad implying that an expert (i.e., Krugman) had said that Hillary's plan "would boost oil industry profits."

In fact (again), Krugman made it clear that he was referring to McCain's proposal. But that didn't stop the Obama campaign from running the false ad before today's Indiana and North Carolina primaries.

Krugman actually called for a retraction if the Obama ad misleadingly quoted him -- not that a retraction would do much to reverse Indiana or North Carolina voters' false impressions at this point. Retraction::: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/05/is-obama-misrepresenting-what-i-said/

It'll be interesting to see what sort of defense Obama's campaign staff comes up with. No, they didn't use Krugman's name in the ad, but he is the columnist who wrote on April 28 that McCain's plan "would boost oil industry profits."

In short, it'll be hard for the Obama campaign to accurately claim that its recent ad had misquoted some other economics expert at the New York Times.


Let's get back to my fundamental question: will Obama say just about anything -- even if untrue -- simply to get some votes? I'll leave that for you to decide.




Anything to get elected.

[Nitrogenica]

1. Anything to get ignored.

[indimuse]

2. that's the WHOLE problem with Obama peeps...

IGNORE TRUTH! @ any cost!

[DontTreadOnMe]

I think we need a fruit and vegetable tax holiday!

just for the summer though. When the good stuff is ripe.
We can all save like $5 for each family and get healthy at thWe can use the 4e same time.


We can use the $5 savings and all go on vacation somewhere.
Thank God we have politicians on our side.

[mcctatas]

8. I think it's more about ignoring those who constanlty post

creatively snipped or quoted articles to prove a point that has been talked to death. If Obama was wrong on the gas tax then so was almost every leading economist in the US. Also, comparing a state gas tax vacation with a federal one is like comparing apples and oranges. Furthermore, Obama did not contradict himself, (again that tricky nuance stuff)

``Nobody thinks'' President George W. Bush would sign such a plan into law, and even if he did it would save the average driver at most $28, Obama said. It also would drain revenue from a government trust fund used to maintain the nation's highways, he said.

Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said last week she doesn't support a gas-tax moratorium.

``What this is, is a strategy to get through the next election,'' because the issue ``polls well,'' Obama said. Asked whether pushing the idea is pandering, he said, ``yes.''

Obama acknowledged voting for a similar plan while serving in the Illinois state legislature -- a vote he called a ``mistake'' -- because ``the oil companies, the retailers'' ended up benefiting most because they raised prices by the amount of the tax cut.

``I voted for it, and then six months later we took a look, and consumers had not benefited at all,'' he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aW9RSo.SyFCk&refer=home

[indimuse]

24. I DON'T support Nancy!

There are economist on opposite who see it differently...and I guess again, you didn't read the entire post..use the links...etc...

[mcctatas]

3. What Krugman actually said...

"I was very clear when I wrote about the Clinton proposal that while I didn’t think it was good policy, it was not the same as McCain’s, and relatively harmless. If the Obama people are suggesting otherwise, they’re being deliberately dishonest."

"If" has to be the most left out word on these hit piece compilations...

[indimuse]

6. there are 3 parts to this post!

there you go again...truth = hit piece...swiftboat...blah blah blow!

[mcctatas]

11. OK...

there are three and now one has been shown to be lacking in "truthiness", give a person time! How long did you spend compiling this and then you expect it to be refuted in total after 30 seconds? :yoiks:

And, btw, I wasn't necessarily saying your post is like those that are so often ignored, I plan on looking into what you claim before dismissing you out of hand...fairness and all that...

[indimuse]

18. The New York Times

The New York Times notes the odd alliance on this issue between McCain and Clinton, who are both hammering Obama for his opposition on the gas tax holiday.

Since a gas tax holiday doesn't look feasible, congressional Dems are pushing an alternative that could give some money back to consumers. "The proposals are expected to include temporarily halting the build-up of the nation's emergency oil stockpile, giving regulators greater authority to investigate and penalize oil companies that engage in price gouging, and seeking to discourage speculative trading in oil and gas markets, possibly by raising the collateral traders must provide.”

“Democrats are likely to propose a temporary ‘windfall-profits tax,’ possibly of 25%, on major oil companies. Companies would be exempt from the tax if they invested profits in domestically produced renewable fuels or expanded refinery capacity or renewable electricity production. Democrats were discussing Thursday how the additional tax revenues might be used, with some advocating rebates for consumers and others backing additional investment in research and incentives for renewable energy."

Obama could use this proposal, like, yesterday.

[mcctatas]

27. We are in bed with the devil when it comes to oil companies..

say the democrats managed to ram a windfall profits tax through congress and even take it farther and say chimpy misplaced his veto pen...End result is the cost will get passed on to the consumer. Until we free ourselves from this or pass substantive regulatory legislation that stops the oil companies from such practices, all of these proposals are just old school feel good politics that will never make any real changes...

[Triana]

4. Leading Economists, Pelosi and most of Congress agreed with Obama. Hillary's is a bullshit plan...

...pretentiously formulated to get votes, NOT to help voters.

Were you aware that Hillary has LOST the nomination? You might want to read the news.

[Webster Green]

5. Dead-enders..

You, and your pals, and your leader.

Clue: It's over! :think:

[AllentownJake]

7. This Primary Season is over

Your candidate has lost but is too stubborn to realize it yet.

Please stop attacking the democratic nominee.

[indimuse]

12. did your vote get counted?

Because I voted! I followed the rules..Obama DID NOT!


Obama wants to Disenfranchise me and Millions more!
Obama Wants To Win By...NOT COUNTING THE VOTES!

You should think about THAT, for a while.


::::His accomplices!!!

[mcctatas]

22. Actually..

and I hate to rain on your outrage parade, both the Obama and Clinton camps are negotiating with the FL and MI democratic parties on a compromise. I agree that individual voters played by the rules, but if anything your outrage should be directed at your state party or the DNC. I feel for you, and I think they should be seated as the rule states (50% of total delegates) for states who break party rules...

[Ddan]

31. I'm sorry to break it to you but . . .

it is to the point that even if Michigan and Florida are counted Obama would still win.


PS. I know that I'm new and I only have 19 posts. That still doesn't change the facts.

PPS. I'm a lover not a fighter

[Dbdmjs1022]

9. 1. 200 economists, including Nobel winners, say he has it right.

2. How about you start attacking McCain instead of our NOMINEE

[ecdab]

14. Spot on. The time has finally arrived for ALL Democrats to set aside

their small differences and focus on their big differences with McCain.

[Stagecoach]

10. Here's a question

Let's say we go with Hillary's gas tax holiday where she says make the oil companies pay the tax for us. Let me ask: Where do you think the oil companies are going to get that money from? Do you think they'll pay out of their own pockets? or do you think they'll artificially raise the price on gas so that the consumer ends up paying it?

[zeemike]

25. You got it right Stagecoach

And they will add on a little more than the tax just to make it worthwhile.
It is just a cheep trick.
And welcome to DU

[Stagecoach]

28. Thank you!

And the problem will only compound itself because when the tax holiday ends, you're going to end up paying what the oil companies jacked the price up to, PLUS the gas tax. Reason being: the oil companies won't lower the price of gas after the gas tax holidays ends, otherwise it'll become obvious they jacked-up the price of gas to make up for the gas tax holiday.

So, as a result, we'll end up with higher gas prices AFTER the gas tax holiday ends than we would if there would've been no gas tax holiday in the first place.

[bowens43]

13. more bullshit...oh welll it's all you have left.

[nomorewhopper]

15. any policy that encourages ppl to buy more gas is an idiotic policy

your post is idiotic as well.

your diagram after your post is also incredibly idiotic.

"white people" thrown under the bus? you kidding?

HOW ABOUT YOU GO FUCK YOURSELF AND DRIVE YOUR GAS GUZZLING BUS INTO THE NEXT STONE AGE. KEEP THE CHANGE

[Bensthename]

16. Why didnt she offer free gas? Pandering on the same level.

She couldnt get either one done. So why didnt she promise somehting bigger?

[Forkboy]

17. K&R. "Anything to get elected." indeed.

[kitfalbo]

19. fail?

This is a repost of one I saw earlier where you were soundly trounced by counters and even better by people who decide to take the time and read the article you posted, and do a little research.

Only thing bigger than an Epic Fail is a repost of one.

[against all enemies]

20. Are all Hillary supporters dishonest or just this one?

[Asgaya Dihi]

21. Studies also showed

that Iraq had WMD, connections to Al-Qaeda, and all kinds of other nonsense. The consensus of experts if we'd had the sense to listen to them instead of media spin would have told us otherwise.

He might have made some mistakes in an ad or something but the basic criticism seems sound to me and the gas tax would be worth opposing if for no other reason than it robs the highway maintenance funds at a time when our roadways are in poor shape and we had a bridge collapse not too long ago with warnings that many others aren't in any better shape than that one was. She claims something will be covered with a new tax from oil companies but she's already spending that money on alternative energy so would be spending the same money twice if she covered this too, at least in promises.

All that aside she's neither President nor in any other way in a position to do any of this, even if she were in office this stuff I'm pretty sure has to pass through a Congress that doesn't seem any more fond of the idea than we are. It's a gimmick.

[enki23]

23. anybody notice a small problem with this study?

i'll just grant, for the sake of argument, that it is absolutely right about what happened in illinois. you can't extrapolate directly from something that worked in one state, one smallish, even if fairly populous portion of the nation, and assume that the effect would be the same if you did the same thing across the entire nation.

[Condem]

26. Hey, indimuse

Are you going to vote for Obama, once he's the nominee? Just axing.

[HooptieWagon]

29. Here's why you're completely wrong

from the article you quoted:

"This paper considers the suspension, and subsequent reinstatement, of the 5% gasoline sales tax in Illinois and Indiana following a temporary price spike in the spring of 2000…. Using a unique dataset of daily, gas station-level data, retail gas prices are found to drop by 3% following the suspension, and increase by 4% following the reinstatements."

Okay. A 5% tax is suspended, yet the price drops only 3%... Oil companies pocket the 2% difference. Then the tax is reinstated and the price rises by 4%. Added to the 2% the oil companies are keeping that's 6% over the pretax price, or 1% higher than the original price with tax. It's a simple thing called "Supply and Demand", you should read up on it, and the oil companies will use it to pocket all they can.

A gas tax is a bad idea.
1) It encourages consumption at a time when we should be discouraging consumption.
2) The price is set by supply and demand. If it is lowered by removing a tax, the oil companies will not lower the full amount, but rather pocket some of the difference.
3) A separate tax levied on the oil companies will just be passed along to the consumer.
4) When the tax is reinstated, the price will be even higher than before, according to the article YOU quoted.
5) money will be taken from highway maintenence at a time when infrastructure like bridges are literally collapsing.

My own thought is the gas tax should be raised. It will discourage consumption. It will stimulate Detroit to develop more fuem efficient cars. The increased tax can be used to subsidize mass transit, alt fuels reasearch, and rebuilding infrastructure. A tax credit can be given to truckers, however I think that their fuel costs are tax deductable anyway. But even if shipping costs rise, it will stimulate local economies to produce themselves, and stop buying crap from China, shipping it to LA, and then trucking it accross the country.

[Catchawave]

30. Instead of calling out "pandering" and "political tricks" , he could

have used his experience in Illinois to explain "why" it wasn't a good idea.

He lost a lot of respect from me, he's just another b.s.'ing POLITICIAN !

[HooptieWagon]

32. Either way, it was still pandering and cheap political stunt.

People aren't going to pay attention to reasons, they'll say he's longwinded and talking down to them (like Gore). People want soundbites... and calling the gas tax holiday pandering and a cheap political stunt is a great soundbite, and all the more so because it's the truth.

[yourguide]

33. INDIMUSE

IT IS OVER. SHE LOST LAST NIGHT. SHE HAS NO PATH TO THE NOMINATION!!!!

PS: Closing arguments begin in the Rezko trial next week. It's over. There is no THERE there either.

Seriously, give it a rest.

PS: