Electoral vote: Clinton still beats McCain, Obama merely ties

[OzarkDem]

Electoral Votes: Clinton 291 McCain 236 Ties 11

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May07.html

Electoral Votes: Obama 264 McCain 263 Ties 11

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May07.html

Given Obama's campaign to alienate Clinton supporters, he's very unlikely to pick up support from her in the key states he needs.

[bowens43]

1. Nonsense

How many times are you going to post this nonsense? Hillary will not be the nominee. Period.

[ObamaKerryDem]

33. Given Obama's campaign to alienate Clinton supporters..

But it's not like her campaign hasn't turned Obama supporters off. I gurantee you that just as many, probably more Obama supporters would be less than enthused about her if she were the nominee (which is a VERY remote shot at this point). BUT, in saying that, I just don't get (or buy) that all these people would actually vote for MCCAIN over the Dem. nominee. I mean, is that not completely counterproductive? These "disenfranchised Hillary supporters" must not care half as much as Hillary says she does about things like Universal Healthcare if they're willing to go that route, all because they're pissed that their candidate didn't win. :eyes: Because if McCain takes office, that and most the other things Hillary talks about will have no chance in hell of happening.

Now I'm a PROUD and active Obama supporter, but I'd still vote for Hillary in a heartbeat if the choice was between her and McCain. I'm not real thrilled with her right now to say the least, but I'd be willing to do whatever it took to avoid 4 more years of Bush madness...the alternative is just soo much worse..

I don't care what some of these polls or "predictions" (which are quite often proven wrong) say. Hillary still has a lot more negatives than Barack and just doesn't have the crossover appeal he does, either. She'll turn out blocks of Repubs who will show up just to vote against her, if nothing else. Sure, they don't love Obama either, lol, but there's just a lot more animosity towards Hillary; she has more baggage. Sure, she probably could still win in Nov. too, as I think most people are just soo sick of all the crap of the past 8 years, but I happen to think Obama can win even bigger. Hillary can't even shake him off and she entered this race as the nearly "inevitable" candidate, with almost everything in her favor! So if she can't even win among her own base, how is she going to do as well in the GE?

This is why Barack is ahead and is pretty much the nominee. :D

[Johnny Battleground]

47. Obama is politically DOA

Wright is the reason why.
His race speech just got thrown into the trash receptacle when he tossed Wright there.
Hope
Change
Unity

Died the day Wright was disowned.

Florida.
Michigan.
Disenfranchised voters in states Hillary won.

Super Delegates Vote Hillary.

[Rainbowreflect]

53. Obama handled the Wright issue correctly.

Hillary was in total agreement with not counting Florida and Michigan until she did not take in all on Super Tuesday as she planned. Suddenly she changed her tune. These issues have be in play for months and Obama still won the most delegates yesterday. It is time Clinton bowed out gracefully.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

2. Obama is the nominee. Hillary is unelectable, period.

[Colobo]

3. Ozark, why are you so adamantly against Obama?

[whatchamacallit]

4. Oh well, that's how the cookie crumbles

:nopity:

[still_one]

5. Is that with or without rush limbaugh listeners responding to those polls?

GE polls mean nothing until a nominee is chosen

[Thrill]

6. YAWN. Call me when the Campaign starts

[The Stranger]

7. hat's great. Thanks for playing - Hlllary lost the nomination, let's work to change those numbers.

[onenote]

8. so tell me, who is the vice presidential nominee for the dems and repubs?

Since you know the outcome of the GE, you must know who actually is on the ticket.

[OzarkDem]

31. a veep choice isn't going to help much

Its hard to find any recent presidential election where a Dem candidate who was at such a disadvantage among popular voters was able to make it up with a counter-balancing VP. It helps a little, but not a great deal.

[Bill McBlueState]

42. it doesn't need to help much

Your OP shows Obama with a 264-263 lead. If the right VP choice switches even one state from 51% McCain to 51% Obama, that could substantially solify Obama's lead.

What this means is that until there's a ticket, you have no idea what effect the VP choice will have.

[madame defarge]

9. coughcough{{{bullshit}}}cough

[brooklynite]

10. Well then, not much point in holding the November election...

...after all, nothing could possibly happen in six months to change people's minds, could it?

[seabeyond]

11. i think hillary alienated her supporters which is one of the issue so many of us

have with her. you kinda reinforced so many who are angry with hillary

i had no favorites

i preferred obama but would support either

it was watching what her and her supporters where doing and how they were eliminating so many dems from the vote in nov that bothered me

not only was it stupid and short sighted, but it lack any integrity and duty on her part

[OzarkDem]

17. She has more support among both Dems and Independents

Sorry, but its the math.

[seabeyond]

20. a fuzzy math. didnt obama pull out popular vote? and obama has always bee credit

with the independent vote.

[PVnRT]

12. Ohio = Strong Dem?

Sorry, that just smells of shenanigans.

[DMorgan]

38. Another bad assumption, NH weak Republican??

With a Dem Governor, 2 Dem Congessmen, one Republican Incumbent Senator about to lose to a Dem in the fall....

NH is NOT about to vote for McSame!

[OzarkDem]

43. Based on the latest polling data

Nothing is guaranteed.

As for Ohio, yes, Clinton can carry it in the GE, Obama can't. That's been demonstrated in many polls during the last year.

[otohara]

13. Should We Have A Country Wide Do-Over?

or should the SD's overturn the pledge delegate vote because Clinton's supporters can't accept loss and agree to support the Dem nominee?

[JimGinPA]

14. You Should Send Her A Donation Then...

So she won't have to keep "loaning" her campaign money.

[OzarkDem]

16. Already have, I want a Dem to win in November

and Obama isn't going to be able to win enough support.

[JimGinPA]

18. Yeah, That Must Be Why He's Beating Her

[OzarkDem]

23. If Obama can't beat McCain., it doesn't matter

It only shows the Dem voting base in this primary isn't good at choosing candidates to beat the opposition.

[JimGinPA]

41. No, You It Means You Just Aren't Good At Choosing A Candidate

[OzarkDem]

45. That's why I didn't choose Obama

nor Kerry before him.

[stahbrett]

15. Bill Clinton was in 3rd place in the polls in June of 1992

He was behind Perot and then-President Bush...

[OzarkDem]

21. This will be a 2 way race

and Obama is not nearly as popular with all voters as Clinton was.

Obama's cult like following isn't going to migrate into the GE. He'll have a much more difficult job winning over voters.

[truebrit71]

28. Say what? How can the guy with the most wins, the most votes and the most delegates NOT be popular..

...with the voters?

You have just disappeared up your own backside with that "logic"..

[OzarkDem]

32. Difference between primaries and general elections

Winning your primary doesn't mean you'll win over other voters in the GE. Happens all the time.

[stahbrett]

29. Clinton was so popular with the voters that he was in 3rd place behind Perot and Bush

Is that your theory? Here's what my theory is... Clinton finally wrapped up the nomination in June of 1992, and once he was able to focus fully on the general election, his poll numbers increased. I think Obama will do similarly... feel free to disagree, of course.

[OzarkDem]

36. As I stated before

Obama is no Clinton. His appeal and charisma to his Dem base doesn't translate to I's and crossover voters.

[ObamaKerryDem]

40. I agree...

In a LOT of ways, ironically, Obama's candidacy is very similar to Clinton's in '92. Both were called "too young", "inexperienced", both came from behind, to attract much excitement and enthusiasm ,both were hit by scandals (Gennifer Flowers, Rev. Wright), both took longer to finally secure the nomination, fluctuating poll numbers, etc, etc.....it's funny, because so many things Bill now criticizes Obama for, he faced himself! :D Ah, selective memory..

[whatchamacallit]

19. give it up

[Vinca]

22. I've got to hand it to you for tenacity, but that doesn't change things.

She won't get the nomination. Somewhere there is a map or poll to prove anything you want it to. It doesn't mean a thing at this point.

[OzarkDem]

48. So we lose the GE, then?

Is that what its all about, just having Obama win the Dem nomination, but let the GOP keep the WH? Don't be surprised if some Dems disagree with you.

Face it, McCain and the news media are going to go after Obama with everything they've got. If he goes into the GE race at a disadvantage, he's going to spend all of his campaign defending his candidacy.

That's a very different campaign dynamic and one that Obama isn't strong on. He doesn't come across well when he's on the defensive.

[Vinca]

55. I think Obama's chance of winning the general is every bit as good as

Clinton's. What do you suppose would happen when McCain's POW heroics were compared to the Bosnia sniper fire tape in a commercial? What do you think will happen when Republicans unite around the common cause of keeping Bill Clinton out of the White House? They're fixated on that because they believe he defamed the office. Each candidate has baggage, but the one with the heaviest load is McCain. He's dragging George W. Bush. I suspect either candidate can win against him, but I think Obama is, by far, the most inspirational candidate I've seen in more than 40 years.

[Upton]

24. Not here

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/victory-lap.html

[sampsonblk]

25. ...because of Clinton's negative campaigning.

Once she's gone from the scene, Obama will be comfortably ahead.

[OzarkDem]

46. Right, and McCain won't say anything negative about Obama either?

Thanks for clearing that up. I was worried for a minute. :sarcasm:

[sampsonblk]

54. McCain won't go as low in the gutter as Hillary has gone. -nt

[AllentownJake]

26. It's over

You lost the war.

[zulchzulu]

27. Obama is going to beat McSame by 9-12% in the GE

The voter numbers are going to be OVERWHELMING.

[OzarkDem]

30. Tell us how

because judging from this map, he has a long way to go.

[washingdem]

34. Obama is going to win the presidency. Get over it.

[OzarkDem]

37. Clap harder

[Occam Bandage]

51. Nah. I don't believe in resurrecting Hillary's dying fairy tale.

[Goodnevil]

35. Tie this

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

39. All any Democrat has to do to win this year is announce that he's not a Republican.

McCain can't win because he has that pesky, stigmatic, and, despised,(R) behind his name. Hell, I even think that someone as despicable as Hillary could beat McLunatic.

[SoonerPride]

44. You are still bad at math

Hillary lost.

Unite or die.

[Orsino]

49. Applying the Electoral College to a party primary is still bogus. n/t

[Occam Bandage]

50. Obama's the nominee. Get over it.

[Bread and Circus]

52. This "such and such poll sez" garbage is such bullshit...

With your logic, why even have a primary at all? Why not just have Gallup do a poll in January and based on that decide who is most electable rather than go through all of the problem of real people voting? :puke:

The Clinton team can shove that bullshit up their asses.