Zogby: NC: Obama 46% Clinton: 37% ; Indiana Obama: 43% Clinton: 42%

[book_worm]

The interesting thing about the NC numbers is the high number of undecideds. Note that they are undecided or for somebody else. Is Edwards still on NC ballot? It could be, if he is, that some voters upset about the tone of the campaign may vote as a protest for Edwards. Also 17% of AA voters are undecided. They should, like other states, go heavily in the end for Obama. Even if Hillary won undecideds 2-1, Obama would have a double-digit win in NC. Indiana is, I think, more interesting and volatile.

North Carolina, Obama leads in all age groups with one exception - those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied. But Clinton closed the gap in some age groups, compared to yesterday's two-day tracking report.


Democrats - North Carolina
5-1/2
4-30/5-1

Clinton
37%
34%

Obama
46%
50%

Someone else
8%
8%

Not sure
9%
8%



Clinton expanded her lead among white voters in North Carolina, and narrowed the gap among African American voters, where Obama leads by a 73% to 10% margin. Among men, Obama leads 50% to 35% - an improvement for Clinton - and he continues to lead among women voters as well - winning 43% support to Clinton's 39% backing, largely on the strength of support for Obama from African American women.

In Indiana, the two Democrats were statistically deadlocked, with Obama at 43% and Clinton at 42%, with 15% either favoring someone else or yet undecided.


Democrats - Indiana
5-1/2
4-30/5-1

Clinton
42%
42%

Obama
43%
42%

Someone else
7%
7%

Not sure
8%
9%


Clinton holds an edge among Catholic and Protestant voters, and among older voters, as she has in other states that have voted earlier this year. Obama leads among younger voters and among a key middle-age demographic - those age 35 to 54. This was a group that went for Clinton in the recent Pennsylvania primary, helping to propel her to the 10-point win she enjoyed there.

Obama continues to lead in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama's hometown Chicago media market, and in Indianapolis. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women. Clinton easily won Ohio in the Democratic Party presidential primary on March 4.

Reverend Jeremiah Wright Impacts the Race

The statements of Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, have had some impact on the race in both states, as 11% of Obama supporters in Indiana and 13% of his supporters in North Carolina said they were less likely to support him because of the Reverend's comments. Wright made a much-ballyhooed appearance at the National Press Club in Washington last Monday.

In North Carolina, 19% who said they were less likely to support Obama because of Wright's comments said they have changed their votes in the last two weeks. In Indiana, 24% who said they were less likely to support Obama because of Wright's comments have changed their minds in the last two weeks.

Democrats Face Possible Defections in the Fall Election

In both North Carolina and Indiana, 19% of Democratic voters would defect to Republican John McCain in a general election match-up pitting McCain versus Obama. In a prospective race between McCain and Clinton, 17% of Democrats said they would defect to McCain.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Thanks. Link.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1496