THE SHIFT IS ON: NEW 4-DAY TREND ACROSS PA POLLS shows 1) Clinton down 2) Undecideds up 3) Obama up

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

The MOST RECENT PA polls (with all polling conducted on the 12th, 13th, 14th, and 15th) reveal an amazing shift. Each consecutive day, more PA voters have left Clinton, more have become undecided, and more have gone to Obama. This snapshot demonstrates what a shifting electorate should look like: the collective change of voters from pro-Hillary to not-Hillary/not-Obama to pro-Obama.

Disclaimer: conclusions from a meta-look like this across pollsters/methodologies is far from a sure thing.

With that caveat, here's how it looks (and these are the ONLY three PA polls we currently have for polling wholly within the 12-15th that I can locate):

12th-14: SUSA has it Clinton 54, Obama 40, Undecided 3
14th: Rasmussen has it Clinton 50 (down 4), Obama 41 (up 1), Undecided 9 (up 6)
14-15th: PPD has it Clinton 42 (down 8 more), Obama 45 (up 4 more), Undecided 13 (up another 4)

This four-day snapshot shows Clinton support moving to Undecided and to Obama. If Obama can capture only 38% of this growing batch of Undecideds as reported by PPP, he'll have a PA win wrapped.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

[phrigndumass]

1. Can't wait to see how the debate tonight shakes those polls up

Good news!

:toast:

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

2. [clink]

[Eurobabe]

3. Obama by a hair. n/t

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

5. here's hoping.

[muryan]

7. As much as I'd like to see that

I'm not terribly optimistic. I am however extremely positive that any her margin of victory will be stamped out by a bigger margin in North Carolina.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

8. last night's "debate" might actually help that trend to him

[Zachstar]

9. That would be wonderful but it is just so unlikely.

It will be more like Clinton by 3 and Obama with a net delegate gain.

[Bensthename]

4. The tide is turning. And Hillary's time is running out.

She over played her false outrage. Woops. :popcorn:

[ORDem]

6. kick

:kick:

[tiptoe]

10. The Undecideds and PA regional weights (One pollster, PPP, 3-weeks, trends by region)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5533940&mesg_id=5533940

Clinton has been well-known since 1992 while Obama became a national figure in 2004. Therefore, Clinton can be considered to be the incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote , especially when the incumbent is unpopular - and Clinton's negatives are much higher than Obama's. Assuming Obama wins 75% of the undecided vote in PA, the adjusted 5-poll average is 50-50%. If Obama continues to close the gap, he could win PA – but only if the votes are fairly counted.

source: Fat Lady Rising: Why Obama Should Win PA (April 17)

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

11. excellent--thanks, tiptoe.

[tiptoe]

12. K & R !