Found some poll cross tabs on PA race, Clinton winning Pittsburg by 18%, Obama Philly by 18%

[usregimechange]

A Quinnipiac University poll released this week showed Clinton leading Obama in Pennsylvania by a narrowing margin - 50 percent to 44 percent.

What was striking was the difference in the numbers from one big city to the other.

Clinton led, 57-39, in Allegheny County.

Obama led, 55-37, in Philadelphia and 43-42 in the suburbs.
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/elections/17539339.html

Ironically I projected the Allegheny county would go for Obama as it has a fair amount of Blacks and is highly educated:



Pittsburgh is centrally located in Allegheny County. Allegheny county has an African American population of 13.3%, which is under the cutoff but it is also significantly educated with 28.3% with a Bachelors degree or higher.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5088717

[MadBadger]

1. Isnt Pittsburgh a big white working class city?

A group she does well with.

[usregimechange]

10. That is the traditional logic but the demographics favor Obama there

More educated folks, more blacks...

[JVS]

11. Old people.

There are some universities there, but Pittsburgh is consistently ranked one of the worst places to be single in the US because a huge proportion of young people have to leave in order to find work.

[usregimechange]

16. +65 and older are just 1.8% higher than the state average in Allegheny County

[usregimechange]

17. 5.9% higher than the state average of those with a Bachelors or higher there

[usregimechange]

14. More African Americans than state average and almost all counties save Philly, Chester, and suburbs

[gateley]

2. With your laser-sharp understanding of voting demographics

"Ironically I projected the Allegheny county would go for Obama..."

You could get a job with HRC's campaign. Mark Penn, look out! :evilgrin:

[usregimechange]

8. It isn't over yet. I haven't change my projection based on this one poll and

If you click on the DU link which contains the PA projections you will find how it worked out in Mississippi.

[gateley]

9. Will do --

but even before I do that, I can assure you I have more faith in your projections than in Mark Penn's.

[rug]

3. If true, Clinton has the rest.

[napi21]

4. THAT is a more frightening map than you might realize!!!!

You see all those Clinton blue/gray counties? THAT is rural PA! Remember the comment Pa. is Pgh & Phila with Alabama in the middle? Well that's exactly what you're seeing there! All of them are PUB Country folks!

We can only hope that they are sparsly enough populated that Pgh & Phila voters will vastly outnumber them.

[AllentownJake]

5. Finding democrats

In some of those counties is like looking for a Klansmen in Harlem.

[napi21]

6. YES! And if Hillary wins, don't you think that means the Dem would lose

the State in the GE? THAT'S what I meant by frightening!

[AllentownJake]

7. Fast Eddie

Won the governship by a landslide by carrying 13 counties.

[woolldog]

12. Which counties?

[AllentownJake]

13. Wikipedia it

Basically Philly, the Philly subburbs and Pittsburg.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. According to the results of Fast Eddie's 2002 election

as noted here: http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/1772031/detail.html

he carried 18 counties - Allegheny, Beaver, Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Delaware, Fayette, Greene, Lackawanna, Lawrence, Lehigh, Luzerne, Montgomery, Northampton, Philadelphia, Schuylkill and Washington. The SW and the SE of the state. Note too that many other counties in PA have much lower populations and tend to be repuke.

Not sure of what happened in his last election but it was probably similar. However the political demographics have changed, in some cases quite dramatically, in some of these counties.

[woolldog]

18. fascinating, thanks

[AllentownJake]

20. Oops

I mixxed up the primary and the GE.

[usregimechange]

19. Kerry won the state with about that many