DIFFERENT ROUTES to the WH...

[polichick]

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro...

Two different maps: On TODAY and Morning Joe, NBC’s Tim Russert took at a stab at November’s electoral map. And this morning, we do the same, to show how different Clinton’s and Obama’s paths to 270 are. This is where we start, and we will be updating this regularly between now and November.

Obama vs. McCain
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42)
Toss-up: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (112)
Lean McCain: AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, MT, NC (81)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (135)

Clinton vs. McCain
Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Lean Clinton: AR, MN, OR, WA, WI (44)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)
Lean McCain: CO, LA, MO, NV, VA (47)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (174)

<http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/03/854183.aspx>


Did anyone see Chuck Todd talking about this today?? The times they really are a' changin' ~ in lots of ways!

[SoCalDem]

1. My Obama map

[polichick]

3. Except PA will go to Obama in the GE - I guarandamntee it! :)

[FrenchieCat]

5. Mighty good!

[thereismore]

6. That's right, FL and OH have gone to the dark side. PA is Barack's too. nt

[Texas Hill Country]

2. so basically, clinton is more electable? nice.

[polichick]

4. Only if you're stuck in the old ways of the old days...

I think those "toss up" states will go to Obama, including PA.

[polichick]

7. imo just recognizing that there are different routes for a Dem to get there...

...is a step in the right direction.

[Skinner]

8. That's fascinating.

Here is color-coding so you can see the differences:

Black = No change
Blue = Changes, but stays on Dem side
Purple = Possible toss-ups, or changes from D to R (or vice-versa)
Red = Changes, but stays on Rep side

Obama vs. McCain
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42)
Toss-up: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (112)
Lean McCain: AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, MT, NC (81)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (135)

Clinton vs. McCain
Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Lean Clinton: AR, MN, OR, WA, WI (44)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)
Lean McCain: CO, LA, MO, NV, VA (47)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (174)


In a nutshell, the advantages of either Dem candidate:

Obama:
WA = Base Dem
CO, MO, NV, VA = Toss Ups.
GA, MS, MT, NC = Move in our direction, but still Lean Republican

Clinton:
NJ = Base Dem
AR = Leans Dem.
FL = Toss-up.

[polichick]

9. Thanks - much easier to see! :)

[NJSecularist]

10. I'd put NJ in the base Obama section.

But this looks very good, and the way I would break it down on both sides.