Thanks...
To me this still sort of validates my idea that when republicans see that a candidate is polling way above Bush, they hire someone to do a poll in order to show Bush is not doing so poorly, in order to effect effect public image, and this frequently has an effect on the undecided. There tends to be a tendency in Social Psychology which states that you cab only change the mind of people who have not made a decision, and also, of herd mentality, which indicated that most people will want to support a person who seems most likely to win. Wisconsin is an important state, and so Bush is very very interested in trying to look like he can win a race in that state, at least among the undecided. This has happened in a number of states. They clue to me lies in the fact that the compnies that they hire to do the polls are not the same ones that have don other polls, like ARG, or Zogby, but someone like Mason Dixon, Elway, or this Badger Poll.
Kerry was doing very well in both Oregon and Washington State IN Oregon in ppolls like Research 2000, done 5/8 -5/14 Kerry does 50 percent to Bush's 46 percent in a poll with a 4 percent MoE.
Right after this polls dates are over, Riley Research Associates does a poll showing Kerry with 39 percent and Bush with 44 percent in a polls done 5/5-5/10. And if you go back and look at all of the past polls n that state, Oregon. you see:
Bush 44% Kerry 39% other 6% Riley Research Assoc. 5/5-10/04 3.51%
Bush 46% Kerry 50% other Research 2000 5/6-8, 10/04 4%
Bush 45% Kerry 47% Nader 3%
Bush Kerry 68%
Kucinich 18% Nader
Bush 46% Kerry 48% other American Research Group 5/3-5/04 4%
Bush 45% Kerry 45% Nader 5%
Bush 46% Kerry 48% other Research 2000 4/25-29/04 4%
Bush 45% Kerry 46% other 6% Rasmussen Research 4/25/04 4.5%
Bush 43% Kerry 43% Nader 8%
Bush 47% Kerry 45% Nader 1% Univ. of Oregon 3/19-4/7/04 4.7%
Bush 40% Kerry 45% Nader 5% Tim Hibbitts 3/4/04 4.5%
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htmVirtually every poll in this state show Kerry in the lead, but because of the results of this latest Riley and Associated poll, they have given Oregon a Pink, leaning towards Bush rating.
Which I find most amusing
If you look at Washinton State, which early on was a Kerry given, you have almost no polls with Bush in the lead.
Same thing in California, where Kerry had double digit leads against Bush until one recent poll by SUSA. for Several tlevision outlets.
But I greatly distrust local media outlets, as a local university in my state whose head is the local mayor who just left office due to local term limits, and is a republican, without a doctorate, who was made president of this university in rather suspect circumstances, has the University do a Florida poll, which results in a polls Showing Bush with double digit lead in FLorida, which is contrary to every other poll.