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Edited on Fri Mar-21-08 09:13 PM by adoraz
I believe this would be Hillary's best shot at President:
dropping out right now.
Let me run down all the possible scenarios I see:
1. Hillary stays in and wins the nomination: Aside from the fact that it will be next to impossible, there is not any chance in hell she would be President. In order to do this, her campaign would either need to completely destroy Obama, or overturn his pledged delegate count. Those are the facts. If she gets the Supers to overturn the pledged delegate count, it will completely destroy the party and any chance of her beating McCain. Her support from blacks could easily go down to the low teens, and that alone would be enough to not allow her to win the GE.
So, that leaves two more possibilities:
2. She drags this all the way to the convention and brings Obama down (but she loses the nomination). She doesn't gain the support of the Supers. She would clearly have a zero percent shot at VP. A lot of Hillary supporters are saying "Then she could win in 2012 if Obama loses!!". This is dead wrong. If she brings this to the convention, she will be the Nader of the party. Did you all see Nader's support in 2000 vs 2004? Why did nobody vote for him in 04? She will not be forgiven by the party and especially not Obama supporters. Look at us, we are 8 years past the 2000 election and we are STILL extremely pissed. Who are we blaming for losing? Not Bush, but Nader. If Hillary takes this to the convention and causes Obama to lose the GE, she WILL without any doubt be Nader and have zero chance at being the nominee in 2012.
3. She drops out today. This seems like a BRILLIANT plan! If she does this, she would instantly gain the respect of most Obama fans. She would certainly not be turned into Nader if Obama loses the GE. She would be looked at very differently for peacefully bowing out. I know that if Hillary dropped out today and endorsed Obama, I would have a very high respect for her and would consider voting for her in 2012 if Obama lost. Or hey, maybe even 2016. The great thing is she could run again sometime in the future without half or more of the party completely destroying her.
So, that is just my take.
If anyone wants to see Hillary as President, her best and only chance is to drop out and endorse Obama.
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