Poll: Bush and Kerry tied in PA (but really bizarre internals)

[mobuto]

I don't know if this has yet been posted, but a Issues PA/Pew Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pennsylvania Economy League and the Pew Charitable Trusts. April 16-25, 2004. N=867 registered voters statewide. MoE ± 4 (total sample) came out today.

Overall: Bush 42, Kerry 42, Nader 5, Other/Unsure 11.

Republicans: Bush 80, Kerry 8, Nader 4, Other/Unsure 8.

Democrats: Bush 12, Kerry 75, Nader 3, Other/Unsure 10.

Independents: Bush 35, Kerry 40, Nader 12, Other/Unsure 13.

Men: Bush 42, Kerry 46, Nader 4, Other/Unsure 7.

Women: Bush 42, Kerry 38, Nader 6, Other/Unsure 14.

Source: http://www.pollingreport.com/sub/pa2004.htm (Subscription Required)


Two minute analysis:

So Kerry's leading among men, but not among women, and Nader peels off more votes from Bush than Kerry. In other words, this is very strange. It may just be that men are paying more attention right now, overall, than women. Support of both for Bush is the same, but while the other men are pretty much all going for Kerry, women are largely undecided. Perhaps this is because Kerry's emphasized his military service so much, rather than his strong support for issues traditionally most important to women voters - education, health care and a woman's right to choose. I don't know. But in any event, that 14% of women who are undecided are going to start paying attention at some point, and I suspect they'll go for Kerry. What's also noticeable is that Kerry leads among Independent voters - it will be great if that continues.

[aquart]

1. What woman would vote for Bush? Even not paying attention?

What the hell is going on in PA?

[mobuto]

2. Well...

[Catt03]

6. My family lives in Pa

and the women are delusional.

They happen to have respectable incomes, live in one of those Pa small towns and think they are now a little better than working people. They are against welfare of any kind, for any reason. They are against abortion although have had them. They are Catholic and preach Catholicism but rarely go to church. They are educated but do not read except for fashion magazines and catalogs nor do they have a clue about what the issues are. Their favorite television show is "The Bachelor."

The men are pretty much the same. Very religious and good old boys...bubbas. They really believe that Iraq should be nuked.

They are all Republicans.

Remember .....between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia is Alabama.

(no disrespect toward Alabama Democrats)

[IronLionZion]

8. The liberals in Harrisburg, Reading, State College, Johnstown, etc.

would disagree.

There are lots of good Democrats in the "Alabama" part of PA. Philly and Pitt didn't win it for Gore on their own.

Keep in mind that Pitt is like 40% repub and the suburbs for both cities are like 99% Republican.

[mouse7]

3. Somone should have tossed the results as skewed and redone it

That's SO far outside the historical pattern and other current national polling that it's obviously a skewed result. It screams for a do-over.

[GOPBasher]

4. I agree.

Something is seriously wrong here. This can't be right.

[Thrill]

5. Nadar has to drop

out

[WVhill]

9. Maybe this has something to do with Kerry's emphasis on job losses.

It might be interesting to look at PA's job loss statistics. If a family man has lost his job and has been unable to reenter the job market at his previous salary, why would he vote for Bush? The polls might be very revealing after Kerry finishes his "jobs" tour. I think this is one of the areas that Bush is really vulnerable. While a lot of indicators are saying the economy is improving, a lot of men lost decent paying jobs and had to settle for less to find a job.

[Kathleen04]

7. 12% of Independents for Nader??

All I have to say is hmmmmmm....

edit: spelling

[mobuto]

11. That I believe

Independents and Nader voters share a lot in common - they don't care about politics and for some reason they think there's either no difference between the two parties, or that neither one of them has any compelling take on the issues. In other words, they think differently than we do. I think they're nuts.

[JI7]

10. men/women support for Bush is same, maybe it's the wives

women who vote for Bush usually do so because their husbands want them to.

Kerry hasn't really started campaigning in pennsylvania yet which could explain his numbers among women and men. the numbers are not bad considering kerry hasn't done much in the state. he just campaigned there about a week or 2 ago. i'm sure he will campaign more once today's primary is over and the attention on the gop senate primary moves to the presidential race.

[Lugnut]

12. I'd like to see

My husband even think about telling me who to vote for! HA!

[troublemaker]

13. If these numbers are accurate, there are 2 explanations

1) ABORTION. PA is the craziest damn state on Abortion. In many ways more extreme than the deep south. I'd be interested to see the gender breakdown by age; whether there's a vast population of pro-life Catholic widows.

2) The real explanation: Women always decide later. The female undecideds are double the male figure. (14% - 7%) Most should break for Kerry eventually.

[dusty64]

14. Very bizarre.

This poll seems like crap.