Pennsylvania will end up like Ohio for Clinton then the race will be over. Obma wins.

[Quixote1818]

Sure, I think she will win Pennsylvania just like she won Ohio. The press will spin it as a big deal then soon after, Obama will win North Carolina, which is almost as big as Pennsylvania and a number of other states and Pennsylvania will be forgotten just like Ohio. The dialog will then turn back to Obama being STILL ahead and Clinton not being able to keep the momentum going after Pennsylvania and the race will essentially be over.

[meow mix]

1. yup, cant wait! the party will get in line very fast.

its gonna be amazing

[sorrybushisfromtexas]

3. Agreed

It is all about the math. Clinton people just can't or won't do math.

[DebJ]

2. We do seem to be getting a response for Obama that is a lot

larger than what I saw in 2004, here in York / Hanover

[PseudoIntellect]

4. I think it's strange that Hillary is comfortably ahead of Barack in the polls, yet

they are about tied against McCain. Any explanation for that?

Plus, it pretty much disproves the whole "whoever wins the big states is the only one who has a chance to win it in the GE" BS.

[loveangelc]

5. she's comfortably ahead in which polls?

[PseudoIntellect]

24. Sorry, I guess I didn't clarify. I just meant the PA polls.

[billbuckhead]

6. Hillary's opponent can't win the big ones because of the white working class

In the general election, many of these voters will switch to McCain.

[meow mix]

8. at least thats your dream.. too bad Obama wins more swing states.

you guys must hate facts they make you look like an idiot

[billbuckhead]

29. Yeah like Hillary's opponent won Ohio

[krawhitham]

12. most of who will vote Democratic in NOV no matter what

I know my parents in Ohio who voted for Hill will vote for who ever is the Democratic nominee is

[qnr]

16. Sure, we might vote Democratic, but guess what, it'll be a write-in, to show our disapproval n/t

[JVS]

15. You do realize that the white working class lives in every state in the union, right?

It's not as though you can go to Wisconsin or Illinois and suddenly this group ceases to exist.

[movonne]

7. Maybe that is because some of the hillary people will vote mc cain or

some of the mc cain people would vote for Obama..

[bilgewaterbill]

9. Ummm, What??

[krawhitham]

10. link to polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pennsylvania.html

[BenDavid]

11. If it is found that obama lied about not being at the church when

any sermon preached the last 20 years by mr wright that were anti white, anti Jew, anti israel, blaming white america for the plight of blacks then obama might not make it to the Pa. debate....

[David__77]

17. Are you saying white American ISN'T to blame for the plight of Blacks?

Are you serious??

Obama will be nominee. I hope you will support him. I will support the Democratic nominee in November.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. That's the one wild card

I mentioned it in a post on tonight's Olbermann thread, mirroring what you said here.

It was incredibly poor political instinct by Obama to assert that claim, about not being present during the controversial remarks. It can't help him 1%, and major potential to backfire. He simply needed to denounce the pastor sooner and more thoroughly. When you leave the door open with an excuse like that, at the height of the controversy, it's guaranteed literally thousands of people will investigate your claim -- perhaps even a few journalists -- and you're sunk if you erred.

It might not even be a lie. Just an error, caught up in the moment and not realizing you would ever run for president, and it could be an issue. But everything blends together now.

[tabasco]

26. Hillary has already proven herself to be a liar.

She lied on national tv just like her hubby.

"I didn't have time to get those tax returns and White House records made public."

LMAO!

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Most likely correct, unless she wins Florida and Michigan on re-vote

Combined with an Obama erosion of some sort.

I'm a longtime sports bettor, and now a Hillary supporter after Edwards dropped out. It sickens me the wrong candidate (i.e. less successful president) is likely to emerge but I'm hardly going to ignore the reality; Hillary needs a multi level parlay to fall her way, and parlay bettors inevitably are stung by the math. She requires every one of the following:

* Re-votes agreed to and finalized in Florida and Michigan
* Win Pennsylvania
* Win West Virginia and many other "lesser" races
* Win Florida on re-vote
* Win Michigan on re-vote
* Avoid controversy of her own
* Obama downfall via pastor remarks, or otherwise
* Polls shift to Hillary advantage nationally vs. Obama
* Polls shift to Hillary advantage nationally vs. McCain, in comparison to Obama vs. McCain
* Super delegates significantly swayed in her direction, via all of the above

Wow. That's a load. Not something I would want to depend on. And I might be ignoring at least one variable. Oh yeah, balanced treatment by the media. Forget about it.

[metalluk]

14. Wishful thinking.

Clinton will win big in PA. She will win in WV, IN, KY, and Puerto Rico. She will narrowly lose NC. She may even win OR. She will win a Florida re-do by more than she won it originally. There will be a re-do in Michigan, but the result won't help either candidate very much. She will close the gap in elected delegates to around 30-40. Obama will take MT and SD, but his delegate gain in those states will be negligible. Clinton will win the popular vote and all of the large states except IL. This will provide enough "cover" for the superdelegates to do their job, which is to protect the interests of the Democratic Party.

The analysts working for the Democratic Party will conduct a state-by-state analysis of each candidate's chances of winning the general election. The remaining uncommitted superdelegates will then give the nomination to the person they expect to be the most electable candidate. Stay tuned until August to find out who that is.

[AX10]

22. She will also have a narrow popular vote lead when all is done.

[Quixote1818]

28. Wishful thinking? I am no huge Obama fan. The wishful thinking is on your part

clearly.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

19. what makes you think he will win NC?....NC is nothing like SC

[jgraz]

20. Not so fast. If the MI revote is scheduled for June 3rd, Hillary's gonna be here a while

Remember when we all said she'd drop out if she didn't win TX and OH? Well, she lost TX, but she's still here.

[Justice Is Comin]

21. Yup the super deciders

have frozen their thoughts about going over to obamamoff like a fudgesicle.

Florida will write his epitaph.

[David__77]

25. No Florida delegates without Obama's agreement.

You're getting ahead of yourself. Fact is that Obama could get few of the remaining supers and still get a majority at the convention. We will see.

[rocktivity]

23. She'll have to win with at least 64% for it to really matter.

If it's by a narrow margin like Texas, it will officially be the beginning of the end, because she'll have to win the remaining contests by even more.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Hoof Hearted]

27. Obma? LOL.

The supers are quietly running under the O-fence to the other side as you sleep.

[Avalux]

30. Who is Obma? Apparently Edwards' Iowa delegates didn't read your post.

And I dare you to prove your statement about Superdelegates.

[BlueJac]

31. Hillary just can't do the math.......

How could she lead the nation?

[mod mom]

32. OHIO Still has a 126,443 PROVISIONALS TO COUNT for watch for changes in delegate allocation:

here were 126,443 provisional ballots cast statewide in the March 4 primary, compared with 129,432 votes cast in the 2006 general election, when there were 735,000 more voters than in last week's election.

-snip

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/03/13/absentee.ART_ART_03-13-08_B1_3A9KKBB.html?adsec=politics&sid=101



The 2006 general election shows 9.7% absentee ballots rejected. Better performance than provisionals at 19.2% rejected, but something to keep in mind.

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/ElectionsVoter/results2006.aspx?Section=1840

Counting begins next week.

Provisional ballots are usually concentrated in high urban areas as well as universities, so my best guess is these will benefit Obama in regards to delegate increases and overall numbers.

[1776Forever]

33. Obama Cuts Into Clinton's Delegate Lead Among Elected Officials

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0OkW8Ml8ljw&refer=home

Obama Cuts Into Clinton's Delegate Lead Among Elected Officials

By Julianna Goldman and Catherine Dodge

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama has pulled almost even with Hillary Clinton in endorsements from top elected officials and has cut into her lead among the other superdelegates she's relying on to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

Among the 313 of 796 superdelegates who are members of Congress or governors, Clinton has commitments from 103 and Obama is backed by 96, according to lists supplied by the campaigns. Fifty-three of Obama's endorsements have come since he won the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, compared with 12 who have aligned with Clinton since then.

(snip)

The same holds true in Ohio, which Clinton won, and Pennsylvania, where voter surveys say she is leading in the April 22 primary. Polls show Obama does as well or better than Clinton against McCain in those crucial swing states.

In Iowa, a February Des Moines Register poll showed Obama beating McCain 53 percent to 36 percent, while McCain beat Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent.

That is one of the reasons he's won support from governors in Republican-leaning states, including Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Iowa's Chet Culver.

``It comes down to electability in red states like Iowa,'' Culver said this week.

Among pledged delegates, Obama has 1,390 to Clinton's 1,248, AP's unofficial estimate shows. A total of 2,025 delegates is needed for the nomination.

Even if Clinton scores a net gain of 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, Obama can make that up with wins in smaller states such as North Carolina and South Dakota, which vote later.

...........

And that is the cold hard facts!!!!!!!!!