ALL polls have him significantly ahead, he has strong organization on the ground, and he played to another overflow arena tonight and had a very successful town hall today. I say he takes it by at least 10%, but probably more like 15% to 20%.
Obama Favored Over Clinton in Mississippi
By NICK TIMIRAOS
March 10, 2008
Sen. Barack Obama won the unusually robust Wyoming caucuses Saturday and heads to Mississippi today looking to regain some of the momentum he lost last week when Sen. Hillary Clinton claimed victories in the Texas and Ohio primaries.
The Illinois senator is favored to win tomorrow's Mississippi primary, where more than one third of the state's electorate is African-American. The primary is also open to Republicans and independents, who have favored Sen. Obama but who polls show may favor Sen. Clinton in the state.
Sen. Obama leads his rival 58% to 34% in Mississippi, according to a poll Friday by American Research Group. He holds an even stronger advantage, 66%-31%, among registered Democrats in the state, while Sen. Clinton leads by 13 points among independents and Republicans.
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• Complete coverage | Video reports | SlideshowWhile Sen. Clinton has traditionally drawn more support from women than men, the poll found that men in the state favor Sen. Obama by seven points, and women favor him by a 37-point margin. And while 12% of the 600 likely Democratic voters surveyed said they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary, nearly 21% said they would never vote for Sen. Obama.
Sen. Clinton made two stops in Mississippi last week, and her husband traversed the state Friday. But the New York senator will focus today and tomorrow on Pennsylvania, which doesn't vote until April 22. Sen. Obama makes stops today in Columbus and Jackson, Miss.
Both candidates aggressively campaigned in Wyoming, the least-populated state in the country, which offered just 12 delegates. Sen. Obama took seven delegates and won 61% of the more than 8,700 votes cast, to 38% for Sen. Clinton, who claimed five delegates. Only 675 voters turned out for the 2004 caucuses.
Barack Obama is in Mississippi a day before the primary and is leading Hillary Clinton in the polls. Clinton, however, is focusing on Pennsylvania.
The heavy campaigning and voter turnout reflects the growing intensity of a Democratic race where neither candidate is likely to win an outright majority of pledged delegates. Some 33 delegates and seven superdelegates are up for grabs in Mississippi, and 158 delegates and 29 superdelegates are at stake in Pennsylvania. Overall, Sen. Obama lead 1,578-1,468 on Sunday, according to the Associated Press; 2,024 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
After tomorrow, only 10 scheduled contests remain, but the Democratic National Committee is considering how it should treat two states, Michigan and Florida, that it stripped of its delegates for moving up their primaries in violation of party rules.
Sen. Obama has done well in the Deep South, while Sen. Clinton has scored wins in her former home state of Arkansas and in Tennessee. Sen. Obama won Alabama and Georgia by wide margins on Super Tuesday, and he scored a big primary win in South Carolina's January primary. African-Americans accounted for more than half of all voters in South Carolina and Georgia, both of which Sen. Obama won by nearly 30 percentage points.
Both campaigns are running ads in the state. Sen. Clinton has a radio ad in which the announcer reminds voters of her "18 years as our neighbor in Arkansas" while Sen. Obama has a radio ad that touts his "Christian faith."
The same Obama ad takes aim at Sen. Clinton for comments she made last fall while campaigning in Iowa, where she said it reflected poorly on Iowa that the state hadn't elected a woman to Congress or as governor. She said she would have expected such behavior of Mississippi, but not Iowa. She later apologized for the comments.
In the Obama ad, former Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus, who is backing Obama but served as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia in the Clinton administration, says, "I'm tired of people putting us down."
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