Fla: No win set up for Obama

[NoBushSpokenHere]

Correct me if I am wrong on the facts (like I think you wouldn't?)

Florida 2008:

1. It is my understanding the Democratic members of Fla. government voted almost unanimously to hold the primary early despite having the knowledge the results would not count.
2. Candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida
3. Both did a little campaigning - one a direct mail piece, the other a press conference, right?
4. Both were told prior to the results would not count
5. After winning the election, Hillary wants them to count despite earlier agreements.
6. Florida Republican Governor riles Florida citizens about their votes not counting hmmmmmmm (why would he care if Hillary's counted or not?)
7. Re-vote would be costly estimated around 25 million
8. Citizens in Florida haven't been told the whole story, all they know is Hillary and the Republican want their votes to count. They begin disliking Obama because they believe he is the one who doesn't want them counted.
9. If a re-vote occurs, Hillary will win by more votes because of number 8.


The only hope for Obama is to publicly offer to split cost of new election with Hillary and state firmly he wants to do this so Floridians have a voice.

From what I hear, the shenanigans in Florida have been working to turn people away from the candidate that would probably work hardest for them... amazing.

[Quixote1818]

1. Good analysis. nt

[Rageneau]

35. Not so. Your first assumption is incorrect, as are several which depend from it.

It was the GOP, not the Democrats, who moved up the Florida Primary. When they saw it would be a problem, Florida Democrats tried to move the date back, but the GOP suckered them by attaching that bill to one opposing paper ballots, which Democrats HAD to vote against.

Hillary never agreed with Florida or Michigan's decision, and always wanted both primaries to count. That's why, being the smartest and best prepared candidate we have, she did the prudent thing and stayed on the ballot in both states, even though she obeyed the rules and did not campaign in either.

Now the party has itself in a pickle. But that sure is NOT Hillary's fault.

She has done exactly what she should have done all along -- use every fair way to fight for the nomination.

Too bad, Obama just isn't as sharp as that.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

37. Do you have links? Also I would appreciate a link to their IQ scores as well

which I am sure you cannot provide the latter.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

41. Okay, I guess

his IQ has been debated here previously: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4765275&mesg_id=4765275

[madfloridian]

2. Not bad at all.

I don't want a revote...but then nobody asked me. :hi:

[jillan]

3. Carville was on Blitzer today saying that he already has people lined up to pay for 1/2 of the costs

David Wilhem was on for Obama, and both Wolf and Carville were trying to get Wilhelm to commit to splitting the cost....but Wilhelm wouldn't.

[SKKY]

5. Why should the candidates foot the bill just because...

...the state party officials screwed the pooch?

[tishaLA]

8. so was Carville actually appearing as a spokesperson

for the Clinton campaign today or just as a "supporter"? And how do supporters manage to represent the campaign to the tune of $10 million?

[Hawkeye-X]

9. Dean OK'ed it - but Hillary refused (re-edited to reflect madfloridan's statement)

Edited.. (thanks mad)

Hawkeye-X

[madfloridian]

14. No, Dean said ok...now Hilllary says no to do-over.

Dean told them he would not pay for it.

[Hawkeye-X]

20. Oh! OK. Keep up the good work. Looks like it's not going to happen anyway.

Because Hillary knows she'll lose FL if there was a do-over.

Comment retracted.

Hawkeye-X

[moobu2]

4. Obama doesn’t want millions of Floridians to vote

That’s the point. KEEP FIGHTING IT BORRACK

[jazzjunkysue]

6. NIce try. But Obama didn't have any say at all in FLA and you know it.

There's plenty of blame to go around, but not to him.

[PITBOS]

18. thats made up - I heard him say Mi and Fl should be heard

[lewis_in_fw]

23. Absolutely Correct. St Obama has said:"Rules are Rules. If DNC wants to redo, otherwise NO". *NT*

[superkia]

39. Either you havent actually paid attention to whats going on or...

you are having issues with comprehension.

1: stick with rules, voters lose but no candidate gets an unfair advantage.

2: Change the rules in the middle and many voters are disenfranchised as one candidate gets an unfair advantage.

3: new primary dates and all the voters count and choose their candidate, fair in every way.


I have no clue how people think number 2 makes any sense? It disenfranchise all of the voters that didn't take off of work or spent valuable time with family because they new their vote wouldn't count anyway. Why would any American lose money or family time to vote when it doesn't count and it doesn't count because of politicians playing games?

If Clinton and her supporters care about equality and Americans choosing the next president, they wouldn't be just worrying about themselves. I think its truly pathetic and unthoughtful to use the voters to sneak and advantage like this is just a game.

[IsItJustMe]

49. Learning disorder appearently.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

7. In addition: 10. If she doesn't gain nomination, the state will go for McCain in Nov...

very well orchestrated... just wonder what other cards are going to be falling out of their sleeves... going to get quite tumultuous, I see.

[Cha]

10. Nah, the officials who screwed the pooch need

to cough up the money if they want the delegates to be seated..they blew it big time and like all arrogant assholes..they will not take responsibility.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

15. But if Obama offers to pay with a BOLD statement that he

is paying because he wants them to have a voice - he may be able to campaign there and gain some people back over to his side, otherwise, Fla will be overwhelmingly red in Nov., or will be Hillaries...in that case it would be hilariously red...no... nothing hilarious about that at all :(

[HughMoran]

11. Interesting, I was also wondering - was Florida an open primary?

I assume any revote would be for Democrats only which could also make a difference. If it was closed originally, this will be irrelevant.

[jab105]

40. It is a closed primary...gotta change 30 days in advance...

I was registered Independent, and didn't feel the urge to change to Democrat since I knew that my vote didn't count (for our first primary)...

We had a runoff on a local issue a couple weeks ago, and I changed party affiliation - just in case we have a revote...

HOnestly, I hope it will be over by the end of April...if Obama can get his focus back, and win PA we wont have to worry about this crap!

[HughMoran]

46. Thanks for the info

So Hillary may have an advantage here due to closed primary and large Hispanic population. I've enjoyed the battle up to this point, but I'm with you - I an now wishing it would wind-down soon. I'm overloaded at this point. Unfortunately, it's unlikely Obama will win PA IMO.

[Yossariant]

12. Link for your #3 please.

:hi:

I am only aware of Obama's press conference and his campaign ads on tv.

Did he send out mailers, too?

[NoBushSpokenHere]

17. Not to my knowledge, I have a relative in Fla that received one from Hillary nt

[Yossariant]

25. Did it look like this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4274899

[NoBushSpokenHere]

33. He didn't say, said it was pro clinton anti obama. I asked if he

kept it, he said, no, he threw it away.

[Yossariant]

38. The English/Spanish "Obama for President" Florida mailer which I linked does sound different

from the one you describe.

[Ravy]

13. Regarding #5

Both were *told* the results would not count (#4), but I don't believe they had an oportunity to agree to it or not agree to it.

To be accurate (and otherwise I believe you are on the money) I don't know if you could imply that Hillary changed her position. Even if she said "The votes don't count" as she did in Michigan, it doesn't mean she agrees with it or that she will not fight to have the decision that caused them not to count be overturned in the future.

[madfloridian]

21. They signed on the rules.

They knew the rules from the start. Here are two conflicting statements from her campaign.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1845

They knew and they agreed. Ickes voted for the rules before he turned against them. :shrug:

[Ravy]

28. I believe the agreement you referenced had to do with campaigning in the state.

I didn't see anywhere in your links where they agreed that the votes would not count.

I have enjoyed your posts on the issue, being a Floridian myself... but even your commentary suggests that Hillary was wanting the votes to count before the vote was taken, not after she had already won.

You may have a better reference to where she said she agreed to not counting the votes, and I may have missed it. If so, could you please link to that article?

Thanks and keep up the good work.

[madfloridian]

45. I am not sure what you are getting out..

I have so much more I have written. I don't frankly think Hillary even questioned the rules until Obama started pulling ahead. Now I have posted where she says the rules of the DNC are not her rules.

For a candidate for president, that is outrageous.

[Ravy]

47. In your blog, you said you voted for Obama, because Clinton was trying

to get the delegates to count. Since you live in Florida, this indicates to me that when Florida voted, Clinton was already trying to get the votes to count. Not after she won, before the voting.

Hillary was still ahead at that point.

You linked to an article where she made the 4 state pledge and agreed not to campaign here (I live in Florida, too), but that agreement said nothing about the votes not counting, nor that the candidates could not work to get the votes to count.

She abided by her agreement not to campaign here (at least as much as Obama, if not more), but I don't believe she ever made an agreement that the votes would not count. I think she was told that by the DNC, not asked to agree to it.

So, I don't see anything preventing her from trying to get the Florida votes to count. As she said, that was a DNC rule, not one she made or agreed to.

[madfloridian]

50. You are saying she does not have to abide by party rules?

That's what I thought. Why not? Why is she different that others who do follow them?

Is it because she is part of the DLC leadership and depending on them to get elected?

Is Hillary's campaign being run as a "shadow DNC" for her benefit?

Many think it is, and you seem to think so.

She came to Florida just before the primary. She wrote Alex Sink CFO, and said she would be here. Then she had a rally the day of the primary to declare victory, and Bill Nelson said the attack had just begun.

I thnk Bill Nelson just declared the battle is beginning.



Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton (second from left) thanks supporters with Congressman Bill Nelson of Florida, Congressman Alcee Hastings of Florida, Miami Mayor Manny Diaz and U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-F.L.) (left-right) after polls closed at the Signature Grand in Davie, Florida on Tuesday, January 29, 2008.

The state party would have 30 days to change its plan before the sanctions would go into effect, but instead Florida's Democratic lawmakers say they will fight back. Sen. Bill Nelson told reporters in a conference call Friday that he'll lead the delegates to Denver whether or not the DNC plans to let them in.

"We are quite concerned that Florida Democrats are going to lose their right to vote," Nelson said. "And of all states, we have the sensitivity of this because of what we have gone through.

"In this primary, some even tried to silence our state," Nelson said as he endorsed Clinton from the stage Tuesday night. "Hillary Clinton will never let that happen."

[Ravy]

53. You avoided my question, but I will respond to yours.

Of course she has to abide by them. But she doesn't have to agree with them, and she doesn't have to stop fighting to overturn them. She doesn't have to stop saying that she considers them unfair. She doesn't have to stop telling voters she is fighting to get Florida and Michigan seated. She does not have to stop claiming that the Rules Committe acted in violation of their own rules.

[lmbradford]

27. they both signed pledges...

n/t

[Ravy]

29. Link to where they signed something that would indicate that the

votes would not count, please.

It may be out there, but I have yet to find it.

Thank you.

[Yossariant]

31. They're lying again. Clinton was reluctant to even sign the no-campaign pledge:

Idiot Dean decided to give Florida to the GOP and Clinton disagreed with that strategy:

"That's one reason why Clinton's campaign probably hesitated before signing the pledge.

The other is that Clinton's strategists disagree with the DNC about Florida's viability in the general election. Clinton's team believes she can win there; the DNC is more skeptical that Democrats can recover. Clinton doesn't want to give Republicans a heads-up there."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/the_jockeying_behind_the_four.php

[Ravy]

44. Self-delete

[lmbradford]

43. check CNN or MSNBC

That is where I saw it or read it.

[Ravy]

48. Yes, I checked. They said I was right. nt

[madfloridian]

51. You need to do a search to satisfy yourself.

I have tried, and nothing satisfies you. Look it up.

[Ravy]

54. I don't fall for bait and switch easily.

Providing a link that says she promises not to campaign is far different from posting a link saying she is agreeing that the votes will not count and that she will not try to overturn that decision by the rules committee.

Thanks for your efforts. I don't mean to be snarky, I use the references in your blog a lot and enjoy reading them. But in this particular nuance of the whole Florida issue, I think Hillary is perfectly justified.

[Oilwellian]

55. Well, you're leaving out a few words

And you're the second person I've seen tonight pushing this bullshit. Where oh where did these brilliant talking points come from? :rofl:

Let's re-read the pledge, shall we?

THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, in honor and in accordance with DNC rules, pledge to actively campaign in the pre-approved early states Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. I pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any election contest occurring in any state not already authorized by the DNC to take place in the DNC approved pre-window (any date prior to February 5, 2008). Campaigning shall include but is not limited to purchasing media or campaign advocacy of any kind, attending or hosting events of more than 200 people to promote one’s candidacy for a preference primary and employing staff in the state in question. It does not include activities specifically related to raising campaign resources such as fundraising events or the hiring of fundraising staff.

Now what do you think "participate in" means? :rofl:

Case closed.

[Ravy]

56. Disagreeing with a rule and fighting to overturn it is not participating

in an election contest. You guys stretch a lot.

Where was your anger when Obama ran TV commercials here. Oh, yeah, he had an excuse. S-t-r-e-t-c-h

Well then, where was your anger when he said he had permission from the DNC to do it, and the DNC said no permission was ask for or given. Oh, yeah, he mispoke. S--t--r--e--t--c--h.

If her arguing to overturn the rule is participating in the election, is Obama's arguing with her not equal participation???
S--------t----------r----------e----------t--------c-----------h

Careful, you are approaching the breaking point.

[musicblind]

59. Haha

love the visuals

[PITBOS]

16. Update on 7 - they are now considering a mail in vote -cheaper

[NoBushSpokenHere]

19. Estimated cost? nt

[Kittycat]

24. I read $8M earlier today. Caucus would be $4M

[Hawkeye-X]

22. Actually it isn't. It's twice as expensive

but the state's footing the bill and I'm sure Floridans will be donating money towards this.

Hawkeye-X

[Laelth]

26. Good work and good idea.

Expensive, but probably the best solution.

I bet Hillary would "veto" this proposal too.

:(

-Laelth

[Windex]

32. Hillary would "veto" this proposal too

Hillary would "veto" this proposal too



She wouldn't if she can make sure HER people are in charge of the count...:=(

[Laelth]

34. Welcome to DU!

:patriot:

:dem:

-Laelth

[NoBushSpokenHere]

30. Maybe I should go to Florida and explain this stuff to the voters?

With 6 inches of snow here in Ohio and another 6 on the way overnight, Florida is looking like the place to be :)

[stillcool]

36. Let the Supreme Court decide!

after all, it is Florida!

[Patsy Stone]

42. No

The people of Florida know who screwed us, I hear it every day on talk radio. No one blames the candidates, and Dems down here are properly wary of both Crist and Nelson's motives.

There was no direct mail that I received, but Obama had a national ad that ran here for a few days before the election. Hillary held some private fundraisers.

Also, you need to take into account the votes for all of the other Dem candidates no longer on the ballot and where they will go, not to mention a good amount of Hillary's votes were from early voting, before Obama even won in Iowa. Lastly, IIRC, he actually closed most of the gap with voters who decided the few days before the election.

FWIW, I've not yet met anyone in real life who is terribly upset their vote didn't count. Not to say they aren't out there, but I don't see riots in the street.

[bling bling]

52. If he does that I won't donate any more to him.

The Floridians should hold their shady "leaders" responsible for disenfranchising them. Maybe they'll vote all the scandal puke fucks out of office for this crap.

Florida taxpayers should pay for the revote. Obama and Hillary's campaign donors shouldn't have to pay for Florida's HUUUUUUGGGGEEEEE unfathomably stupid error in judgement. I want my money back from Obama if that's what it's spent on. I pay taxes for my state's vote I'll be damned if I'm going to *donate* my personal money for Florida to get a revote after they tried to bully their way around the DNC rules. God you'd think the Florida politicians were in kindergarten the way they act. But Florida voters elected them so that's that.

Besides all that, I don't trust Florida in the first place. There's something seriously shady going on in that state. Probably be the biggest waste of money ever if we funded their revote. Might as well just give the win to Clinton and throw in a few delegates for Obama and save the 8 million. We all know she'll win in a revote anyway.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

60. While I don't trust Florida shady politics either

I believe if a re-vote was asked for by Obama and financed mainly by the Obama campaign, with enough time for him to campaign there, then Floridians may realize he is a great choice to make.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

57. K&R. HRC could net ***42*** tainted delegates from iniertia in Florida, according,

to thegreenpepers.com (38 pledged and 4 superdelegates), along with another 79 from inertia in Michigan (73 pledged and 6 super). See the links at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4964001 .

121 under-the-radar delegates are hers for the taking at a Clinton-dominated Credentials Committee meeting in Denver in August, if somehow do-overs get talked about but not actually carried out. And I've seen absolutely no media coverage of the size of HRC's potential bonanza!

[speedbird]

58. optional second primary, for high value states ...

everybody wins

[ihelpu2see]

61. but in the next 4 weeks it will not matter he will be over 200 delegates ahead

and a FL decision will not matter. PA will be a tie most likely in popular vote and the delegates will favor Sen. Obama imo

[krkaufman]

62. Well, I'd also add this li'l bit of underhanded campaigning ...

... in the days before the Florida election, as well: The no-campaigning campaign ploy.