Recent Super Delegate History is very troubling for Clinton Camp

[Perky]

There is no way you can look at this objectively and not be worried for the longevity of the Clinton Campaign. Obama has had new SD endorsements since Ohio and Texas and Clinton has not budged in three weeks.

Date Clinton Obama Uncommited Difference
2/15/2008 242 162 392 81
2/20/2008 246 165 384 81
2/21/2008 246 170 380 77
2/22/2008 246 176 374 71
2/23/2008 245 177 374 69
2/24/2008 245 177 374 69
2/25/2008 245 181 370 65
2/26/2008 245 181 370 65
2/27/2008 245 186 365 60
2/28/2008 244 188 364 57
2/29/2008 243 193 360 51
3/1/2008 243 193 360 51
3/2/2008 243 194 359 50
3/3/2008 243 195 358 49
3/4/2008 243 197 356 47
3/5/2008 243 200 353 44
3/6/2008 243 201 351 42


From politico.com

[AtomicKitten]

1. The irony is that she did this to herself.

[KittyWampus]

2. There is no way Hillary will net any majority of super delegates should this go to Convention

no way.

[KittyWampus]

3. And you forgot to mention- she's LOST super delegates who've either defected to Obama or

gone back to uncommitted.

[2_CentsWorth]

4. Math on the Democratic Side tells an interesting story...

The arithmetic must include an essential part of the equation:
Neither Obama nor Clinton can secure through the primaries and caucuses the 2,025 delegates necessary to win at the Denver convention without the votes of the superdelegates.


Add up all the states he has won in his drive to become the nominee, including all of those small and deeply "red" Republican states and --
so far Obama has won in places representing 193 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
so far Clinton's has won in places representing 263 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.


So how have the candidates fared in states that are crucial building blocks of a Democratic general election strategy?
Obama = 51 electoral votes:
from his home state of Illinois, plus Wisconsin, Washington and Minnesota.
Clinton = 118 electoral votes:
from her home state of New York, as well as California, New Jersey and Michigan.


The problem Obama faced in Ohio was --
Obama won only five of the state's 88 counties, an inauspicious foundation for a general election campaign.
Clinton won among Catholic voters, 63 percent-36 percent, according to exit polls. And Clinton beat him among voters in every income category and bested him by 14 points among those making less than $50,000 annually.


Obama, the leading candidate, still hasn't shown he has appeal in a large battleground state that will be pivotal in the fall. In this sense, Pennsylvania is where Obama's back is up against the wall.

goto--->
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/tough_math_on_the_democratic_s.html

[KittyWampus]

10. ludicrous because there is little comparison to Clinton winning Democratic strongholds

big fucking deal.

[Gore1FL]

21. Is your argument

That Obama will not win NY, MA, NJ, CA over McCain?

That's sort of silly. Well it's beyond sort of silly.

[HooptieWagon]

5. SDs don't like party destroying scorched earth tactics?

Who'd a thunk it? :sarcasm:

[David Zephyr]

6. Perky, numbers no longer matter to the Clintons. They're hell bent to drag their loss out til summer

Worse than Nader.

[Perky]

24. I think the pressue to get out after PA will be huge

Even if wins tha state she will only get 15 or so delegate and will still be down by 100 in pledged delagtes and likely surpassed in Super Delegates.


The 12 event losing streak killed her

[stellanoir]

7. Nastiness deserves no reward really.

[KittyWampus]

8. spelling it out- Obama has netted 39 Delegates without losing any. Clinton lost

super delegates and ultimately only gained 1.

[Eurobabe]

9. Does the Titanic mean anything to anyone?

[BenDavid]

11. Wouldn't you hate to be John Lewis Wednesday?

He threw Hillary under the bus to join "certain victory" with the "inevitable, unstoppable Obama juggernaut."

[Perky]

13. His District went 80% for Obama

Hard to go against your consuituency when it is that lopsided,

[scheming daemons]

26. Why? He's still on the side of angels.... he's still with the Democratic nominee...

....

[antigop]

12. Serious question here....how "firm" are those superdelegates?

Any chance they could/would switch? Not that I would want them to at this point, but is there a possibility, and if so, how possible?

TIA.

<edit to add> And what type of arm-twisting (if any) could be done to get them to switch?

[Perky]

17. Politically I suspect it is very hard to once you do a press release and all

So unless you candidate does something really disgusting you stick with them as long as they are viable.

[antigop]

19. Thanks, Perky. n/t

[ramapo]

14. I'm writing local Superdelegates

I'm urging Clinton superd's to switch to Obama because Clinton's tactics have crossed the line and she is now damaging the party's chances to regain the White House. Obama will have a difficult-enough time overcoming the Republican smear machine without Hillary giving them a head start.

[americanstranger]

15. They denied the '50 SD bloc' for a reason.

I think the Obama campaign was planning on dropping all 50 superdelegates at once, but they pulled back in favor of a different strategy.

I think they actually do have those 50 DSs - but they're going to release them in onesies and twosies between now and the PA primary.

Watch for a talking point from the Obama campaign in the run-up to PA where they talk about the 'slow, steady trickle of superdelegates away from Clinton,' or some such.

If they would have dropped all 50 as a bloc, it would have been a story for a day. If thy roll them out one or two a day between now and PA, they'll have a potent talking point/cudgel to hammer Clinton with.

- as

[Perky]

18. Yep controlling the news cycle is what is most important for the next few week

[anigbrowl]

28. $55 million in donations is a record - he has it for today.

That and Dean's proposals on FL and MI are the top stories.

[antigop]

20. hmmm...interesting.....n/t

[anigbrowl]

27. I think it'll be a combination of the 2 strategies

Remember there's a caucus in Wyoming Saturday - and Obama is favored to win as his caucus ground game is so much better. 12 delegates at stake.

Then a primary in Mississippi on Tuesday, which he's favored to win because of demographics. 33 delegates at stake.

Accelerating momentum...

[gasperc]

16. Clinton is playing hardball, she wants to be president

she doesn't care if it'll crack up the party, she'll scare the hell out of us in November to fall in line against McCain, lest we end up with a generational conservative supreme court.

The superdelegates are going to decide this. Clinton is sowing the seeds of doubt, giving the supers heartburn about "taking a chance" on the young, black upstart. Hillary will push the voter's very, very hard on this in PA. People powered by damn, popular sentiment be damned

[writes3000]

22. MSNBC just reported that Obama has between 210 & 214 SDs

I saw it on a graphic. He's doing better than 201 now.

[Perky]

23. Most of MSM say the number is higher

But I like the way Politico is tracking them on their website.

I suspect the MSNBC graphic has Hillaru higher than 240 as well..


http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/

[writes3000]

25. You're right

They have her at 254.