Obama will win Pennsylvania

[not_too_L8]

He won twelve state contest in a row, he came back from 15 points behind in Ohio, and 20 points behind in Texas.

We are now finding out that it was the Clinton camp that started the Canada/NAFTA stuff....

Super delegates are leaving Hillary and moving to Obama.

He is ahead in plegded delegates and the popular vote.

Obama will win

[tabatha]

1. Here's hoping. Cannot stand too much more of this dirty politics.

[Tellurian]

42. Oh, you are not finding out anything about the NAFTA Flap..The TRUTH Stands..it was Obama

camp that told the Canadians "don't worry about it, nothing will change".

[hueyshort]

137. and if he doesn't, will you kindly stop trashing HRC?

[billbuckhead]

2. Pennsylvania is like Ohio but more so

Hillary's opponent willl flounder in Pennsylvania no matter how much money he spends.

[harun]

7. Pennsylvania is not like Ohio, they don't have PHILADELPHIA

and Philadelphia is going to help bring it home for Obama.

[surfermaw]

31. 10 % Black, mostly working class blue collar workers whites

[not_too_L8]

36. What about Maine? mostly white n/t

[BumRushDaShow]

41. Philadelphia

is not "10% black" but several times that and it was the votes from this city and the other cities in this state that allowed for a Rendell to win a statewide race in a red-purple state, and that gave Kerry the state in 2004. Do not underestimate the power of the cities and the turnout.

What I don't like is the increasing crescendo of divisiveness during this primary contest that insists on making it a racial one. How does this bode with Obama's record in states like Alaska, Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, Utah, and North Dakota? :shrug: One can't claim that there are no "blue collar whites" in these states.

[aquart]

99. So. Blacks will only vote for Obama?

Guess he played that race card perfectly.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

126. OMFG you people can't even disguise it, can you?

Black voters went from supporting Clinton over Obama by like 60-30 to supporting him over her 85-15 almost overnight because Barack duped them by "playing the race card". :eyes:

[XemaSab]

129. Those Negroes don't have the good sense to do what's best for 'em.

It's the White Man's Burden, I tell ya. :eyes:

[hueyshort]

139. Make sure you smear Clinton as a racist

I guess KO will do it for you this time.

[BumRushDaShow]

128. According to Fast Eddie Rendell

Whites will only vote for Clinton. This despite 80% of the Blacks who put Fast Eddie in office rather than vote for the repuke's "famous" Black former football player Lynn Swann.

See how nonsensical your post sounds? :eyes:

[Barack_America]

51. Oh honey, you haven't been to Philly, have you?

We're closer to 50% African American, with many of the whites being those "latte liberals" Hillary is so distainful of.

[kwenu]

55. Go Philly Go! Go OBAMA!!!!!!

[democrattotheend]

65. Here, here!

I'm originally from right outside Philadelphia and I am busy this weekend, but starting next weekend I am going home every single weekend I can to help get African Americans and students registered in Philly and help Obama win PA.

[Barack_America]

78. PM me.

That is exactly what my neighborhood and student groups are doing.

[harun]

72. Dunkin donut dem for Obama here and Philly is about 80% dems these days (n/t)

[noel711]

64. What? 10% of What...??

Philly is at least 40% African American.

There is a sizeable Hispanic population,

a growing Asian community,

at least 7 colleges/universities,

and the old blue-blue Main Line contingency...

and the regular blue collar folks...

[skooooo]

135. Come on Philly!!!

Gobama

[jakem]

10. more what exactly?

- racist?
- gullible?


what are you trying to say exactly?

[billbuckhead]

19. More elderly white people and less blacks

Doesn't Ohio have Cleveland? Wasn't Cleveland supposed to put Hillary's opponent over the top?

[TheDonkey]

83. The keystone state is going to love Obama when they get to meet him

PA ≠ OH.

[aquart]

103. Or else.

[babylonsister]

3. Don't be too sure, but love your optimism. nt

[Alhena]

4. I like Obama, but no he won't. If this election shows anything it's that momentum

is far less a factor than just looking at the demographics and the nature of the primary/caucus in a particular state and seeing where it fits Obama's or Hillary's strengths.

Pennsylvania's closed primary is tailor made for Hillary, and Obama should campaign hard there but make it clear that he is a very big underdog. Which he is. We don't need to get expectations up for Pennsylvania- just acknowledge it's a Hillary state, tip our cap, and move on after she wins.

[Laelth]

43. Very wise, Alhena.

Consider my hat tipped.

:toast:

-Laelth

[4_Legs_Good]

49. I agree, particularly on the underdog bit, but Obama on the ground

counts for a lot. When people get a chance to meet him in person and attend a rally, the energy is really electrifying. It might not be enough to turn Pennsylvania, but don't rule it out. 6 weeks of Obama there in person goes a long way to getting people excited about something new.

David

[thoughtcrime1984]

52. She won't have the dittoheads lifting her up this time

A closed primary may not be such a bad thing, now that the Repubs have a presumptive nominee.

[aquart]

104. NOW he's an underdog? I thought he had the most delegates?

I thought he was such a shoo-in that Hillary should just drop out now, it's so hopeless. NOW he's an UNDERDOG?

Reality has no permanence of any kind in Obamaland.

You will say anything, do anything. It's all good if it's for the master Obama.

[not_too_L8]

106. spin n/t

[tishaLA]

113. He can do very well in Philadelphia, less well in Pittsburgh

and stay very very close, even if he doesn't win. I think this might be Rendell's Waterloo: he's going to expend a good deal of political capital and, I suspect, he will get little back, especially in Philly.

[Barack_America]

5. It's not out of the realm of possibility. Obama's grassroots efforts are already strong here.

And getting stronger everday. All he needs to do is to get Philly and Pittsburgh out to vote and win-over the surrounding suburbs (which he should be able to do).

I'm in Pennsylvania's largest congressional district and he will positively destroy her here.

[FogerRox]

81. Buses for canvassers in NJ driving to eastern PA.

>wink<

[Abacus]

6. "We are now finding out that it was the Clinton camp that started the Canada/NAFTA stuff"

"We" are a handful of readers on a message board; I haven't seen the story get any traction anywhere else. I have trouble believing the media is going to come out and say "Sorry everyone, we screwed up and got the wrong person -- we hope our constant barrage of misplaced attacks didn't influence the primaries."

[nomorewhopper]

8. i hope he does

but i'm not holding my breath

[kentuck]

9. I'm not sure about that...

I'm thinking PA will end up much like OH. Unless the momentum changes again? Also, it is a closed primary, as far as I know? That means no "independent" votes for Obama. If he can stay within 5 points in PA, he will be lucky.

[scheming daemons]

13. AS someone who is from PA..... you couldn't be more wrong...

PA... west of Harrisburg... is like Ohio.

PA... east of Harrisburg... is like Maryland/DC.


It's a turnout battle. If Obama gets heavey turnout in Philly, that is MORE than enough to offset Hillary's gains in the heavily redneck center and north of the state. Then it is a matter of Obama getting about 50/50 in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh).


Look at the county map of the 2004 GE. Look where Kerry won, and look where Bush won.

Obama will win where Kerry won.

[kentuck]

20. I hope you are right.

That does give a little encouragement. But what about the closed primary?

[scheming daemons]

32. Here's why a closed primary doesn't hurt.

Kerry won Philadelphia by 400,000+ voters in 2004. Philadelphia is HEAVILY African-American.


Obama will win Philly over Clinton by at least 300,000 to 400,000 voters.


Pittsburgh will be about an even split... MAYBE slightly Hillary... but she'll net less than 25,000 gain there if she wins.


The question is.... in the REST of the state.... the "T" shaped region between Philly and Pittsburgh.... can Hillary make up 300,000+ votes?

The "T" is about 65-35 registered Republican. See THIS map of how the state voted in 2004:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/P/00/index.html


Since Republicans cannot cross over and vote for her in the "T"... it will be hard for her to make up that deficit.


The only way that Hillary can win PA is if

A) She takes a surprisingly larger pct in Philly than the demographics there would suggest....

or

B) The turnout in Philly is lower than expected.


Now... I'll grant you this. Governor Rendell is the ex-Mayor of Philly. Don't be surprised if "fast Eddie" finds a way to suppress voting in Philly. He knows where all the skeletons are buried and he was the main reason for the LARGE turnout in 2004 for Kerry there.

He knows the game... and he'll do everything in his power to prevent Philly voters (read: blacks) from turning this state to Obama.

The level to which he succeeds in that venture will determine who wins the state.


If I had to call it now, I would say that Rendell will be mildly successful at depressing the vote levels in Philly, and that Hillary will get a 51-47 victory in the state. This will translate into about a 4 or 5 delegate pickup for her.... which mathematically won't help... but which she will try to spin into something more important.


But the bottom line is this. Both Hillary AND Obama would win PA in the GE. Rendell will get the Philly turnout magically "up" for the GE, no matter who the nominee is.


Fast Eddie is not a whole lot different than the Daley family in Chicago. Remember that.

[Hawkowl]

40. Informative analysis

Good post. Thanks.

[BumRushDaShow]

48. Fast Eddie

made a boo boo with his Clintonesque race card swipe at the black population by publicly insisting that whites in this state wouldn't vote for a black candidate, ignoring the historic and precedent-setting voting patterns from states that have already voted and have higher white populations. So expect Philly to respond in kind to make sure that his supposed "speaking(ing) the truth" is overwhelmingly counteracted via turn out. The hate and fear card can work both ways.

[loveangelc]

132. If that's so then why is Hillary up 10 points?

[AlinPA]

45. Good that you point out the PA "T", the north border and a swath down the center

which is conservative and often compared to Alabama in media. I'm not sure that people in the PA "T" would be that excited about Clinton. Maybe she will get some "rw talk show host votes" since that "T" area is loaded with RW radio talk show programs. I agree with your view on Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

[scheming daemons]

47. There simply aren't many Democrats in the "T".... and it is a closed primary....

...she'll have to win BIG BIG BIG in Southwestern PA in order to offset the big lead Obama will have in Philly.


The problem with that is.... Unions aren't a big deal in Pittsburgh anymore. There isn't a single operating steel mill in the Pittsburgh region anymore. Trust me. I've lived in the Pittsburgh area my whole life.


Pittsburgh rapidly becoming a "college town" and a health care center.

Pittsburgh is Miami-Dade county.... if Miami-Dade had 4 world-class Universities (Pitt, Duquesne, Robert Morris, CMU).


The #1 employer in the Pittsburgh area.... the institution with the most employees... is the University of Pittsburgh (largely because of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center ... UPMC).


Hillary will have to hope all those doctors and nurses are so much in favor of UHC, that they come out for her in droves.... That, and that the retired remnants of the old steel industry are still interested in things like NAFTA.


I'm telling you... old people in PA are generally in favor of Clinton... but not to the levels that they are in Ohio. And Ohio doesn't have a city like Philly, with MASSIVE AA vote.

Philly is D.C.

[AlinPA]

62. Very good points, esp. your pointing there are not many Democrats in the "T".

I keep forgetting that it is a closed primary. Pittsburgh has definitely changed as you said.

[TheDonkey]

85. I believe that Democratic primary voters in central PA will be more liberal too

Sort of like red state phenomenon because central PA is a red state. They may go to Obama.

Clinton's only stronghold is Pittsburgh, which is like Ohio, but Philly is most definitely going to love Obama.

[RamboLiberal]

88. I'm from Pittsburgh Area and that is a very good analysis

The one thing Hillary might have going for her is elderly voters here. But Pittsburgh is no longer the big union blue collar city it once was. Big employers are the universities and health care. Don't forget besides University of Pittsburgh and it's big associated health care institution UPMC we also have CMU plus a number of smaller colleges & universities. Bayer is a big employer here. And a lot of the suburbs are solid middle to upper-middle class - the "latte drinkers".

Also our lone liberal talk show host here, Lynn Cullen, is an Obama supporter. She's been disgusted lately with Hillary's tactics. She did feel empathy that Hillary had some bad treatment from the press as a woman, but the latest tactics have turned her off somewhat to Hillary.

With the Sunday exception of Chris Moore(African-American) the rest of Pittsburgh radio is disgustingly RW!

I think Barack can close the gap as he comes in to this state. I doubt it will be a runaway for Hillary and I think Barack has a chance to get a win or at least keep it very close.

I think this state will be pumped to for once have a chance to have a vote in who is the Democratic candidate.

[Cha]

46. I'm thinking Will Smith and all the big

guns should come out in Philly and campaign for Obama like jack nicholson did for hilary before Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

[kwenu]

57. YES!!! Hopefully the "ALL EARS" guys (Obama/Will Smith) will be making appearances in Philly.

[Cha]

58. They listen well..and they love Will Smith

in Philly..why wouldn't they love a hometown boy made good? Who else?

[WinkyDink]

124. Clinton will win where Kerry won.

[Justitia]

11. The Clintons are political poison. Lookout PA, it's headed your way. -eom

[HughMoran]

84. So are you

good bye:hi:

[Justitia]

117. Well, your name about says it all, doesn't it? -eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Let's Make It Interesting

I will wager a verifiable $250.00 donation to DU that Hillary will win the Keystone State...

[JackORoses]

16. you want to double that and make it on who gets the nomination?

My money's on Obama.

How about yours?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. He's The One That Said Obama Will Win PN

But I'll take the intrade odds -2.5 -1 and put it on Hill to win the nomination


Your $625.00 to my $250.00...

We can find a third party DUer to hold the post dated checks...


on edit-too bad it wasn't Monday when she was a 6-1 dog... I would have put up $500.00 then...

[JackORoses]

35. What? You aren't confident in Hillary?

Come on, even money, $500 a piece. Obama vs Hillary
Ready to Rock n Roll??

I guess we could even do $250 apiece if that is more reasonable for you.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Your $625.00 To My $250.00

Here's the odds...

http://www.intrade.com/


I'm not a sucker...


Taking Hillary straight up is like taking the Timberwolves straight up against the San Antonio Spurs.....


I have my checkbook out... Since the winnings are going to DU there's not much room for chicanery on the part of the person who holds the check...RinsD sounds like a reliable fella...

I am very much for real... I'll even pm RinsD right now and copy you...

on edit- Let's make it $300... When the logistics are ironed out you send him a check for $750.00 and I send him a check for $300.00...

[JackORoses]

67. so you admit Hillary is equivalent to a 3rd rate team? that's funny.

You certainly don't think much of her chances.

If we had made the bet before January, would you have given me the odds when she was the favorite? I wonder.

This just shows how little faith you have in her.
Neither of us is going to profit from this. Why not just make an even bet?

And as far as Rinsd goes, I trust him about as far as I could throw him. I would rather send the checks to Skinner to hold.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

76. Would I Have Given You Two And One Half To One Odds In January

Honestly no...

I advocate with my heart and spend/invest/gamble with my head...


I prefer gambling on events with point spreads or different outcome spreads- i.e. knockout, decision, tko... If I think an event isn't going to happen it isn't going to happen ...

The poster who started the thread that Obama will win PA needs , imho, to do some research...Pennsylvania is more Ohio than Ohio...


The only path I see to the Convention for HRC is to win PA, KY, WV, PR, and revotes in FL and MI...
She would be close to Obama in delegates and possibly have overtaken him in pop vote...

But the way this primary season is being framed it's easy for me to see an outcome that leaves one half the party feeling they were screwed....

[JackORoses]

79. awwww, so no bet then? i wouldn't bet on Hillary either.

"an outcome that leaves one half the party feeling they were screwed...."

This is your Team Captain's fault.
She could have made a graceful withdrawal anytime since Wisconsin, when the math made it apparent that she would have to score enormous victories from then on just to break even in delegates.

She could have went out on her own terms. We would already be uniting around Obama by now.

Instead she took her supporters into the trenches. She attacked without regard to Democratic hopes in the Fall. This helped her achieve pyrrhic victories on Tuesday, but they gained her no ground.

Now her supporters have their hearts invested in this fight. Whereas, if she had acted differently, and not portrayed Obama as unqualified and dangerous, many of her supporters would have had no problem supporting Obama.

She has decided to take all of you with her into defeat. It is a damn shame considering what was possible.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

91. The Odds Are 2.67 -1

http://www.intrade.com/

I'll send my post-dated $400.00 check to Skinner right now if you send him a check for $1,068.00 as per the previous terms...

[Danger Mouse]

96. Why are betting odds required? It doesn't show much confidence in Hillary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

105. Did You Ever Think There Is A Thing Called Equity...

The person who bets on the underdog gets the odds...

http://www.intrade.com/


I'll play your game though... I'll put $1,000.00 on Hillary to win outright if you put $1,000.00 on the Pacers to beat the Spurs tonight straight up...

That's what you're asking me to do...Bet on the long shot without the incentive to do so...

I'll verify I can cover either bet...

SCOREBOARD

[Danger Mouse]

109. I'm in no financial position to be putting money on anything.

I'm a Dunkin Donut dem, after all. :hi:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

111. I Don't Want To Be Gambling Either

This is all started with a small wager on the outcome of Pennsylvania...

I think Obama is a prohibitive favorite...

It's the fourth quarter of a football game, there's five minutes left and he's up ten...

[WinkyDink]

125. PA. Thanks.

[surfermaw]

14. Obama voters are their own worst enemies

[dchill]

37. Here we go -

projection again.

[Zynx]

15. He came from 15 points back in Ohio to lose by 10.

Wow. Amazing.

[not_too_L8]

50. 20 points in Texas and may have

More delegates than Hillary when it's all counted

[hell-bent]

90. Yes, but exit polling

showed that the late deciding voters went to Hillary. No big MO for Obama in both Ohio and Texas. So sorry!

[JackORoses]

114. he was actually closer to 25 down

It is amazing that he made any headway with the shit Hillary was throwing.

[Zynx]

118. That's the most pathetic excuse ever.

[JackORoses]

119. What's Hillary's excuse for losing Texas? oh right, I forgot Caucuses are the Devil.

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. If Obama wins PA he will be our next President

And I will be fine with that.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

18. NOT...PA is a CLOSED Primary and Obama Rethuglican 1 time voters can Not muddy the water there......

Obama doesn't stand a snowballs chance in hell

[Abacus]

23. You mean like this?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/04/limbaugh-urges-listeners-to-vote-for-clinton/

[ElsewheresDaughter]

29. FACT: 52% of "REGISTERED" TX Republicans voted for Obama...67% of "REGISTERED" Dems Hillary

[theHandpuppet]

70. Oh but why let the facts get in the way of the Obamythology?

You have more preserverance than me -- I gave up trying to present facts when it comes to discussions with some Obama supporters.

[aquart]

102. You can't argue facts to faith.

This is a religion, not an election.

[spotbird]

68. Obama Republicans?

There is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom, there is no bottom.

[JackORoses]

115. Neither can Hillary's Limbaugh Army. They handed her the Texas Primary.

Thank God that Obama housed her in the Caucus and won the State.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

21. Maybe, but it won't be easy.

[JimGinPA]

22. I Believe It Will Be Close...

She will not gain many delegates if she wins, if he gets the vote out it could be a death blow to her.

[alexis510]

127. Obama in PA

You should DIary this at Kos so that people won't feel so down about PA and actually get off their butts to beat her. I've been hearing that PA is not as ideal for Clinton as one might expect. Thanks for the analysis.

[not_too_L8]

130. Thanks... n/t

[lapfog_1]

24. Two things working against that

PA is a closed primary... so all those students (that haven't registered yet) and those independents (who didn't register Democrat) won't be able to vote for Obama...

PA is more like Ohio than almost any other state, certainly any state left to vote.


Not to worry, Clinton won't win PA any bigger than she won Ohio.

Indiana is going to go to Obama... as well as the vast majority of "insignificant" states that are left.

Obama will actually gain more pledged delegates from now to Puerto Rico than Clinton will.

There are whispers that Obama will win Puerto Rico big, very, very big. It has 55 delegates.

Obama will go to the convention with 160 to 180 more pledged delegates than Clinton. And likely a very close split in announced Super Delegats... overall a 130 to 135 delegate lead.

The rest of the Supers will NOT overturn that margin, not if they want to keep the party together.

That delegate lead will mean that Obama controls the delegate certification committee, and they will NOT seat Florida and Michigan.

When this all becomes crystal clear to the "names" in the party (right after Puerto Rico), they will collectively ask Hillary to step aside and support Obama (as was planned for this week, but the Ohio win stopped that plan).

[RamboLiberal]

92. They have to the 25th of this month to register

Bet the Obama people will be out there getting it done!

[DemGa]

25. Sorry, no. Besides Obama's "hope and change" charade has run its course....nt

[Dulcinea]

26. Obama will do well, but Hillary will win PA.

No doubt in my mind. I spent the first 24 years of my life there, & I predict PA will turn out much like OH did.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

108. he shoudl get enough delegates as it will be close

[blocker]

28. WOW 55 millions in feb for obama

[grantcart]

30. Clinton is going to win big. Its going to be a landslide she is 20 points ahead

the problem with Tuesday is not that Obama didn't do well its that we jacked the expectations up too high. Lower the expectations if he gets within 10 points - he wins -- if he wins by one point its a landslide.

[not_too_L8]

39. She was 20 points ahead in Texas

and when they finish counting the delegates she will have accomplished a tie at best

[grantcart]

53. but he lost the spin battle

[not_too_L8]

59. She showed her Rovian side

[Danger Mouse]

94. It would be if the primary were in the next few days.

But it's weeks away...time enough for Obama to secure more SD endorsements (he's pulled in 11 in the past week alone), to campaign hard in PA, and to hit back against Hillary's negative campaigning with some tougher ads of his own.
He needs to stand his ground and be strong.

[skipos]

33. No he won't, and he doesn't have to. Let Hillary focus on her sliver of states

and win some of them by 1-10%. Obama will focus on all the states, and win most of them by much larger percentages.

[Gore1FL]

34. I doubt he'll win the state

But she has to win 65%+ to make a big enough dent in his pledged delegate lead to matter.

[AtomicKitten]

44. All he has to do is be competitive and the rest is gravy.

[not_too_L8]

Agreed!!

If he comes within 10 points of Hillary it's a win for Obama


GOBama !!!

[hedgehog]

54. I was thinking that Obama has 6 weeks and Pennsylvania isn't

that big of a state, so that Obama would run out of places to campaign. Since we all know he has magic eyes that hypnotize those who see him in person, Pennsylvania is his.

[jillan]

56. Can I have some of whatever you are taking?

[Seabiscuit]

60. Until the Obamoids arrived on DU this winter, it was a rare thing indeed to

see people just pulling crap out of their arses like this. Now it's just par for the course in this forum.

[not_too_L8]

61. yeh, must be crap if you don't agree

Like Hillary being ahead in Texas by 20 Points and nicely loosing the entire lead to break even!

[not_too_L8]

63. This thread is going pretty well..we don't need to call each other names...n/t

[zonkers]

66. Civility and respect make for enlightened dialogues. nt

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

73. Yup, I have had more productive discussions with creationists

[Danger Mouse]

89. The OP contained no snark or insults and this is what you post in response?

Ah, but I forget that you're the thin-skinned idiot who put more than 400 people on ignore.
I bet you can't even see this post, which is just fine with me.

[tandem5]

69. No, Pennsylvania will go Clinton.

I've been uncertain on various issues this whole primary, but when it comes to Pennsylvania there is no doubt.

[spinbaby]

74. I live in southwestern PA

I know a lot of Obama supporters and have yet to find a Clinton supporter.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

93. I Live In Florida-The Fourth Most Populous State In The Union

I know a lot of Clinton supporters and have yet to find a Obama supporter.

[Barack_America]

107. And that is relevant to the discussion of Pennsylvania how?

:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

110. I was Merely Responding To The Poster Who Bemoaned Or Applauded The Imagined Paucity Of Clinton

Supporters In Her Area.


:shrug:

[TheDonkey]

86. There was a guy in my western PA township who was ticketed for putting his Obama sign out early

Of course he didn't have to pay the fine because he did not know about the signage rules but there are Obama voters all over PA waiting to make history.

[not_too_L8]

100. I still think...

that with it going the way it has so far, she has to beat him by more than 10 points or it's a win for Obama

[IsItJustMe]

71. Even if he don't win Pennsylvania, he will do just fine their.

[Buzz Clik]

75. Maybe. There's a long time to go, but the polls suggest it will be a long haul.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Clinton got a significant bump from Tuesday.

[Vinca]

77. It would be nice, but he doesn't have to win it to stay ahead.

He would, of course, have a much better chance if Hillary would stop the smears and fearmongering. But, of course, that won't happen.

[hell-bent]

80. Not according to the latest polls.

Perhaps you should check http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.htmlthe latest polls at Real Clear Politics.com And, remember that the exit polls in Ohio and Texas showed the voters went to Hillary in the last few days before voting. Hence, no such thing as momentum. And, if you include Florida results, he has only a 291,906 lead in popular votes. That will be wiped out after Pennsylvania.

[Danger Mouse]

82. I doubt he will win Pennsylvania, and he doesn't NEED to win Pennsylvania.

He will still lead in pledged delegates.

[hell-bent]

95. But, what will the un pledged delegates

think about a candidate that can't win the big, blue states? "We don't need no stinking caucuses!":rofl:

[Danger Mouse]

98. He'll do just fine.

More and more superdelegates are coming over to his side. The cold, hard math is against Clinton.

[OzarkDem]

87. No, its a real, legitimate election

Obama doesn't do well in those.

What's next, is Obama going to ask that we caucus for the GE instead of having an election?

[not_too_L8]

112. So none of the last 12 contest were real?

I think you just insulted the Dem's in allot of states. People who took the time to go vote for their choice, no matter which camp they were for.

And you may have noticed I didn't say (no matter what side your on)... Because we are on the same side right?

[aquart]

97. Of course he will, dear.

Now just have some more of this lovely KoolAid and he can be king of the world.

[Danger Mouse]

101. not_too_L8, i don't agree with your analysis of what will happen BUT...

don't be discouraged by the snarky assholes who came to piss on your thread.
keep hope alive! :hi:

[not_too_L8]

122. check out this tread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4924604

[RememberWellstone]

116. PIgs will fly

and dogs will make love to cats and..............right.

[not_too_L8]

120. I notice you have nothing to say n/t

[rodeodance]

134. what's to say about such a silly OP.

[not_too_L8]

141. facts...I notice you don't offer any

Snip//


PA districts

PA-1: 7 delegates. Pretty damn close to majority black but Hillary should do well among whites. Obama is still certain to win, but whether he gets 4 or 5 delegates is a turnout battle. I'll be kind to Hillary and assume it's 4-3 Obama.
PA-2: 9 delegates. 61% black, and the whites here are much more unfriendly to Hillary. This district is simply brutal for her. 7-2 Obama.
PA-3: 5 delegates. This is a good district for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-4: 5 delegates. Another good district for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-5: 4 delegates. Hillary should win most of the district, but she has a severe problem with it containing Penn State. No one will win enough to win more than 2 delegates apeice.
PA-6: 6 delegates. The parts of this district that demographically favor Obama vote Democratic. The parts that demographically favor Hillary vote Republican. Obama stands a damn good shot of doing well enough to win 4 delegates to her 2, but I'll be generous and call it a tie.
PA-7: 7 delegates. Very good district for Obama. 4-3 Obama.
PA-8: 7 delegates. Same deal. 4-3 Obama.
PA-9: 3 delegates. This is a good district for Hillary, but with 3 delegates margin doesn't matter. 2-1 Hillary.
PA-10: 4 delegates. Can Hillary break 62.5% here? It's worth noting that she only barely got around that in the parts of New York bordering the district where she got a bounce no doubt. But in this I'm always giving her the benefit of the doubt. 3-1 Hillary.



PA-11: 5 delegates. Good territory for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-12: 5 delegates. Also good territory for Hillary. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-13: 7 delegates. This district isn't overwhelmingly favorable to Obama, but it's tough to see how he loses. 4-3 Obama.
PA-14: 7 delegates. This is a tossup. Almost 24% black, but Hillary should do very well among whites. Frankly you might as well flip a coin to see how it votes, but I'm being kind to Hillary. 4-3 Hillary.
PA-15: 5 delegates. This district is changing, but still good for Hillary at this moment. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-16: 4 delegates. Hillary favored probably, but it's only 4 delegates. It'll split.
PA-17: 4 delegates. This is probably the blackest rural district outside of the south. It's 12.4% black, and the whites are mostly Republican, so the percentage of the black voters in the primary is larger. Flip a coin to see who wins, but it really doesn't matter due to the even number of delegates.
PA-18: 5 delegates. I could see a case for Obama here, but Hillary still favored. 3-2 Hillary.
PA-19: 4 delegates. Another 4 delegate district with 2 apeice.

Total? 52 delegates for Hillary and 51 for Obama. Now the 55 at large. I'm going to continue being generous to Hillary and assume she has a 10 point victory. 55% gives her 30 delegates to Obama's 25. That's a total victory over Obama of 6 delegates.


you are the silly one

[eridani]

121. Not smart to count chickens before hatching n/t

[WinkyDink]

123. PA. is Clinton Country.

Anybody NOT from here has NO IDEA of the incredible popularity of Hillary-backer Ed Rendell! HE (and the unions) will win PA for Hillary; and so will Bill, who is already coming here.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/06/bill-clinton-heads-to-philadelphia/

[BringBigDogBack]

131. preach!

[loveangelc]

133. lol maybe Pennsylvania will be Obama's Missouri....

[PseudoIntellect]

136. I expect PA to be another Ohio.

Hillary wins by a mid-sized margin, giving her enough of a delegate win to erase a week of Obama superdelegates. The media goes crazy, and Hillary thinks she has it won, even though she still trails overall by about 120 delegates. >__<

[fujiyama]

138. Not likely

but it would be a huge upset if it happened...

[Major Hogwash]

140. I agree. In 6 weeks, there won't be much left of the Hillary myth.

Let her run 3 AM ads all month long.
It won't do her any good.

Bill had ZERO foreign policy experience when he was elected President in 1992.