|
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 10:21 AM by Perky
First of all let me be clear. I want Obama to win the nomination because I believe he will have longer coattails and a sizable landslide. And that is important consideration to getting out of Iraq and advancing the concerns of most americans.
Yet having said that... You have to give Clinton Credit for the wins last night even if it did not change the delegate math all that much. She has absolutely earned the right to keep going.
Calls for Obama to drop out at this point are at best mentally impoverished and at worst intellectually lazy. Calls for Hillary to drop out because it is nearly impossible to win the delegate race is disenfranchising of those who have yet to vote.
Like it or not the primary continues.
The challenge is going to be the temptation for the candidate to start hurling kitchen sinks at each other in the run up to Pennsylvania (which at the end of the day is going to be another delegate math push. Both will move closer to 2025 but the difference will most likely be +/- 5 to ten.
Clinton supporters should be willing to admit that the will not win the pledged delegates. Obama supporters must reckon themselves to the possibility that they may not win the national popular vote.
With regards to Florida, if the current situation stands and neither the delegates or the PV does not count, Obama wins the Pledged Delegates and the national PV. It may well be that If they are counted, Hillary may win the national PV but the delegate split while it closes the gap is not a game changer.
Even in a fully contested do-over in Florida Hillary probably win the PV and the delegates count but it is entirely possible that she is better off letting the existing result stand because she could lose the national PV as a result. She might be better off fighting the battle to have them seated. The proposition of a Florida do-over would be a gut check for everyone. Not to mention very expensive and potentially divisive, and probably of marginal value to changing who is in the lead.
WHo knows what the Hell you do with Michigan?
The nightmare: The Super Delegates are currently positioned and will remain positioned to decide the nominee. If Hillary leads in Popular votes but Obama leads in Pledged Delegates... there are sound arguments both ways.
I applaud Hillary's gesture towards a unity ticket. And I appreciate the subtle meaning of how this could shake out.
But here is the point
By suggesting a national unity ticket, there is going to be a need to dial back down the vitriol coming from both directions and the attacks of surrogates because unity requires more than a balloon drop and a bumper sticker.
We need to elevate the rhetoric because whichever side is not the nominee is going to wind up very bitter if the current trajectory continues. That is not a dig at Clinton it is a caution to both candidates and a plea to everyone here on DU.
We need to start thinking about the words we use now and their impact on the convention, the electorate and on the fall campaign. The very last thing we need is to a third Bush term and a repeat of the ugliness we saw on the stage between Kennedy and Carter in 1980.
If we want to get out of Iraq. If we want to solve the health care crisis in this country, we have to win in the fall. I do not think it is wise to presume that the losing candidate would rally their troops to support the nominee if the process embitters and wears them out.
I WANT THIS THREAD TO REMAIN CIVIL NO FLAMES PLEASE.
|