What happened in Ohio?

[AJH032]

Every poll out there indicated a tight race. Some even showed Obama ahead. Now, Hillary is on track to win by double figures (not that I'm upset, I'm a Hill supporter). It just seems surprising to me, to say the least. It just shows we cannot trust these primary polls. They are not reliable.

[nomorewhopper]

1. my guess is the canadian nafta thing

but i really don't know

looks like hillary picks up 12 point victory in ohio

[lapfog_1]

5. At best she picks up net +9 delegates from Ohio

and at worst, she picks up net +5 delegates.

Obama is going to win net +10 from the Texas primacaucus, even though it appears that Hillary won more votes.

VT and RI canceled each other out completely.

Yup, it was a BIG win for Hillary tonight.... :sarcasm: :rofl:

[nomorewhopper]

11. I estimate HRC will take 10 more delegates than Obama tonight

fun to speculate and I really have no clue, so I'll just try to proportionally assign the delegates based on the current count in the states per the NYTimes.com front page.

from tonight's action, I'd estimate:

Obama picks up 179 delegates
Clinton picks up 189 delegates

1) Texas - 193 delegates
a) Primary (65% of state delegates are assigned via the primary)
HRC - 63
BO - 62

(i got these numbers from the actual TX secretary of state website)

b) Caucus (35% of the state delegates are assigned via the caucus)
assuming the BO55-HRC45 split
HRC - 30
BO - 38

2) Ohio - 141 delegates
assuming the BO43-HRC55 split
HRC - 78
BO - 61

3) Rhode Island - 21 delegates
assuming the BO40-HRC58 split
HRC - 12
BO - 9

4) Vermont - 15 delegates
assuming the BO60-HRC38 split
HRC - 6
BO - 9

[lapfog_1]

21. may I modify your estimates a bit...

Ohio is going to be, at best, +9 for Hillary... this is from MSNBC's Chuck Todd, who has been very involved with the delegate math. It has to do with the districts that Obama won, they have a DISPROPORTIONATE number of delegates per capita than the districts Hillary won.

The Texas Primary should, I think, be a draw (or possibly +1 for Obama, not the other way around)... again, the districts that he won have disproportionate representation.

And the caucus we won't know for some time... but from "man on the street" reports, it would appear that Obama won about 10 to 15 more delegates than Hillary.

VT and RI are as you state.

So... Ohio +5 to +9 for Hillary.
TX is +10 to +15 for OBama. (assuming the primary was +0)

Hillary lost ground in the delegate math last night. Maybe only by 1. Maybe by as much as 7.

Even if you take the BEST case for Hillary...

+1 for TX primary
+9 for OH
-10 for TX caucus...

net gain was +0... and that's the BEST she could hope for if the caucus reports are correct.

So she had a "huge" victory and gained zip. And another 369 delegates are no longer up for grabs. She needs a lot more states or much much larger wins to catch up at this rate.

[tblue]

12. the '3AM phone call thing,' the 'somali headdress thing,' the 'is he a closet muslim? thing,'

the whole kitchen sink worked like a charm. did you see 60 minutes?

[MadBadger]

2. Actually, no poll had Obama ahead. Zogby had them tied. SUSA had her up ten

[LisaL]

3. A lot more women than men voted.

She does better with women.

[CalGator]

6. effin' sexists. nt

[LulaMay]

9. Yes, it' so sexist to want equal representation. She's a great candidate.

[Amimnoch]

25. Umm, Sexism is wrong regardless of the side of the fence it is on.

Speaking as a male who voted for Senator Clinton yesterday in Texas, and followed up by going to the evening precinct caucus yesterday evening, I see no difference between a female voting for a female strictly because she is a female and someone who votes for say McCain because they don't want a female president. Sexism is sexism regardless of which side of the fence it's done on.

[LulaMay]

27. It isn't sexist to want equal representation. I wouldn't vote for Condi Rice...duh

Don't twist my words. I like my candidate, and said so. That is why I'm voting for her, because she's qualified AND a woman.

Leave it to a man to try and give a woman a lesson in what sexism is.

Would you accuse Obama supporters here of voting for him STRICTLY because he's black? I wouldn't. I understand why black people can want a qualified black president as much as I want a qualified woman.

Geez.

[Amimnoch]

32. "Leave it to a man to try and give a woman a lesson in what sexism is."?

How about "leave it to a woman to lack understanding in a man's point of view"?

No, I didn't think your sexist mind would like that one bit at all. Of course, I use that ONLY as an example and would never talk down to a woman with the same sexist disrespect you have shown me.

I would not accuse Obama supporters "of voting for him STRICTLY because he's black". Unless of course, like your headline, one of them came on here and said that's why they support him.

When it comes to GoP chatboards/blogs.. I expect archaic racist and sexist behavior. I find it very saddening when I come here and see the same thing. You want representation that represents your "sex"? I'm sorry, but I'm so glad so much of the rest of the country has moved past that dark ages way of thinking, and I'm so proud of my party that we have the two candidates we have because of their speaking ability, leadership, experience, and personal appeal to masses. I always vote for the candidate who best represents my political points of view, not for the color of their skin, or for their gender. I will never vote for or against a candidate for those qualities.

As a gay man, I wouldn't vote for a candidate because he/she was glbt, unless their political positions more closely matched my own political beliefs than the other candidates on the ticket.. Just being gay doesn't qualify a candidate for my vote, and neither should sex or race..

[Skittles]

4. I know a lot of people were turned off by the whole "rock star" thing

this setback may actually be a plus for Obama moving forward

[tblue]

7. pls explain

[Skittles]

13. how it could help him?

well, I can say for myself, seeing Obama's fierce determation during his speech was the first time I actually saw something there - being put on the defensive just may bring out the real Obama

[tblue]

15. made him seem more human, maybe?

To be honest, I felt almost like I was falling in love tonight watching that speech.

[Skittles]

16. less glossy perhaps? more substance?

I think Obama has very much been given a free ride (NOT his fault) - I honestly thought he'd do badly if he faced true challenges which to me would make him less likely to beat the repukes - now he really has a chance to show what he's made of - his speech was a great start

[tblue]

17. on that subject, check this out:

Pyrrhus' Playbook

http://www.counterpunch.org/cockburn03052008.html

[Skittles]

23. mmmm

I wouldn't go so far as to say it is a great day for McCain....for one thing, his big repuke nominee win is COMPLETELY overshadowed by the Democratic horserace....and the more states who count in the primaries will mean more votes in November; also, better for the Democratic nominee to fix their mistakes now before they take on the repukes....yes INDEED

[LulaMay]

8. People voted their convictions, despite pundits and polls. Zogby has zero credibility.

[jgraz]

10. She learned from Karl Rove: slime works.

She threw everything she had at Obama and she timed it well enough that he couldn't effectively counter every false accusation before the polls closed. Hate to say it, but Obama may have to start throwing a little shit back her way.

[lapfog_1]

28. I think that discussion is going on right now.

My bet is that Obama quits attacking Repukes in the stump speech and starts attacking Hillary.

And the campaign will fight poo with poo. Hillary brings up Canada/NAFTA, Obama brings up Hillary's close association with Indian outsourcing companies.

It's going to get real ugly.

[jgraz]

30. Sadly, that's his only choice at this point.

He's got to "kitchen sink" her right the fuck back. Lucky for us, the Clinton sink has a lot more nasty shit swimming around in it.

[FrenchieCat]

14. All of the voters that will vote for a Democrat anyways voted for Clinton.....

and all of the young voters who may not vote in November
All of the AA who are pissed and may not vote in November
All of the men who will not vote for Hillary in November
All of the Independents who will vote for McCain in November
All of the Downwind seats that will lose because of the missing voters.....

and all of the Republicans who will come out to vote against Hillary Clinton

will be way more than the 20% racists who will not vote for Barack Obama.


If Hillary is the nominee, we are truly fucked.

[tblue]

18. You've listed all of my fears. That's how I see it, too. Nothing personal against her, but I think

it's true, I am very sorry to say.

[FrenchieCat]

20. Yep......but those screaming she wins big blue states in closed D primaries

don't see it....which is why they think that her doing that is a "feat". Well it ain't.

And they also don't realize that everyone that is voting for Hillary, for the most part, except for the racists, will vote for Obama.

In other words, she needs him more than he needs her. He can find a VP to mitigate some of his "issues"....she can't, cause Obama is one of a kind. She's just another divisive politician....who brings a trail of garbage with her.

It's gonna be sad if Obama is not the nominee; sad for us.

[Buve]

24. Obama only wins caucuses

and THAT is going to win the GE?

[JeanGrey]

29. You are correct...... Why do you think Limbaugh urged

so many republicans to vote for her? Looks like they listened doesn't it?

[Dogmudgeon]

19. More people voted for Hillary

The polls are fine for checking trends, but they are completely unreliable for establishing absolute numbers.

--p!

[althecat]

22. Good question.....

[polticalpout]

26. Hill went hardcore negative, said McCain would be better than Obama

put the fear into the people, it works (see Bush '04). Also I think this state has a lot of people afraid of a black President...pay back time for whitey??? Not sure what the fear is? Also the NAFTA attack.

I'd like to hear Obama talk more about China and how under Clinton (2000) they were given Permanent Normal Trade status, forget NAFTA how many jobs are going to China since this agreement came about?

[Berry Cool]

31. I see you're all ignoring the Dittohead vote.

It was heavy here. Rush told his zombies to get a Dem ballot and vote for Hillary, and many obeyed. That doesn't mean Ohio adores her.