Before you start worrying about TX, track the county map : Obama WILL win the primary

[mythyc]

I, again, vow to eat crow if I'm wrong

CNN's county map: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#TXDEMMAPprimary

scroll your mouse around the map. almost all the counties for Hillary (light blue on my computer) are nearly 100% reported and the high high lion's share have finished or are nearly finished reporting. But then look at their populations: the high majority is small, most about 200-300 votes; very few reach into the thousands, just one or two into the tens of thousands.

El Paso is a notable exception that HRC will win; so far it's barely reported and it's total votes will be high for her. We'll also need to fall the Mexican border closely, though populations there are still notably lower than the urban centers...

BUT, then scroll on over to the dark blue counties, which Obama is winning. Nearly all of them are dense population centers: Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Obama for the most part holds the edge in all of them. Now look at the percentages of precincts reporting. Most of them average at 15%, with Obama landslides already occuring in each. A good share are even below 3-5% reporting. Only one or two are up around 24% reporting. And nearly each one of them already has massively more reported votes than dozens of those smaller, back woods HRC counties (jk, don't have a cow Hillbots; we're sure you'll gloat over plenty viz Ohio).

My Prediction: It's close now, but Obama will beat her. A nail biter to be sure, but my projection is her beats her by 4-6% total in the primary when all is said is done. It won't be called until after 2 a.m., West coast time.

whudya think?

I love this stuff :P

[u2spirit]

1. From your lips to God's ears

NT

[johnnydrama]

the funny thing is

If Houston reports a big block of the votes at once, it could jump +25,000 for Obama.

[NashVegas]

5. The Funnier Thing

Is that I've seen counties that were dark blue for Obama turn light blue for Hillary, as today's votes are counted.

It's a toss-up.

[TheZug]

2. 4-6% may be a little high, but I think he'll pull it out

[mythyc]

6. ok, i'm impetuous...

3-4%

the eat crow vow, for the record, only applied to his winning ;-)

[deadmessengers]

7. I think that's about right, and that your overall analysis is strong. n/t

[DJ13]

3. I agree

But dont tell the Hillary supporters, lets let them be in for a surprise.

[soleft]

4. From Daily Kos

9:58: Many of the early vote "precincts" in Texas have largely been counted, and the election day precincts are beginning to allow Hillary Clinton to close the margin with Barack Obama. But a lot of the bigger counties haven't counted their early votes yet, so the margin could widen in Obama's favor again.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. I don't see how she wins TX (unless Dallas early voting is already in the numbers)

[ctaylors6]

13. Dallas county (in CNN map) includes early voting. Here's link to dallas county elections:

http://enr2.clarityelections.com/Default.aspx?page=S&c=dallas&eid=330

[DuaneBidoux]

9. I came to the same conclusion 20 minutes ago. This is a cool tool!

[Stargleamer]

10. I see Obama won Loving County. . .

7 votes to 5. There's more registered Democrats who vote in my apt. complex.

[fishwax]

16. there are probably more people in your apt. complex than in loving county

it is the least populous county in the United States: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_County#Demographics

:)

[Unsane]

11. He has to win TX

Otherwise this goes way far into April/May.

If he can win TX, I think the pressure will really mount for her to pull out.

[u2spirit]

12. Obama just surged back in front

50-47

[quakerboy]

14. where do you see that?

[Jersey Devil]

17. don't see it - link? (nt)

x

[meow mix]

15. your right the delegate rich areas are going heavily obama

whew

[ElsewheresDaughter]

18. of the "REGISTERED Texas Democrats .......67% voted for Clinton

[texasleo]

19. Indies and pubs are keeping Obama alive. Ohio who?

[MattNC]

20. I don't know

Her lead keeps growing every time I refresh it seems like.

[quakerboy]

21. @!#$$$

you gave me hope. whats with that?

[Horse with no Name]

22. How would you like that crow cooked? n/t

[mythyc]

25. I humbly congratulate Hillary on her victory in the Texas primary

she won a hard-fought campaign there :)



looking forward to seeing how this all plays out from here! hopefully it won't get too difficult for either set of supporters

[in_cog_ni_to]

23. WRONG. Texas has been called for HILLARY!

Start eating.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

24. Wow. You Put Will In Bold. How Sad For You.

:rofl: