New Polls: Bush Now Leading In Michigan and Nevada

[TheStateChief]

Marketing Resource Group poll of 600 registered Michigan voters conducted March 8-14 shows:

Bush: 47%
Kerry: 45%

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040319/def013_1.html

---

Meanwhile, a new Mason-Dixon poll of 625 Nevada voters conducted March 15-17 shows:

Bush: 49%
Kerry: 38%
Nader: 4%

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Mar-21-Sun-2004/news/23477458.html


There is some interesting data underlying the polls that you can get to via the links above. What's most troubling to me, however, is that Kerry's own people are admitting that the Bush ad blitz IS having an effect. KERRY NEEDS TO RESPOND NOW!

[Dookus]

1. No

he really doesn't need to respond NOW!

We have a long way to go. It is not a requirement that he lead in every poll 8 months before the election.

The sky is not falling.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[molly]

Maybe Dean was the answer to YOU but NOT 99.9%

of the people.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

7. Yes, the guy that only won his own state of 650,000 would be doing

far better now :eyes:

[Nicholas_J]

14. Thats funny

Because every poll taken during every primary or caucus as to who would be sest able to beat Bush from every pollster showed that Dean would be the candidate most easy for Bush to beat. Even in New Hampshire ,supposedly Deans back yard, only 22 percent of people who voted for Dean beleved he had any chance of beating Bush.

Dena could not stand up to his own record being revealed to the public duding the nomination process.

The idea that he could stand up to the atack ads that Bush is engaging in which are far worse than anything Dean faced during the nomination process is simply laughable. In fact national polls shwecd that twice as many ddmocrats would have voted for Bush if Dean was the nominee than any if any other candidate was the nominee. SO cry away. A Dean nomination simply would have allowed Bush to sleep through the next eight months and still be president.

There is one word that aptly descibes Dean and that is loser.

Deans favorability to unfavorability rating was at a two to one ratio for the last three months of the polls. That means for every person whi trusted him or thought he was honest two thought he could not be trusted.

[KittyWampus]

9. Right, Dean Had A Magic Wand

That magically made bad press, no matter how biased, disappear.

[rockymountaindem]

10. I suppose you don't think that

Dean would be getting slammed as a proponent of gay marriage and for being "angry", or a "reactionary" or someone "selling an agenda of hate". No matter who the candidate is or what party he/she is running for, there is always something to attack. Nobody is perfect.

Personally, I feel that Kerry is better equipped than Dean to handle these attacks. Back in the primary Dean began to respond to attacks with a kind of self-righteous anger. That appeals to some, but it would have been easy for Bush* to paint Dean as a hothead. Not good.

Give it time. Seriously, Kerry is building his war chest as we speak (hint: donate now) and has plenty of ammo to attack Bush* with over the summer. The real campaign doesn't start until after he has picked his VP and after the convention. He will be able to combat Bush*.

[Nicholas_J]

22. Every poll being run while Dean was the frontrunner

untilt the day he withdrew showed Bush slaughtering Dean. Dean's record could not stand up to the lightest of scrutiny during the nomination process, which was a rather mild process this time around. It would be completely destroyed by Hurricane Bush.

[AlinPA]

23. He has been defined by cable "news" channels. Its tough

to come back once they've done it. Next late-night comedy shows. The media control is huge.

[molly]

3. And - those numbers are good this early in the game

[Pale_Rider]

6. I would agree ...

... since the Republicans are flush with cash in deep pockets and would dearly love Kerry to burn his cash before the general election. Eight months off is still a long way to go.

[TheStateChief]

12. Yes and No

Yes, 8 months is a long way to go.

No, the sky is not falling.

But I disagree with your position that he doesn't need to respond now because every day that Kerry allows the Bushies to define who he is and what he stands for without response simply allows those lies to take deeper root than they otherwise might. We can disagree how important this is now (or later), but it seems pretty apparent by most of the polls that the public is slowly viewing Kerry as someone who doesn't have core beliefs and, not surprisingly, his negatives are going up.

[spooky3]

52. I agree. Further, more Dems with $ may be encourage to contribute

if they see the race as neck and neck or see Kerry falling behind.

[eaprez]

4. Some weeks

Bush will go up and some weeks Kerry will go up. Its cyclical...the polls are as fickle as the public. Too early to get in panic mode. Take a week off like Kerry did and relax.

[eaprez]

11. Another Poll

The Gallup Poll on Economy...Michigan is a -5...the highest negative of the five states considered to be battleground states. (Florida +8 *good news for Bush* , PA -3, Ohio -4, Wisc -4, Michigan -5). THAT is good news for our team.

[Nicholas_J]

28. Odd

Bush has been trainling Kerry in Florida in every polls taken in this state for the last six weeks, Including the Survey U.S.A. poll taken this week.

[eaprez]

37. Not on the Economy

go to the Gallup web site.

[Nicholas_J]

53. In the polls as to who is

will win Florida and who will not he is trailing Bush.

IN last weeks Rasmussen Poll

Kerry 48 percent Bush 45 Percent

The Prior Week Miami Herald Poll

Kerry 49 Percent Bush 43 Percent

ARG the same week as Miami Herald

Kerry 45 Percent Bush 44 Percent.

Three polls in the last two weeks showing Kerry in the leading Bush in Florida.

One poll, maybe an anomaly, but when all of the most recent polls put Kerry in the lead, Kerry is in the lead.

This site gives all of the polls from all states having recent polls and Kerry is wiping the floor with Bush right now in state polls, where the electoral votes are.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html


Kerry is in the lead in states withe Twice as many electorl voted as Bush is in the lead in. I'll let Bush have Nevada as long as Kerry keeps Ohio, and it looks like Kerry is going to Keep Ohio.

[ugarte]

5. Kerry needs to pick a running mate

and hit the ground running, campaigning in every state and GOING ON THE ATTACK. You can't win by playing defense.

[fearnobush]

8. The sheep of these states will hardly remember these ads

once the Bush Chaney team crumbles under defense of scandel after scandel. Wait for them. Let the Scumbag fucking Satan party pukes...Bush Chaney waste there dirty millions this early.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

13. Sorry State Chief, read your own article. 10 months ago Bush was

far ahead of Kerry. The state is trending BACK our way in the case of Michigan:
Such numbers are in stark contrast to an answer to exactly the same question posed in an IMP/MRG poll 10 months ago. In May of last year, Bush led Kerry by 54% - 29%, with some 17% claiming to be U/RtA/DK.



Same thing is true in NEvada....the trend is going DOWN for Bush even though the Democrats have a registration disadvantage combined with the fact that Bush is advertising heavily...Kerry hasn't even started in Nevada and Yucca Mountain IS a big deal for them.

The main distinction between the 2003 poll and the one conducted last week had to do with Bush's popularity. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed last week had a favorable opinion of Bush, compared to 37 percent unfavorable. The July 2003 survey showed higher support for Bush, with 57 percent favorable compared to 23 percent unfavorable.

[TheStateChief]

27. Sharpton was leading Kerry three months ago

Yeah, it's nice that Kerry has closed the gap, but polls since Iowa are more relevant than polls comparing his position last year.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

31. So what? It still indicates he has gained and Bush has lost

I am not looking at Kerry's numbers, I am looking at Bush's..

[ScreamingMeemie]

40. Living here in Michigan, Sadly..I see far more Bush/Cheny stickers

than Kerry stickers. :( In my opinion, Kerry made a big mistake in not courting Michigan leading up to the primaries. Many people are upset by that. Many, many, union workers are upset by that. :hi:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

45. I do agree with that

and ALL the Dems made a mistake with the Detriot debate

[ScreamingMeemie]

46. Very true! But we're still gonna win!!!

We have to. My husband is constantly bringing info to work, and has changed the minds of several co workers already! :hi:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

48. That and I would invite you to express

your sentiments about how it is on the ground in the Kerry Blog...they actually DO consider the feedback they get.

[ScreamingMeemie]

50. I appreciate that. I think I may do that. Both sides are misjudging

Michigan right now, and I don't want to see BuschCo. get their foot in the door.

Thanks

[IronLionZion]

15. 600 voters eh?

that doesn't sound like a big enough sample so there must be a large margin of error. Michigan's Democratic governor, senators, etc. will help Kerry win it. Nevada is a lost cause.

[bucknaked]

17. The most-exposed first term President, ever...

...with all the favorable ratings he had after 9/11, after he decided to "fight back," he still can't even get out of the margin-of-error in most polls.

I'm not too worried. Especially once Kerry and Mr. "Glib" start debates, I think people will wise up.

[AlinPA]

Debates on TV? No way the moron will take on Kerry.

"Too busy prosecuting the war"

[Nicholas_J]

18. Most recent polls still show Kerry

With far more assured electoral voted that Bush. Ahead in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well puts Kerry within ten electoral votes of the win right now. THe recent Michigan poll cited shows Bush ahead, but three other Michigan polls taken during the same period, through local Newpspaers Show Kerry leading in Michigan. Depends on what percentaged were polled in this one, as Kerry is beating Bush by 54 to 30 percent in th Arabic Community which is sizable in Michigan, and by an even greater margin among the Black voters who constitute a larger than usual share of the electorate in Michigan, which is why the new media polls show Kerry way head of Bush in other polls. Michigan also has a far heavier than average amouont of Union membership and the AFL CIO is stronger there than in any other state in the Union. So far Bush's amazing move forward on Kerry is being based on the result of one national poll (CBS/NYT) and a few local polls from rather small and relatively unknown marketing companies.

[displacedtexan]

19. Facts

Gore won MI handily in 2000.

MI is currently bleeding jobs.

Coming from behind in any race makes a much better story (and inspires more voters) than staying ahead in the polls all the way from now until Nov.2nd.

JK's campaign has a real strategy. They don't just play it by ear.

BushCo is suffering from "panic attacks." Every time their poll numbers go down, they launch lie after lie.

[rockymountaindem]

21. Nobody's brought up the Arab-American vote yet.

Michigan has the most Arab-Americans in the US. They voted overwhelmingly for Bush in the last election, but now they're mad as hell. I saw one article where it said Bush* was polling at 2% among Arab-Americans, and one of their community leaders said "I'm surprised... how did Bush* even get 2 percent?"

That's another big one for our side. Plus they just replaced a Republican Gov. with a Democratic one in 2002, I believe. Same with PA and Illinois.

[Nicholas_J]

24. Latest Zogby polls

Show Kerry beating Bush among Arab Americans 54 percent for Kerry 30 percent for Bush. Polls among Black voters are even worse for Bush. Depends on where this poll was taken and how they did it. But even the article in which the polls is mentioned calls this poll bad news for Bush because ten months ago he was beating Kerry 54 percent to 29 percent in the same poll.

[bucknaked]

26. Yep, seemed like a strong Republican voting bloc, prior to Bush

I used to work with a very conservative (and gorgeous ;) ) Iranian Arab women. Her, her husband (a UAE national) and her family were quite supportive of Bush. I asked her if this was typical of most Arab-Americans, and she said most folks in her circles were staunch Republicans.

[ScreamingMeemie]

42. They possibly could be drowned out by the increasing number of

digruntled auto workers who are mad as hell at Granholm. :(

[rockymountaindem]

47. Aren't the auto unions going to endorse Kerry anyway?

[Nicholas_J]

20. The interesting fact about the MIchigan polls is

Kerry and Bush Tied in Michigan, Says Inside Michigan Politics Poll
Friday March 19, 10:50 am ET


LANSING, Mich., March 19 /PRNewswire/ -- George W. Bush and John Kerry are in a virtual dead heat in Michigan in their race for the presidency, according to an Inside Michigan Politics Poll.


Bush, who lost the state to Democrat Al Gore by about 5% in the 2000 Presidential contest, leads Kerry by a skimpy 47% - 45%, according to a March 8-14 statewide survey commissioned by the newsletter Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc. About 8% were Undecided, Refused to Answer, or said they Didn't Know (U/RtA/DK).

Such numbers are in stark contrast to an answer to exactly the same question posed in an IMP/MRG poll 10 months ago. In May of last year, Bush led Kerry by 54% - 29%, with some 17% claiming to be U/RtA/DK.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040319/def013_1.htmlhttp://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040319/def013_1.html


That this poll is being interpreted as bad news for Bush, rather than as the good news for Bush that the person posting this post is seeming to indicate.

If you look at other recent polls inMichigan especially in Detroit, the results are somewhat different:

Head to head

State-by-state matchups between Bush and Kerry have started to pour forth, and the National Journal has assembled them, highlighting most of the battleground states.

Florida, which has 27 electoral votes, will be ground zero again this year, three polls suggest. In an American Research Group poll conducted March 3-4, Kerry took 45 percent; Bush 44 percent, and Nader 4 percent. A Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times poll conducted March 3-4 showed Kerry leading Bush by 49 to 43 percent, with Nader at 3 percent. And a Research 2000 poll conducted Feb. 24-25 showed Bush leading Kerry 47 to 42 percent, with Nader at 1 percent.

In Illinois, which has 21 electoral votes, a Mason-Dixon poll conducted March 1-3 showed Kerry leading Bush 47 to 39 percent, with Nader at 2 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted during the same time showed Kerry with 54 percent, Bush with 36 percent and Nader with 1 percent.

In Michigan, which has 17 electoral votes, surveys suggest a close race. A Detroit News poll conducted Feb. 26 through March 1 showed Kerry leading Bush 46 to 40 percent, with Nader at 4 percent. An EPIC/MRA poll conducted Feb. 22-25 showed Kerry ahead of Bush 49 to 45 percent.

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4675031.html

[TheStateChief]

33. I didn't "interpret" this one way or the other

I just posted what the results were. I guess I could have said "Kerry gaining on Bush", but it wouldn't have changed the fact that he trails in both polls (neither of which I had seen posted here).

[Nicholas_J]

43. The title of your post

gives an interpretation that is at odds with the point that the article is making. Not that Bush leads, but that he and Kerry are now tied in a poll in which Bush had a a double digit lead the last time it was taken. The title of the article iteslef points out that Bush does not lead, but is in a neck and neck race with Kerry.

[ugarte]

25. Kerry needs to watch the visual clues also

To most Americans, skiing is for the elites, and Bush is out to paint him that way. Kerry needs to lose the coat and tie and get his hands dirty.

Did you see Bush in Orlando? No tie. Next, he'll be in Crawford, chopping weeds. Yes, it's Rovian bullshit, but images count to the average voter who might not be following the issues.

[rockymountaindem]

30. You know what else is elitist?

Owning your own fake ranch!!!

Skiing is not elitist! It's not up to Kerry to figure out other people's misperceptions of pastimes. If I hear that canard about skiing one more time here on DU I'm going to get my gear on and ski all over you! Go back to that other anti-skiing thread and read my analysis of how one can go skiing for $30.

My friend used to go skiing all the time. Now he's in the Marines. One of my other ski buddies is an Eagle Scout. Nobody thinks it's elitist.

[Gloria]

32. Ad suggestion....morph an image of Bush chopping wood into

Bush chopping healthcare, environmental health, etc......

I taught kids library skills, the most boring and obtuse thing in the world for the average lazy kid ....I made everthing CONCRETE (ie, finding a book using the call number === using a ticket to find your seat in a stadium...and I flashed tickets and call numbers) ....in other words, you have to take the words and give them an image that wakes up the dumbest American brain. Assume voters are in the third grade and aim for that level....

[TheStateChief]

36. No tie, sure, but...

did you see those pit stains? I guess Kerry has him sweating!

[eaprez]

38. Bush painting Kerry as an Elite?

Oh God that is incredibly funny and hypocritical.

[IndianaGreen]

29. A few thoughts about these early polls

The Bush machine is in full attack mode while Kerry is on vacation.

There is no Democratic ticket until the convention, so Kerry only has Kerry to defend himself and to counter-attack the Bush machine.

Seven months to the elections is a very long time indeed and a lot of things can happen between now and then.

I didn't care for Terry McCauliffe front-loading the primaries for a variety of reasons, but here is one reason I did not foresee: the long lag between clinching the nomination and the Convention has done away with all of the free publicity Democrats were getting during the primaries. We no longer have debates in which the candidates are bashing Bush, whenever they stop bashing themselves.

[Gloria]

34. Agreed, I've been ranting about this early nominee stuff ...if you want to

do it right, with the idea of saving money....hold a NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY about APRIL....Get the VP nominee in place within the month and get the team on the road by May something.

This state by state crap is a joke. Waste of money, time. You still have state of NJ, which is a real bellweather type of state at the very end and meaningless. Everyone should campaign through April, run the damned primary nationally and hit the ground fast....You get your free publicity through April; you have the "suspense of the VP" nominee game through most of April; then the team is in place in May and you run like hell until the convention.....

I'm going to post this separately for discussion.....

[BootinUp]

35. "Kerry Needs to Respond Now"

He's gonna need money. See thread on he only has 2.4 mil on hand.

[Pepperbelly]

39. 8 months out ... no big deal ...

The biggest problem that I see from the Bush Blitz is that his negative ads make politics so distasteful to ordinary, uninvolved people that turn-out could be depressed. But still ... 8 months out.

[alcuno]

41. That is TERRIFIC news for Kerry in Michigan.

According to the article, which I read, this time last year * led Kerry 54% to 29%. * has gone down 7% and Kerry up 16%. The headline of the article clearly states that it's considered to be a tie so I don't know why the poster is calling this bad news.

[Nicholas_J]

44. Correct

With two other polls taken within the last three weeks having Kerry with a significant lead on Bush in the same state.

[Nicholas_J]

49. Latest Rasmussen Polls From March 14-16

Have Kerry in the lead 48 percent to Bush's 44 percent:

Survey of 500 Likely Voters March 14-16, 2004 Michigan: Kerry 48% Bush 44%
Michigan 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 44%
Kerry 48%
Other 3%
Not Sure 5%

RasmussenReports.com

[WI_DEM]

51. while Kerry plays Bush is defining him

reminds me of when Dukakis took the month of August in '88 off to tend to governors business and rest up thinking that the "real" campaign will start on Labor Day. He blew a 17-point lead and let King George I to define him.

[napi21]

54. Cool it everyone. Wait till the 60 minutes story affects the polls.

Nov. is a LONG way off and the polls will be up and down for both every week until then. There's a lot of bad stuff coming out against Bush...Paul O'neil's story, Righard Clark's book, the 911 commission report will be issued before Nov.

No need to panic. Keep fighting and Kerry will win.