Honestly, why do you think Republicans are crossing over?

[Onlooker]

Does anyone really think it's likely that there are a lot of Republicans and Independents out to sabotage the election by crossing over and voting for one Democrat or the other? That seems dishonest, and while some people might be that politically obsessed, I think those people exist only in very small numbers. Not only that, both Obama and Clinton has real strengths and weaknesses. It's hard to say who would be the stronger candidate. I think in all probability that the vast majority of Republicans and Independents who are voting Democratic are doing so because they actually support the Democrat.

[ananda]

1. Honestly..

.. because the Democratic party has moved so far to the right.

[SammyWinstonJack]

6. ...

:thumbsup:

[papau]

24. or perhaps those GOP memos about supporting the weakest in the general Dem were not lies-just a plan

Indeed Pat Bucannon states that the idea began in 72 with Nixon and has been SOP ever since.

Of course now the Obama folks say it is proof of appeal to unhappy GOPers -

perhaps so - perhaps not


http://ironmyvote.com/obamas-popular-vote.htm

From a "Republicans for Obama" website:

http://ironmyvote.com/obamas-popular-vote.htm

Its on a site called Republicans for obama in texas
Home » Groups » Texas R.F.O. Primary Petition for Obama
E-mail to send to all your Republican friends
Sat, 02/16/2008 - 10:41pm
Attention All Texas Republicans and Independents!!
On March 4th, Texas Republicans and Independents will have an opportunity to end Hillary Clinton’s (and Bill’s) presidential ambitions once and for all!
Since Texas has on open primary, Republicans and Independents should sign in at their polling place and request a Democratic ballot. They should then vote for Barack Obama. Even James Carville admits that if Hillary loses Texas, “she’s done!” Republicans can help make this a reality!!! Just think, no more Clintons in the White House!
Voting Democratic this one time will have NO effect on your ability to vote in the next Republican primary or obviously on your vote in November. Since John McCain has the Republican nomination locked up, voting for McCain or Huckabee at this point will have no effect on the outcome on the Republican side.
After you vote during early voting or on March 4th, you ARE NOT done! Report back to your regular polling place at 7PM on March 4th to sign the Barack Obama list for caucus delegates. In a little known Texas voting quirk, 67 delegates to the Democratic convention will be seated because of these caucuses. This is a full one-third of the total number of Texas delegates. For Hillary to lose, she has to lose the primary votes AND the caucus votes. I urge you to vote against Hillary Clinton by voting for Barack Obama.
Please forward this e-mail to all your Republican and Independent friends so that we can help ensure the Clinton’s defeat on March 4th!!!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Similar instructions from the Obama campaign:

Here’s a video from the Obama campaign

Slickly produced, promoting their “Democrat for a Day” scheme: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUE4Kp0YERs

Obama Web page in Florida:

The following has been scrubbed from the web but was up for months at an Obama campaign site:
Quoting from the Google cache “as retrieved on Nov 30, 2007 02:11:00 GMT”
http:/ / www.google.com/search?q=cache:MVQ9FvgfVwoJ:www.obamaflo...

WANNA BECOME AN OBAMACRAT?!!!
By Obama Florida 2008
Published: April 24, 2007
….
That’s why “Democrat for a Day” was launched this spring by ObamaFlorida2008. Using the official forms provided by all Supervisors of Elections offices, you may re-register as a Democrat for that one day — when the primary is likely to be held — on February 5, 2008. You must do so before the end of 2007, to make sure it is done 30 days before the primary.
But this is not about some “hard sell” to recruit voters to become permanent Democrats. Not at all. After the primary, you may re-register back to the Republican or Libertarian parties, or revert to your previous status as an Independent! There will be plenty of time before the general election in November 2008.
….
But we’re finding that up to 20 percent of Obama supporters are registered Republicans.
In fact, during the first couple of weeks in April, some 150 Republicans indeed became “Democrats for a Day.” You might call them “Obamacrats!”

Obama Flyer in Nevada:

A flyer was distributed in Nevada by an Obama precinct captain, similar to the above Florida page - http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=26826


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Similar efforts:

Dick Morris’ explicit instructions to Republicans: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yt_jnhsyqg0

Obama’s Democrat for a Day training video: http://www . youtube.com/watch?v=JUE4Kp0YERs

MSNBC’s Chris Matthews on 2-19-2008 also talked about Republicans having "some fun" voting for Obama:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23255694 /
MATTHEWS: Let me talk to you. Let me go right now, Ron, is that your theory, that—well, it‘s mine, too—that if you can vote if you‘re a moderate or independent voter or you‘re a Republican who doesn‘t think it‘s important to vote on the Republican side, since it‘s locked up for McCain, have some fun and vote for somebody you have sort of an interest in, Barack Obama, perhaps?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More leads
-- we need to collect evidence of GOP crossover in many different locales, so that the superdelegates in each locale will understand where Obama's 'popular' vote is coming from

news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080222/ap_on_el_pr/open_primaries_1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If anyone has more evidence to add, pls email 1950democrat - a t - g m a i l . c o m or post it at http://1950democrat.livejournal.com/55788.html (may not appear immediately).

[ElsewheresDaughter]

31. this deserves its own thread...plaes make it a thread

[grantcart]

38. Yeah sure it could be that or it could be the emergence of one of the most

professionally run campaigns in the history of the US.

What I would be really interested in is the copies of the emails that were sent that were able to raise a crowd of 30,000 in 24 hours. (By the way if your interested I can get you several emails from people who think that the Apollo landing on the moon was staged, really really convincing evidence)



Austin, we did it again. We might have just pulled off the biggest rally in the country...again! And this time, we had only 24 hours notice. Incredible!
We'll never know the exact number of people who came to downtown Austin tonight to cheer on the next President of the United States. Some estimates have the crowd size closer to 40,000...but we'll go with the more conservative number. No doubt, it was a Texas-sized rally!

We had 6,000 people in the holding pen near the stage. We had about 15,000 more people stretching south down Congress Ave, and another 10,000 stretching east up 11th Street. The crowd was so big that we had to put up a giant jumbotron on 10th and Congress so that people could see Barack. Our campaign headquarters is at 9th & Congress, and the crowd stretched all the way back to our office. Unbelievable.

Thanks to all our volunteers who have been working hard since 4:00pm to make this rally a success. This people-powered campaign has inspired a new generation of activists, and we're going take back the White House in 2008.











For my model, I assumed that Anglos would make up 52.6% of the Texas Democratic Primary electorate, that African Americans would be 19.5% of voters, and that Hispanics would make up a greater number of primary voters than in 2004, but that the increase would not be really massive, and would only go up to something like 25.3%. I tried to base these numbers off of the 2004 Texas Democratic Primary exit polls, and off of the polls that have some (different degrees of) crosstab data available, SUSA, ARG, TCUL, IVR, Rasmussen, and ABC/WaPo.



As you can see in the crosstabs, SUSA, Rasmussen, and TCUL allpredict a large increase in Hispanic turnout over the 2004 Democratic primary, and all of those polling organizations have Hillary Clinton ahead, by varying margins. The one polling organization that has Hispanic turnout down or even is ARG, (one can't say which), and that is also the only polling organization that has Obama ahead. ARG is also the only organization that has Obama coming close to even among Hispanics, which brings us to the question of how Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are likely to fare among voters wedged into the racial categories of "White," "African American," "Hispanic," and "Other."



White voters

SUSA, TCUL, ARG, and Rasmussen all have Hillary ahead by roughly the same margin among white voters, which makes it a pretty easy call for me to assume roughly that same 12-14 point margin for Clinton. The only outlier is ABC/WaPo, which has Obama a bit closer among white voters. The striking results in states like Virginia and Wisconsin suggest that Obama might well close gap or even pull ahead among white voters, but if he is going to do that in Texas, the only poll it has shown up in so far is ABC/WaPo.

African American voters

With the one exception of IVR, the polls all generally agree that Clinton does not pass 20% among black voters, but SUSA and ABC/WaPo seemed to push African American leaners more than ARG or TCUL, and those leaners leant towards Obama. This is broadly consistent with Obama's performance among African American voters in other states, where he has often polled under 80%, but taken 80% or more on election day among black voters. Again, the results out of Wisconsin provide Obamafans with the hope that Obama might extend his dominance to 90%, as he did in Wisconsin, but I am not ready to project that Hillary Clinton will be crushed so massively among African American voters.

Hispanic voters

Among Hispanics, both SUSA and TCUL have Hillary up about 2 to 1 over Obama. ARG stands out, with Obama only behind 6% among Latinos. IVR is an outlier in the other direction - IVR has Hillary up among Hispanics by essentially the same margin that it has Obama up among African Americans. ABC/WaPo has Hillary up by a health margin (59%-36%), but one still less than 2 to 1. I would not be surprised if the results are ultimately pretty close to what the ABC/WaPo poll predicts, but as of now it is only one poll. While ARG has had a spotty record this election cycle, there are several reasons to suspect that it (and ABC/WaPo, to a lesser extent) might be on to something.

1) According to Gallup, Obama has pulled ahead nationally among Hispanic voters. Simply put, unless this is entirely attributable to polling error, it is difficult to imagine how Obama could be gaining nationally among Hispanics but not among Texas' large Hispanic population.
2) Hillary only ever really won 2-1 among Hispanics in a couple of states like California and Nevada. In states like Arizona and New Mexico, where more of the Hispanic population is not first (or even second) generation immigrants, Obama held Hillary's margins down. He also has done well in post Super Tuesday states among Hispanics, although because the Hispanic populations in those states has thus far been small, exit poll data is of only questionable validity.
3) Ron Kirk has shown that the idea that Texas Hispanics will not vote for an African American candidate, even against a Hispanic Democrat in a Democratic primary, is false.

Nevertheless, without more polling confirmation, I assumed in these projections that Hillary Clinton wins 2-1 among Hispanics. SUSA and TCUL speak louder than ARG.

Other voters

In Texas, although there are some native Americans and other mixed race persons, "other race" primarily means Asian American. Hillary Clinton won 3-1 among Asian Americans in California, which might lead Hillary supporters to hope that she can repeat that feat in Texas - and who knows, maybe she can. But there is no Asian vote, and there is also little polling data to indicate how either Asian or Other voters in Texas will vote. The only data is from SUSA, which actually has Obama ahead 56-40 among "Other" race voters. But "other race" makes up such a small percentage of the population that the margin of error must be through the roof, and SUSA's crosstabs don't really tell us much about non-white, non-hispanic, non-black voters in Texas.

Modeling Other Demographics

For my model, I assumed that African Americans, Hispanics, and Other race are monolithic blocs statewide, which is untrue but simplifies matters (you would understand if you saw my spreadsheet formulas). Additionally, much less data is available about how voting patterns among African Americans, Hispanics, and Other race voters voting patterns vary by demographic categories like income than for white voters, and less data is available about the distribution of those demographic categories by State Senate District. For example, I assumed that Hispanic voters in McAllen are just as likely to turn out, and just as likely to vote for Hillary Clinton (or Barack Obama), as Hispanic voters in Dallas, or as Hispanic voters in the rural Texas panhandle.

But for white voters, I adjusted the voter totals based on the difference between the State Senate Districts percentage of voters who are over 65, live in an urban area, make greater than $50,000, have a bachelors degree or higher, and who are college students. My model adjusts the totals based on the percentage of the State Senate District compared to the Texas State average for all of these demographic categories. My model adjusts the totals among white voters in Obama's favor when there fewer voters over the age of 65, when there were more urban voters, when there were more voters who have household incomes in excess of $50,000, when more voters hold bachelors degrees or higher, and when more voters are college students. It adjusts the vote totals in favor of Hillary Clinton when the opposite holds. Even though Obama cut into (and in some cases won) those subsets of white voters in recent States like Wisconsin and Virginia, Obama still did better among college graduates than non-college graduates, etc.

For every voter that is part of the % difference from the State average for the demographic categories of over 65, > 50K, bachelors degree or higher, and college student, I gave a 30% chance that their vote would shift from one candidate to the other, explained by that demographic category. For the rural/urban category, I did the same thing, but only shifted the vote by 10%.



South Texas

My model agrees pretty well with both SUSA and TCUL on South Texas, but may be a bit more favorable to Hillary than either. A much larger percentage of TCUL's sample (32%) than SUSA's (13%) comes from its "South Texas" region, suggesting that TCUL classifies a larger area, including San Antonio, as part of "South Texas."

West Texas

My model is a bit more favorable to Obama in West Texas than either poll, but this is probably because my data uses a loose definition of the term "urban," which seems to include small West Texas towns. In any case, the difference is not going to shift delegates. District 31, for example, is not really 81.5% Urban, which my data says it is. If you shift the Urban demographic number down to a more realistic level, Hillary gains a few percent.

Houston & East Texas

My model has Hillary ahead in East Texas, as does TCUL. SUSA probably has Obama ahead because it has a broader definition of "East Texas," which seems to include Houston. TCUL has Obama ahead by a fairly similar margin in Houston.

Central Texas

TCUL has Obama up big in its "Central Texas" region, which must include Austin. SUSA has a slightly larger "Central Texas" region, which it has going narrowly for Clinton. My model has Obama up by a bit in Austin, and generally down a bit in the rest of the State Senate Districts that might be considered part of Central Texas. My model may well be underestimating Obama's support in Austin, and I suspect it probably is. A full year ago, an Obama rally in Austin drew 20,000 people, whereas in State Senate District 14, which includes most of Austin, my model has Obama receiving 27452. Austin has a liberal culture unique to Texas which may not be fully explainable by differences in Rural/Urban, income, age, and educational demographics.

Dallas/Fort Worth & North Texas

Both TCUL and SUSA have Clinton up by 1 or 2 points in DFW/North Texas. SUSA seems to have a broader definition of North Texas, which probably includes places outside the DFW metroplex like Wichita Falls. My model has Obama up in the North Texas region. My model may be wrong. Or the polls, which have high margins of error for regional crosstabs, may be wrong. It is hard to say.

The John Edwards Factor

John Edwards is still on the ballot. Edwards received up to 15% of the vote in some Louisiana counties on Feb. 9th, even after dropping out, and also did very well in rural Oklahoma. He will surely get some votes, and likely will do relatively well in rural parts of East and North Texas near the Louisiana and Oklahoma borders, as well as in rural parts of Central Texas. Who knows, maybe the areas of Texas near to the New Mexico border, where Bill Richards did very well fundraising, will give him some love as well. The numbers in my model do not take this into account, and give all votes either to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Edwards' votes, at least in rural areas, are probably more likely to come from Hillary Clinton's total.


This East Texas GOP district includes the cities of Texarkana, Longview, Part of Tyler, and surrounding rural areas. All the demographics are unfavorable here to Obama, with the one exception of the African American percentage. The rural, white, over 65, non-college educated demographics all point my model towards showing Hillary winning the popular vote, but the 4 delegates here should split 50/50. It's worth noting here that the data on urban/rural population seems to generously define "urban" to include suburban areas and smaller towns.




This GOP district includes the Dallas suburb of Rockwall, some East Dallas exurbs, and rural areas. The above average AA population, the above average > 50K vote (concentrated in the DFW suburbs), and the urban vote should keep Obama close enough to split the delegates evenly. Hillary should carry the popular vote in the rural areas, but have more trouble in the Dallas suburbs.

27 other districts analyzed here:
http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=AED0781D3814A37DAA1FAF08167D0A83?diaryId=891


The Texas Caucuses

As mentioned previously, 67 of Texas' delegates will be determined by caucuses. Senator Obama has been doing very well in caucuses with the exception of the Nevada caucus,, in which he won the State delegates but lost the precinct delegates. Nevada has at least two relevant similarities to Texas - it has a high Hispanic population, and both campaigns will have a major presence, have a decent amount of time to set up their organizations, and will be strongly competing. In a great blunder, Hillary basically ignored most of the caucuses that Obama did very well in, which the exception of Maine. But she is not doing that in Texas. She has more than 4000 precinct captains signed up, and while Obama has in excess of 8000 precinct captains who can make calls, print up flyers, and print up canvassing walklists from Texasprecinctcaptains.com, but 4000 is nothing to sneeze at either, and it really depends on whose precinct captains actually do the work and turn out their voters. So while I would still favor Obama to win the Texas caucuses, don't believe the hype that Hillary has no chance at winning the caucuses. It is possible that she will do so.

So my projection (really more of a wild guess), is still that Obama will win the Texas caucuses 55%-45% The delegate breakdown for that is:

Obama: 55% - 25 At Large delegates - 14 PLEO delegates


Clinton: 45% - 17 At Large delegates - 11 PLEO delegates

In sum, my combined updated 31 State Senate District and Texas Caucuses projection (includes all of Texas' pledged delegates) is as follows:

Total Projected Delegates

Obama: - 102 Delegates

Clinton: - 91 Delegates

[babylonsister]

2. Look who their choices were, and look at the last 8 years. They

have no viable candidate and this country has a problem. Thinking rethugs realize we need a major change. My 2 cents.

[NoBushSpokenHere]

3. They crossed over in 2004, bush made them into members of the Democratic Party

He was the best thing that ever happened to our party.

[Donkeykick]

9. N/T

:toast: :thumbsup:

[Sadie5]

4. Indys will vote Dem now

But wait for the election, they will run right back to the repub side. Those who choose to believe that a big crossover will propel their chosen candidate in the WH are not dealing in reality. It's another repub game.

[boston bean]

28. Indy's will vote for John McCain. nt

[Debi]

5. I think they're sick of the 50% +1 government

They want a workable government rather than having to wonder if they accidentally turned on "Friday Night Fights" rather than C-SPAN while viewing Congress in action.

[TheDoorbellRang]

7. We can only contribute anecdotal evidence to this

My husband and I both consider ourselves independents. I lean left; he leans right. I support Obama. He's not as politically involved as I am by any stretch, but he's looking at Obama or McCain in the GE. He's also said he would never vote for Hillary because of the dynasty reason. I, of course, would vote for her if she's the nominee.

[Warren Stupidity]

8. There is no evidence of 'crossover sabotage'.

An effective effort to change the outcome would require a large and visible organized effort and no such thing exists. Instead we have anecdotal evidence and desperate Clinton supporters eagerly grasping at any comforting theory to help them rationalize their candidates failure.

What we have seen, across the board, is a large increase in voter participation in the Democratic primaries. That is all good news regardless of who our candidate is.

[westerebus]

17. Are you so sure?

Have you seen the "Anybody but Hillary" bumper stickers? It is not a vast right wing conspiracy by any means. Though it is easier to defeat a candidate in the primaries then in a general election. Voting against a candidate in a primary helps to determine who the opposition will be in the GE. As a matter of fact more votes were cast then there are registered voters in my county. The county is very conservative to begin with. I live in Virginia.

[Warren Stupidity]

20. Yes I am sure.

For example: in NH we had a huge increase in Democratic ballots and Clinton won. So I guess we have to ignore all the states where Clinton won which had open or semi-open primaries and increases in Democratic party participation. Then, once we have carefully cherry-picked our data to match our hypothesis we are left with no actual substantiating evidence of an organized conspiracy other than some viral emails and anecdotes related by disgruntled Clinton supporters. Yes I am sure.

However, given that Obama is polling nationally better than Clinton against McCame, why exactly is the VRWC shooting themselves in the foot like this?

[westerebus]

26. New hampshire.

The turn out for either Obama or HRC is great in many ways. The indies are out and the Dem's are out in big numbers too. Once you cross the Mason-Dixie line you're in a whole different ball game. I'm not a HRC supporter to answer that unasked question. The right is voting against HRC, it's a "NO" vote. Polls are as good as yesterday's newspaper.

[havocmom]

22. Thinkin there are probably some who crossover to vote AGAINST a candidate

but that they are few and far between. Lots and lots of life long Republicans have had enough with how their party has been taken away and given to the religious fringes and the corporations. Lots have lost some, if not all their real retirement nest eggs. And the war is not popular with any of them I have spoken with. Even the most die-hard GOP good ol boys in my 'hood said, re Iraq "We got the old man
Have heard life-long conservatives singing the same tune: The GOP does not stand for what I stand for. Have heard many shy ranchers say things like: I guess I'm a Democrat, cuz I sure as hell don't see eye to eye with the Republican politicians anymore.

Some, some of the crossover are the pissed off fringe who think their tiny voices matter. Most, I am willing to bet, are genuine in their actions and feelings. If they all crossed just to vote against HRC, they would have waited to do it in November. Nothing the GOP has line up could get out the GOP vote quite so well as the chance to vote against a Clinton.

Am seeing formerly life long Republicans here where I live, probably one of the reddest (per capita) counties in the US, discussing 'that Obama fella makes some damned good points'. People where I live are basically quiet and almost NEVER talk politics. There has been LOTS of talk about how screwed up the country is now because of the crooks running it and the GOP.

And in a county where registered Dems could all fit in a VW (<---seriously) only 3% of those who could have gone to the GOP caucus went.

Thinking the RNC is gonna find out the Heartland is LONG GONE.

[westerebus]

29. That's good news.

Many in the repug party here are not happy with the right wingers because of Iraq, I just don't see them going to the polls in the GE and voting Dem. Lots of anti Clinton fever though. I do see them casting "NO" votes in the primary.

[havocmom]

41. Have heard some here say they will vote for Obama in GE

Lots of racism here too, so believe me, this is a HUGE breakthrough for a lot of people

[westerebus]

42. Just the opposite.

The repugs are counting on race as their get out the vote factor. It will get real ugly the closer we get to the GE. The Nixon strategy of how to win the south is alive and well according to the good old boys I work with.
Obama has run a great campaign and deserves the nomination if and when he locks it up. Read that as being positive. Repugs voting for HRC does not to diminish that fact Obama has run the better race. To deny that repugs would cast a "NO" vote against HRC in the primaries is under estimating your enemy IMHO.

[havocmom]

52. 13,000 cheering supporters in Boise, ID! Race isn't as big an issue as status quo is

Obama rallies have been huge in places my husband calls 'white-bread land'.

The GOP is just about DOA after the past 7 years. Their slate of candidates stinks to high heavens. There are gonna be hoards of Republicans becoming FORMER Republicans this fall. The GOP has become something most of them don't recognize and won't support. All we gotta do is keep getting truth out there.

[soundguy]

10. Snakes are Always Snakes

Have you ever been through an election cycle before? Funny how neocons are evil liars who can not be trusted except when they say they want Hillary in the election. Then they vote for Obama. How friggen naive can you people be? Just remember I tried to tell you. But everyone is caught up in the furor right now and common sense is all but a memory. However, reality will be right back to remind you.

Hmm when was the last time a dem carried the republican vote? Now there is a nice sand box over in the corner go put your heads back in it and get back to me in November. And while you are at it get some exit polling data and ask your self, why would they say one thing and do another?

[thunder rising]

11. Most Repugs are like a lot of Dems, close to the middle, realizing the Repug base are psycho killers

And furthermore, it is becoming more evident that somebody HAS TO PAY THE COST OF GOVERNMENT. The last 7 years nobody has paid, the Repugs just borrowed and it looked good on the balance sheet. I believe the mass of Republicans switching is because they are Americans first and Republicans second.

[paulk]

46. you don't know many Republicans, do you?

The ones I know would would vote for the (R) on the ticket even if Jesus Christ himself was running on the other side.

Naive doesn't begin to describe your post.

[crispini]

12. There's a poll about this

I can say that on this board I have seen lots of anecdotal evidence, and have heard some anecdotal evidence here in Texas, as follows:

"Well, McCain's already locked up the nomination, so.....
* I'm voting for Clinton because she'll be the worst nominee."
* I'm voting for Obama because he'll be the worst nominee."
* I'm voting for Obama because I can't stand Clinton."
* I'm voting for Obama because I like him. "

Of course, anecdotal evidence can't be relied on.

Here is a Texas poll about Republican Voters Presidential Preference done earlier this week.

Clinton 10%
Huckabee 21%
Obama 10%
McCain 39%
Unsure 13%
Other 7%

Going to Vote
Yes 93%
Maybe 5%
No 2%
Original thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=180x48848

My final answer: Republican crossover won't matter. It's not coordinated by Karl Rove or anything, and ultimately it will be a wash for either candidate. (In the primary. The GE is a looooong way away.)

[Warren Stupidity]

21. And the explanation for voting when both races were competitive?

There of course is a better possibility for organized effective crossover voting sabatoge when one of the races has already been decided. That condition now exists, so Texas and Ohio and PA could be affected, not that I think they will. But this theory is being floated as an explanation for Clinton losses in primaries that happened while the Republican race was still competitive, and that is just nonsense.

Your poll data, which I think is your point, shows any crossover vote basically cancelling itself out. My guess is that very few Republicans will actually take a Democratic ballot in Texas.

[crispini]

35. I think Republican crossover in races that were competitive was probably pretty small.

And, indeed, the crossover may very well cancel itself out. I agree, I don't think crossover has been or will be much of a factor in this primary. :hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

13. Sabotage factor = Less than 10%

It is the triumph of the message.

[BootinUp]

18. If it encourages Dems to vote

one way or the other it can have a bigger effect. eom

[FSogol]

14. Many reasons

1. Most people do not follow politics closely. They follow trends and pick the side of the winners.
2. Many are independent or moderates.
3. Many just jump on bandwagons
4. Bush's disastrous policies have caused some financial or security conservatives to rethink their positions.

I believe the actual numbers of Repugs voting in primaries to cause trouble is so low and is not indicative of anything.

[liberal N proud]

15. IMO: Hillary and McCain

1. The right wing hates Hillary so much they are crossing over to vote against her.
2. McCain has been the presumptive 08 nominee for 8 years, it is a given in the republicon party. That frees up the masses of sheep to do as they are told and vote against Hillary.

[onenote]

16. all repubs have secret radio receivers that only they know about

they have them hidden in cellars and closets and very late at night they receive secret encoded messages telling them what to do.

I thought everyone knew this.

[texas_indy]

27. Now you've gone and done it!! You weren't supposed to tell!! LOL

Humm, why do indies and republicans vote for a democrat?

Vast right wing conspiracy?
Secret messages in the night?
Too stupid to understand politics even when they've lived through 40, and 50 and 60 years of it?


Just maybe, maybe, they REALLY WANT TO VOTE FOR SOMEONE THEY LIKE!!!!

OMG, what a concept!!

Oh well, some people like living in conspiracy land and want to glorify themselves for being soooo smart since they are privy to a grand secret knowledge which no one else can either understand, or is too stupid to understand, or too evil to understand.

I don't give a rat's ass how we get the votes!! As long as we get PRESIDENT OBAMA is the point.

Texas is Obama country.

[saltpoint]

19. Because voting for John McCain raises the specter of necrophilia.

[OHdem10]

23. A Primary is not final. When the election rolls around that vote

is final.

Some GOPers see this as an opportunity to "vote for a black candidate"
puts some salve on their conscience because of party history. They
know the vote is not final.

Some want to kill 2 birds with one stone. Get rid of Hilary in Primary
so they can beat Obama in GE. Some honestly view him as the weaker
candidate.

Obama specifically courts the GOP. Example Health Care. Obama
emphisizes NO MANDATES. This is the GOP Position.

If you follow C-SPan, ever since the Democrats came out for Health Care--
there has been a drumbeat by the Republicans.

McCain in his stump speeches: NO MANDATES for HC Insurance--No Mandates
for HC Insurance.

On the Hill: Boehner(House) leads as the underlings follow NO Mandates
fo Health Care Insurance. Same in Senate--One Senator after another
No Mandates for HC Insurance.

The GOP know it would be a political killer for them to say they are
against Health Care Insurance for all. Being the masters of framing
they know they can stop Health Care Reform dead in the water by demanding
NO mandates. Anyone with common sense knows mandates are necessary
to get everyone covered and therefore necessary to bring the cost down.
Health Care for all will never happen without mandates. Any person
who understands insurance knows this. Mitt Rommney knew this when
they set up the Mass. Plan. The GOP know they can prevent Health
Care for all by going after Mandates. Schwarzennegger learned this
in California.

So now you see there are many reasons the GOPers might vote for
Obama, including he promotes their philosophy on Mandates for HC Insurance.

Likewise he promotes Self-Reliance and personal responsibiliy
staples of GOP "red meat>". Texas Speech

[goldcanyonaz]

25. Yeah, but there's that little issue called abortion, or have they had an epiphany?

[grantcart]

30. I have news for you folks there are millions of republicans who are voting for Obama

because

1) They thought the war was a mistake (Baker and most of Bush41 team were against the war)

2) They are very concerned about wireless wiretapping (I have a relative who is a judge and is nominally Republican - because of abortion - and he is absolutely horrified at what is going on in bypassing FISA)

3) They don't like the republican nominees and don't like Hillary.

4) They may not agree on a policy level with him, but realizing that the democrats are going to be in power want a president that does not appear to demonize them.

But all of this is irrelevent because no one is seriously arguing that Obama's 11 victories by huge margins have been the result of Republican crossover.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

32. we know they got their orders from the RNC, ROVE/PNAC........see them here..................-

Obama's 'Popular Vote' -- from GOP mischief

For Superdelegates interested in the popular vote -- here is where much of Obama's claimed vote comes from. Not real Democrats, but GOP he has invited to come over just for the day, to damage Hillary.

From a "Republicans for Obama" website:

Its on a site called Republicans for obama in texas
Home » Groups » Texas R.F.O. Primary Petition for Obama
E-mail to send to all your Republican friends
Sat, 02/16/2008 - 10:41pm
Attention All Texas Republicans and Independents!!
On March 4th, Texas Republicans and Independents will have an opportunity to end Hillary Clinton’s (and Bill’s) presidential ambitions once and for all!
Since Texas has on open primary, Republicans and Independents should sign in at their polling place and request a Democratic ballot. They should then vote for Barack Obama. Even James Carville admits that if Hillary loses Texas, “she’s done!” Republicans can help make this a reality!!! Just think, no more Clintons in the White House!
Voting Democratic this one time will have NO effect on your ability to vote in the next Republican primary or obviously on your vote in November. Since John McCain has the Republican nomination locked up, voting for McCain or Huckabee at this point will have no effect on the outcome on the Republican side.
After you vote during early voting or on March 4th, you ARE NOT done! Report back to your regular polling place at 7PM on March 4th to sign the Barack Obama list for caucus delegates. In a little known Texas voting quirk, 67 delegates to the Democratic convention will be seated because of these caucuses. This is a full one-third of the total number of Texas delegates. For Hillary to lose, she has to lose the primary votes AND the caucus votes. I urge you to vote against Hillary Clinton by voting for Barack Obama.
Please forward this e-mail to all your Republican and Independent friends so that we can help ensure the Clinton’s defeat on March 4th!!!

Similar instructions from the Obama campaign:

Here’s a video from the Obama campaign

Slickly produced, promoting their “Democrat for a Day” scheme: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUE4Kp0YERs

Obama Web page in Florida:

The following has been scrubbed from the web but was up for months at an Obama campaign site:
Quoting from the Google cache “as retrieved on Nov 30, 2007 02:11:00 GMT”
http:// www.google.com/search?q=cache:MVQ9FvgfVwoJ:www.obamaflorida2008.com/plugins/p2_news/printarticle.php%3Fp2_articleid%3D17+St.+Johns+voters+are+already+re-registering+in+the+%22Democrat+for+a+Day%22+program.&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=opera

WANNA BECOME AN OBAMACRAT?!!!
By Obama Florida 2008
Published: April 24, 2007
….
That’s why “Democrat for a Day” was launched this spring by ObamaFlorida2008. Using the official forms provided by all Supervisors of Elections offices, you may re-register as a Democrat for that one day — when the primary is likely to be held — on February 5, 2008. You must do so before the end of 2007, to make sure it is done 30 days before the primary.
But this is not about some “hard sell” to recruit voters to become permanent Democrats. Not at all. After the primary, you may re-register back to the Republican or Libertarian parties, or revert to your previous status as an Independent! There will be plenty of time before the general election in November 2008.
….
But we’re finding that up to 20 percent of Obama supporters are registered Republicans.
In fact, during the first couple of weeks in April, some 150 Republicans indeed became “Democrats for a Day.” You might call them “Obamacrats!”

Obama Flyer in Nevada:

A flyer was distributed in Nevada by an Obama precinct captain, similar to the above Florida page - http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=26826

Similar efforts:

Dick Morris’ explicit instructions to Republicans: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yt_jnhsyqg0

Obama’s Democrat for a Day training video: http://www. youtube.com/watch?v=JUE4Kp0YERs

MSNBC’s Chris Matthews on 2-19-2008 also talked about Republicans having "some fun" voting for Obama:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23255694/
MATTHEWS: Let me talk to you. Let me go right now, Ron, is that your theory, that—well, it‘s mine, too—that if you can vote if you‘re a moderate or independent voter or you‘re a Republican who doesn‘t think it‘s important to vote on the Republican side, since it‘s locked up for McCain, have some fun and vote for somebody you have sort of an interest in, Barack Obama, perhaps?

More leads
-- we need to collect evidence of GOP crossover in many different locales, so that the superdelegates in each locale will understand where Obama's 'popular' vote is coming from

news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080222/ap_on_el_pr/open_primaries_1

[grantcart]

44. wow look guys she has an email shes got proof wow

So lets get real specific in this are you alleging that John Martin is working in conjunction with Karl Rove???




(BTW love your avitar - used to live across the street from where he lived in Princeton - when I was there you could still find janitors and other workers who had great anecdotes about him)

[texas_indy]

33. 5) And many are voting for him because they support him and will do so in the GE! (nt)

[Cameron27]

34. That doesn't make any sense to me,

because Obama *hopefully* could change the direction of the Supreme Court. No matter how much they dislike McCain, he still represents the RW conservative ideology and Obama doesn't.

[BootinUp]

45. You seem to ignore the fact

that Obama's success has been pinned on the fact he is getting crossover votes in the primary, and this has led to momentum on the Dem side. If some of that crossover is not legitimate voters in a GE then it raises serious questions about a central argument he is making.

[cali]

36. No, it's not likely- not in near great enough numbers to

sabotage the dem primary process, but let me answer your question.

Some are crossing over to vote for Obama because they plan to vote for him if he's the nominee.

Some are crossing over to vote for Hillary because they think that she'll be the weaker nominee.

Some are crossing over to vote for Obama because they thnk he'll be the weaker nominee.

Some are crossing over to vote for Hillary because they want to see the dem candidate and the dem party damaged by a long bitter battle for the nomination.

Some are crossing over to vote for Obama to defeat Hillary because of the power of their irrational hate.

I suspect the largest numbers are in the last category.

[doni_georgia]

37. I only know one republican personally who voted for Obama - her words

The math teacher on my team is a republican. She always votes straight ticket. She voted for Barack on Super Tuesday and here is her reasoning. She told me that out of all of the candidates, she thinks Barack is the one who will change things in Washington and end the war. She supported the war when we got in it, but changed her mind as the truth came out over why we entered. She thinks Dubya has ruined the republican party and the country over the past 8 years, and she thinks none of the republicans (those who were still running Feb 5) were willing to have the balls to admit that. I doubt she is alone in this thinking.

remember most of the people out there who vote republican are not like the republican leadership. Many people younger than I am that I know who are republicans are so because they remember Reagan fondly like some grand-daddy. They were too young to really understand his bad policies. Many are republicans because their parents were republicans. Just like many of your church goers are church goers because that's what their families have always done - not because they had some great conversion moment. Most people pay very little attention to politics. They go in and vote on election day knowing very little about the issues and even less about their candidate's positions or track records. Most people get their news from local TV. They listen to the people they associate with and go with what the majority are doing. Most people are not political the way those of us here are political.

My mom voted for Mike Huckabee. She knows nothing about politics - she won't even watch the local news, because she says it's depressing. When I asked her why she voted for him, she said, "He is a southerner, and a preacher, so he must be a nice guy." My dad on the other hand gets all his news from Rush Limbaugh - he voted for Romney. Neither of my parents would ever consider voting for a Democrat. My dad shouts "Tax and Spend!" My mom cannot even give me a reason. Honestly, I think she is a republican because her friends are all republicans. Just like my parents are Presbyterians, because all their friends go to the Presbyterian church. It has nothing to do with religion, it has to do with what's the popular church where they live. Neither one of them can even recite what makes a Presbyterian different from a Baptist or Methodist. This is just the generation they came from (married in 1957). They run around in a gang of friends, having fun, and doing what the majority wants to do. I love my parents, but this follower mentality has always driven me crazy beyond belief.

[MoonRiver]

39. Here's some of the reasons:

Barack Hussein Obama/Osama, Rezko, Muslim background in country full of "terror, terror, terror," MO only proud of country when her black husband starts winning the presidential primary.

Easy pickings in November, that's why.

on edit: Doesn't matter whether it's the truth or not. There are enough associations like these to smear and destroy BO. And if you don't think they'll do it, sorry, you are hopelessly deluded.

[whatchamacallit]

47. Why do I feel these are more your thoughts than theirs? eom

[BootinUp]

48. because it comforts you somehow? lol.

[whatchamacallit]

50. Nope, it's because you guys spend most of your time in here laying out the republican battle plan

and doing their propaganda work for them.

[CK_John]

40. For many it is a way to settle their moral misgivings for giving us *, but. . .

now that they are free of their baggage they will go back and vote the GOP in Nov with a renewed soul and clean slate(a least in their eyes).

[busymom]

43. anti-woman and anti-hillary

That's all there is too it...and I have it from one of the TX republican big wig's mouths...he is...my father. He is part of a big organizing effort to make sure that the 'bitch' doesn't get anywhere near the office....he hates her because she reminds him of everything he doesn't like in a woman, because she is 'controlling', not 'soft enough', looks hideous and because she's Hillary. He told me she will bring Canada to America and none of us will have healhtcare, that she will socialize medicine and ruin the infrastructure here for business and that he will not allow her to destroy this great nation.

He doesn't like Obama, but he is convinced that McCain will win based on his honorable service in Vietnam, experience and character. He is also convinced that the Larry Sinclair thing (though likely untrue bullshit) will kneecap the guy for the general election.

He is a big organizer and has a huge following of people going out to make sure that no woman gets in the white house.

I'm ashamed. It sucks. It does.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

49. Very few are crossing over as a strategic move

The vast majority of people are just not that interested in politics.

I believe the crossover vote is genuine. They just like Obama.

[democrattotheend]

51. My theory

I think Republican crossovers fall into three categories:

1) Republicans who are genuinely disillusioned with Bush and feel it's time for a change. Most of the anecdotes I have heard about these type of Republicans have suggested that a majority are supporting Obama, but I am sure that there are plenty of disillusioned Republicans supporting Clinton as well. These Republicans will likely vote for the Democrat they supported in the primary in the general, though it's unclear whether they would vote for the other Democrat.

2) Republicans who are voting for Obama because they are not confident about their party's ability to hold the White House and consider one candidate the lesser of two evils. This is similar to the way some Democrats in 2000 voted for McCain in the primaries, since Gore wasn't looking like such a strong candidate and they would rather have McCain as president than Bush. Most of the Republicans in this group are for Obama, since Hillary Clinton is such a punching bag (unfairly) for the right wing. This group includes people who despise Hillary Clinton and want to see her go down. Most of them won't vote for Obama in the fall, but some of them might stay home, since they are not terribly enthusiastic about McCain. This is more likely to be the case if Obama is the nominee, since he (at least so far) does not seem to inspire the same degree of irrational hatred that Hillary Clinton does.

3) Strategic voters. This is probably a much smaller group than the previous two, since most rank-and-file voters do not think as strategically as us political junkies. Conventional wisdom says that most of these voters are voting for HRC in the primaries, and most of the concerted efforts among Republicans to encourage crossover voting seem to be encouraging Republicans to vote for her. But some Republicans feel Obama would be the easier candidate to beat, and I am sure he is getting his share of strategic Republican voters as well.

[AZBlue]

53. Those that are switching are most likely doing it because of the candidate. But, the meme

that they are switching in droves is a Clinton scare-tactic. She's gotten that desperate. It's sad.

[dansolo]

54. Perhaps Republicans are trying to spin away defections

The Republicans are losing supporters big time. The stories of encouraging Republicans to cross over may be a smokescreen to hide the mass defections as more and more Republicans are now starting to identify with the Democrats.

[DemGa]

55. Barack is a fad; Hillary is the substance

These things are easy to see from the outside (the opposition); just as we could see the ineptness that was George Bush.. Dems with insight also easily see these facts.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

56. explain Dick Morris, Dennis Miller & the RNC e-mail giving orders for TX Rethuglicans to vote Obama?

[Onlooker]

58. Yeah, but ...

... someone would have to be both unethical and highly motivated to engage in that kind of practice. I don't think there are a lot of people like that (though there are some).

[LisaL]

57. They hate Hillary and want her gone.