Should Hillary Go Negative?

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Should Hillary Go Negative?

....The truth is that if the campaign dynamic doesn't change between now and the Democratic convention in August, it's hard to see how Clinton winds up as the nominee. Obama is the candidate with the momentum, the candidate who has become a movement. Like it or not, the quickest way to change the shape of a race is to begin drawing stark contrasts (call them comparative, call them negative) over the airwaves. Contrast/negative advertising gets a bad rap. Many voters blanch at the alleged pettiness of it. But in contest after contest, from the state legislative level to the presidential level, this type of advertising gets results. Voters may not like negative ads, but they tend to at least listen to the charges leveled in them....

***

....as the Clinton campaign is no doubt aware, the decision to go negative is freighted with potential landmines for their candidate.

For starters, voters -- even within the Democratic party -- are far more divided in their feelings about Clinton than they are about Obama. The knock on Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, is that they are too political, willing to do or say anything to get elected. That political reality makes Clinton a potentially flawed messenger to deliver a straight negative message against Obama in her television advertising. Put simply: Due to the doubts about her among Democratic voters, Clinton runs the risk of a significant rebound effect if she decides to attack Obama, whose entire campaign is based on uplift and hope, in places like Wisconsin and Ohio. Obama would have a ready answer that amounts to "Here they go again" that would likely resonate with many Democratic voters.

The other risk for Clinton in running a series of contrast ads is that Obama is better funded at the moment and is likely to enjoy that advantage throughout the next month. While the Clinton campaign has made much of the $12 million they have collected online since Feb. 5, it's still hard to imagine they have the sort of campaign cash to "double track" -- run a flight of positive spots as well as a series of negative ads -- in large and expensive states like Ohio and Texas. (Such double-tracking -- although probably impossible -- would allow Clinton to avoid being portrayed as simply a "negative" candidate.) If Clinton did decided to embark on a series of contrast spots, she would have to do so with the understanding that Obama, if he chose to respond, could throw far more financial weight behind his ads.

Given the high-wire risk/reward elements of going negative, what can -- and should -- Clinton do? We put that to a number of unaffiliated strategists. One response in particular stood out. One Democratic operative said she can win on contrast ads "if it's done correctly." The source added: "Think Mac vs PC ads. Huge attack ads, but make you smile and feel good." In some ways, the ad the Clinton campaign is currently running in Wisconsin is a variation on that Mac versus PC theme. A contrast is drawn but it doesn't look or feel like a negative ad. The next few weeks will show whether that ad was an isolated incident or a sign of things to come from the Clinton campaign.

Will it work?

(NOTE: The Wisconsin ad referenced is in the text at this link: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/should_hillary_go_negative.html)

[TalkAgain]

1. NO

[bbinacan]

2. Not a question of if

but when.

[Johnny__Motown]

3. Nothing will work, so who cares.

[Omega3]

4. the MSM sure isn't giving anybody the truth

[mmonk]

5. Her surrogates have been.

They probably will continue so she won't.

[cloud75]

6. We need to hear from people she has helped over the years.

People who have been helped by the CHIP program, soldiers returning from Iraq, farm workers who benefited from her work, the work in New York dealing with illnesses from 9/11 clean-up.. Put them on the air and let them talk about how she has touched their lives.

[THUNDER HANDS]

7. how would she go negative and not make herself look horrible in the process?

i don't think it can be done.

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

8. Hasn't she been negative from the beginning? n\t

[NoBushSpokenHere]

9. No, that will hurt her tremendously. nt

[gravity]

10. If she wants to pay for Obama's ads, then yes

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. she's in a tight spot....

a person with high negatives like hers can't appear to be "going negative". it will only reinforce what people have felt about her all along, and it may even make some people who have been pretty much indifferent toward her, take a long hard look at her again, and not in a good way.

Simply put, she can't afford to be seen as "on the attack", she has surrogates for that. However, that hasn't worked to her advantage so far.

[Capt. America]

12. Historically, negative ads have been successful...

Elections are not won based whether people like you, they are based on how high your negatives are. Negative ads help frame, increase, and solidify your negative qualities. We can see this when pollsters ask people about Shrub's policies without his name attached, they hate them. However, when they ask "who would you like to have a beer with", they choose him over Kerry, Hillary, etc.

This has been a consistent problem with Hillary and is why she probably would not win the general election. The number of people who absolutely WOULD NOT vote for her is about 47%.

[davsand]

13. Yeah, PLEASE go negative, Hil!

That is exactly what she needs to do if she wants to go home a loser.

Hil had high name recognition coupled with high negatives at the get-go. The rap on her was that she was a "bitch" and a "ball-buster" that would put up with and do anything for power. Her biggest challenge at the outset was to hang on to what support she had early while the other candidates were relative unknowns.

Obama may have used the ONE campaign theme Hil couldn't fight without looking like Scrooge or affirming her already present negatives--Hope. As a pure strategy it is absolutely brilliant because nobody can refute the message that together there is nothing this nation can't accomplish--unless they are willing to look like a complete misogynist. It is a catch 22 for most politicians, but especially so for anyone worried about negatives.

Obama is smart. VERY smart. Hil will be making a huge mistake to try and go directly negative in this race.



Laura

[sendero]

14. Shes damned if she does and damned if she doesn't.

.... she cannot win without major changes, but if she goes negative it will work in Obama's favor I believe.

[thevoiceofreason]

15. She already has -- look on the thread list

[rox63]

16. She's had everybody in her campaign (including Bill) going negative already

How much difference would it make if she started doing the same thing. It's sure backfired when Bill did it in SC.

[TexasObserver]

17. Go negative?! She's been negative the whole time.

It's been one slime after another, through surrogates and Bill.

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

18. unlikable candidates should always go negative

its the smart thing to do.

People have an opinion of her that isn't going to change, she needs to change opinions about Obama

[stillcool]

19. The Clinton's? Go Negative?

I wonder how she feels about the words: "I'm sorry"

Clinton Surrogate Compares Obama Ad to Nazi March
http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20080201/cm_thenation/45278988_1
Fri Feb 1, 2:23 PM ET

The Nation -- On a media conference call organized by the Hillary Clinton campaign today, Clinton surrogate Len Nichols compared an Obama health care ad to Nazis. The ad features a couple at a kitchen table, which some Clinton supporters said was reminiscent of "the famous insurance-industry-financed 'Harry and Louise' ads against the original Clinton plan," as The Politico reports, and Mr. Nichols said it "personally outraged" him.


Accusing political opponents of Nazism is an outrageous smear. Raising the specter of a Nazi march in response to a health care mailer that evokes the insurance industry is so absurd, it would be hard to take the attack seriously, were it not launched from a high profile national campaign conference call in this crucial stretch of the presidential race. And political observers know, of course, that the Clinton Campaign regularly arranges opportunities for surrogates to launch these kind of smears, which are later followed up with apologies. (See: Bob Johnson, Bill Shaheen, Bob Kerrey, and Francine Torge, to name the most recent offenders.) For his part, Nichols did not immediately return a call requesting further comment.
-------------------------
Len Nichols, Director of New America's Health Policy Program, stated, "For nearly 17 years I have worked tirelessly to reform our nation's struggling health system. Today my passion overwhelmed me. I chose an analogy that was wholly inappropriate. I am deeply sorry for any offense that my unfortunate comments may have caused. I made unfortunate comments that do not accurately reflect my bipartisan conviction, political philosophy, or most importantly, my opinions about Senator Obama and his historic campaign for the United States presidency."

Clinton adviser steps down after drug use comments
Earlier Thursday, Clinton personally apologized to rival Obama for Shaheen's remarks.
Obama accepted her apology, according to David Axelrod, the top political strategist for the Obama campaign.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/13/clinton.obama/index.html

January 6, 2008, 5:18 pm
Edwards: No Conscience in Clinton Campaign
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/edwards-no-conscience-in-clinton-campaign/
By Julie Bosman
KEENE, N.H. – John Edwards angrily took on Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton at two news conferences in a row on Sunday, saying that her campaign “doesn’t seem to have a conscience.”

COMPTON, Calif. (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton and her campaign tried to mend ties to black voters Thursday when a key supporter apologized to her chief rival, Barack Obama, for comments that hinted at Obama's drug use as a teenager. The candidate herself, meanwhile, praised the Rev. Martin Luther King and promised to assist with the rebirth of this troubled, largely black city.

Bob Johnson, the founder of Black Entertainment Television, apologized for comments he made at a Clinton campaign rally in South Carolina on Sunday that hinted at Obama's use of drugs as a teenager.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-17-johnson-apology_N.htm?csp=34

December 10, 2007
Third Clinton Volunteer Knew Of Smear E-Mail

A third volunteer for Hillary Clinton's campaign was aware of a propaganda e-mail alleging that Barack Obama is a Muslim who plans on "destroying the U.S. from the inside out."

"Let us all remain alert concerning Obama's expected presidential Candidacy," the email reads. "Please forward to everyone you know. The Muslims have said they Plan on destroying the U.S. from the inside out, what better way to start than at The highest level."

Two Clinton volunteers, Linda Olson and Judy Rose, have already been asked to resign from the campaign for their roles in forwarding the e-mail. The AP reported yesterday that Olson, a volunteer coordinator in Iowa County, sent a version of the e-mail to 11 people, including Ben Young, a regional field director for Chris Dodd's campaign. Young passed it on to the AP.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/hillary_adviser_harold_ickes_t.php

Hillary: Sorry for Any Offense Campaign (Bill) Has Caused
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FB65wJ6Rcfs

Bill Clinton Asks for a Second Chance
By Liz Halloran
Posted February 11, 2008

The morning after his wife, Hillary, was routed in three state contests by Sen. Barack Obama in their dead-heat battle for the Democratic nomination, former President Bill Clinton made his case for her before a packed Sunday service at one of the largest black churches in Washington, D.C.
But first he offered an apology of sorts for racially tinged comments he made about Obama and his candidacy that have triggered a backlash in the black community and among many other Democrats.

Clinton invoked his "worship of a God of second chances" in pronouncing himself glad to be at the Temple of Praise, which claims nearly 15,000 members. His invocation of second chances echoed comments he made early last week at black churches in California, where he campaigned for his wife before that state's Super Tuesday primary, which she won.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/02/11/bill-clinton-asks-for-a-second-chance.html

Bill Clinton To Apologize At LA Black Churches
Once again, Bill Clinton is ready to repent.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/02/bill-clinton-to-apologize_n_84573.html
On Sunday the former president is scheduled to visit black churches in South Central Los Angeles, where he's expected to offer a mea culpa to those who "dearly loved him" when he was their president, Rep. Diane Watson (D-Calif.) says.

Watson, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus who has endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), tells us she'll usher the former president to more than half a dozen churches in her district where she says he needs to "renew his relationship" with congregants who were turned off by his racially tinged comments in the days leading up to and following the South Carolina primary. (Such as when Clinton compared Sen. Barack Obama's landslide victory to Jesse Jackson's wins in 1984 and 1988.)

Source: Hillary Adviser Harold Ickes Tells Surrogates To Refer To Super-Delegates As "Automatic Delegates"
By Greg Sargent - February 12, 2008, 11:43AM

In a sign that the spin war over the significance of super-delegates is underway in earnest, Harold Ickes told assorted Hillary supporters on a private conference call yesterday that the campaign wants them to start referring to super-delegates as "automatic delegates," according to someone on the call.

The person I spoke to paraphrases Ickes, who is spearheading Hillary's super-delegate hunt, this way: "We're no longer using the phrase super delegates. It creates a wrong impression. They're called automatic delegates. Because that's what they are."

The worry appears to be that the phrase "super-delegates" implies that "they have super-powers or super influence when they don't," the source says, describing Ickes' thinking. In other words, the phrase suggests that they have greater than average clout and that they have the power to overrule the democratic process, giving it the taint of back-room power politics
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/hillary_adviser_harold_ickes_t.php