AP’s latest tally, Clinton has 1,135 total delegates and Obama has 1,106

[Dems4HowardDean]

http://www.telegram.com/article/20080211/NEWS/802110558/1116

Superdelegates courted

Democratic Party insiders may determine nominee

By Stephen Ohlemacher and Jim Kuhnhenn THE ASSOCIATED PRESS




WASHINGTON— Hillary Rodham Clinton retains her lead among suddenly critical Democratic Party insiders even as Barack H. Obama builds up his delegate margin with primary and caucus victories across the country, according to a survey by The Associated Press.

Of the 796 lawmakers, governors and party officials who are Democratic superdelegates, Clinton had 243 and Obama had 156. That edge was responsible for Clinton’s overall advantage in the pursuit of delegates to secure the party’s nomination for president. According to the AP’s latest tally, Clinton has 1,135 total delegates and Obama has 1,106, with three delegates still to be awarded from yesterday’s Democratic caucuses in Maine. A candidate must get 2,025 delegates to capture the nomination.

The numbers illustrate not only the remarkable proximity between the two candidates, but also the extraordinary influence superdelegates could wield in determining who becomes the nominee. Both campaigns are aggressively pursuing superdelegates, trumpeting their endorsements the moment they are secured.

[snooper2]

1. I'll put it this way...

If superdelegates decide this nomination, There will be some pissed of people on both sides....

:grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:

[Metric System]

5. But it's THE RULES. You must remember THE RULES. You know, the same RULES that Obama supporters

said must be followed in regards to Florida and Michigan. Or should THE RULES only be enforced when they're convenient to Obama?

[IndieLeft]

14. There are no "rules" on how to seat the supers.

They can pick whoever they want, and that is the flaw in the system. It was designed to enforce the peoples' will, and to make sure the candidate people voted for got the necessary votes; not to go behind their backs and take away their votes.

Don't spin this. This is serious.

[anamandujano]

17. Obama is persuing them. I'm willing to be that if he doesn't get

what he needs, he will then cry foul.

[MethuenProgressive]

2. Why are the Obamas so afraid of the Superdelegates?

They can be courted by both sides, you know.

[lurky]

3. If you lose in pledged delegates, but

win with superdelegates, you would be OK with that? :shrug:

As much as I support my candidate, it would make me a bit sick if he won that way.

[Clintonista2]

8. They are the RULES. Obama supporters seem to be ok with the rules when it comes to...

disenfranchising Florida/Michigan voters.

[IndieLeft]

16. Wow, Obama runs the DNC? I din't know that.

AND, most Obama supporters believe you should count florida and michigan, IF you have another primary there and allow the candidates to campaign.

[Clintonista2]

19. Where did I imply that Obama runs the DNC?

:shrug:

[LiberalFighter]

6. And except for a few instances.. IL and AR the SD's have been split in each state

[RL3AO]

4. It will be interesting if Obama wins 30-35 of the states but doesn't get he nom.

[shaniqua6392]

7. That is a possibility.

The Super Delegates carry a lot of weight. The nomination is made up of popular vote delegates from primaries and caucuses and SD's. We all have to accept that this is the system. It is not based on the popular vote or states won, per se.

[susankh4]

9. Not Really....

Cuz most of those "wins" are by mid-range margins. And delegates are allocated to both candidates.

And... big states are leaning Hillary. Doesn't mean Obama won't get some delegates ou of them... just that the take is not so grand.

This race is a long way from over!

Hillary/Barack or Barack/Hillary 2008!

[yellowcanine]

10. Actually Obama's wins have generally been by larger margins so he is getting more delegates

proportionately from losses than Hillary is. Biggest difference to this point is that Hillary has won more large states and has more super delegates - but even so, Obama is pulling ahead in pledged delegates and there are many super delegates still to declare. - And super delegates can change their minds while pledged delegates cannot - unless it goes to a second ballot. If Hillary gets below 40% in both Virginia and Maryland tomorrow her situation gets a little grim, imo, as she is unlikely to be able to hold Obama to under 40% in any of the remaining primaries and in fact could lose some of them. Momentum is a strange thing in politics - hard to predict and usually only fully apparent after the fact - but Obama appears to be building momentum based on popularity, unease about Hillary's chances in November, and name recognition.

[LiberalFighter]

15. Exactly. It seems that many Obama supporters think it should go their way completly.

If people know and understand the method concerning the delegates I'm sure they would consider it fair. At the least, fairer than the Republican method.

[LiberalFighter]

13. If the outcome was suppose to be determined by which candidate won the most states

then why is everyone fighting over delegates?

Should the states with the 10 least number of delegates WY (12-6), AK (13-5), ND (13-8), DE (15-8), VT (15-8), ID (15-8) SD (15-8), MT (16-8), HA (20-9), UT (23-6) be counted as 10 states won vs the second highest state NY (232-49) 1 state? With the 10 states combined delegate count being 231 vs New York's 281 delegates? (Delegate count is pledged vs unpledged)

There are states that have more delegates than other states with a higher population. I live in Indiana that has a population bigger than Wisconsin or Minnesota. Indiana has 84 while Wisconsin has 92 and Minnesota has 88. Without the SD's Minnesota has the same as Indiana.

See below on SD's criteria.


From the "GreenPapers".

The pledged delegate "base" allocation is determined by the jurisdiction's Presidential vote in 1996, 2000, and 2004 and the jurisdiction's electoral vote allocation. Jurisdictions beginning their process later in the cycle receive bonus delegates.

Each jurisdiction with electoral votes is assigned a number of Base (delegate) votes based on an "Allocation Factor" multiplied by 3,000 arrived at through a calculation involving the following factors:

1. State's Democratic Vote (SDV): The jurisdiction's popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the last three Presidential Elections (1996, 2000, and 2004).
2. Total Democratic Vote (TDV): The total popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the last three Presidential Elections (1996, 2000, and 2004).
3. The state's Electoral Vote (SEV).
4. The total Electoral Vote of all jurisdictions (538).


Bonus Allocation

Bonus delegates are awarded to states holding their First Determining Step (start their delegate allocation process) later in the cycle. The bonus is awarded as a percentage of the base allocation of pledged delegates and applies to the district and at-large delegates.

Unpledged or Super Delegates

Consist of Democratic Governors, Senators, Representatives, former Presidents and VP's, former Senate and House leaders, former DNC chairs, and DNC members.

ANOTHER WAY USING YOUR 30-35

Based on the 53 entities not including Florida and Michigan
Top 15 - 2270
Bot 35 - 1208

Top 20 - 2270
Bot 30 - 894

The top 50 the breakdown is as follows:
Top 20 - 2623
Bot 30 - 1055

Top 15 - 2270
Bot 35 - 1408

[anamandujano]

18. States where the caucus brought in a tiny percentage of the voters?

I don't think it will be any more interesting than Obama and his gang of cry babies decide to make it.

You guys argue that the rules need to be followed regarding Michigan and Floria, where many more people expressed their opinion.

[Lucinda]

11. CNN has her ahead also Clinton 1148 - Obama 1121

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

[Coexist]

12. realclearpolitics: obama 1143 clinton 1138

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/delegate_counts.html

Total - - obama 1143
clinton 1138

this is my favorite site for a lot of facts