Excellent article on "What's next" Primary streatgy-wise

[Perky]

Dems plot strategy for protracted battle

By: Ben Smith
Feb 5, 2008 06:53 AM EST



It’s already too late to book a room at the Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Hilton in mid-April, but there are still hotel rooms in downtown San Juan in early June.

Aides to the two Democrats running for president spent much of Monday talking not about Super Tuesday – today – but rather about Wednesday and beyond, as the prospect of an unprecedented long primary began to crystallize outside the cluttered offices of the field organizers, campaign managers, and delegate counters.

So it’s time to contemplate the Potomac Primary, Super Tuesday II, and – to the delight of junkies, and the horror of burnt-out staffers – the Pennsylvania Scenario.

If neither Senator Barack Obama nor Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton delivers an unexpected sweep today, winning the day by a margin of hundreds of delegates, the campaigns are making plans to fight on.

“Many of us will be making our reservations for Texas and Ohio and perhaps Pennsylvania and beyond that," said Clinton’s communications director, Howard Wolfson, who said the race is "likely to be close and inconclusive due to the proportional allocation of delegates under the Democratic Party’s rules.”


The Democratic Party’s rules divide delegates among candidates according to their results in districts around each state and in each state as a whole, a system that has the effect of leveling out differences in the popular vote and making it harder for either candidate to run away with a victory.

Analysts think it likely that the race will be resolved within the month, as one candidate or the other amasses unstoppable momentum. But the possibility that the race could go even longer – possibly much longer – remains distinct.

Obama’s supporters are hoping for a dramatic upset in one of the big states – California or New Jersey – today, but aides say he expects to survive a narrow loss, and soldier on.

“Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests,” wrote campaign manager David Plouffe in a “memo” to reporters.

Conventional wisdom holds that a tie favors Obama. The first round of votes after Super Tuesday comes Saturday, February 9, when two states – Washington and Nebraska – caucus, while Louisiana and the U.S. Virgin Islands stage primaries. Clinton’s campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, said yesterday that caucuses favor Obama, whose campaign has been shaped by grassroots enthusiasm and expensive organization. However, Clinton’s victory in the Nevada caucuses demonstrated the value of her support among regular Democratic organizations.

The other factor in the post-Super Tuesday weeks is race. With Obama winning 78 percent of African American votes in South Carolina, he will be hard to beat in heavily black states.

African-Americans made up 46 percent of the voters in the 2004 Louisiana Primary, according to CNN exit polls. And they could prove crucial to Obama’s strength in the next major test, what’s being called the Potomac Primary, on February 12.

[Perky]

1. kicking for numerous edirs