More # crunching with the latest Zogby CA Poll

[The Delegates]

If, hypothetically, all of RCPs averages are correct except for California (and the Zogby poll nailed California)...

Obama would have a 655-599 delegate lead after those 11 states (this includes NY and NJ)

If all of the Zogby polls are correct, Obama will have a 371-284 delegate lead (zogby only has polls in CA, GA, MO, and NJ from waht I could find).

If the Survey USA polls are correct in those states (theres actually only a 3 state overlap because I can't find a SurveyUSA GA poll), Clinton would lead 339-295.

[NJSecularist]

1. Are you aware of the odd California proportional delegate allotment formula?

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/2/212343/0037

The distribution of delegates isn't by popular vote, it's by a combination of delegates per district and the difference in the final popular vote...

[The Delegates]

2. Tough to factor that into my excel spreadsheet

Heh

[NJSecularist]

3. Yeah, true

:)

But your formula gives a rough idea what one should expect.

In fact, most of the states go by a congressional district delegate allotment system, not the popular vote.

Which is why it is important for candidates to meet the 40% threshold.

[caligirl]

4. In California we have bonus delegates for reaching a higher threshold. Do you know anything

about this.? David Shuster tried to explain it. :shrug:

[NJSecularist]

5. I believe over 60% in certain districts and you get a bonus delegate