bonddad: Obama Gets HUGE Endorsement: Paul Volcker

[Coexist]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/3/182058/4630/408/449116

"After 30 years in government, serving under five Presidents of both parties and chairing two non-partisan commissions on the Public Service, I have been reluctant to engage in political campaigns. The time has come to overcome that reluctance," Mr. Volcker said in a statement today. "However, it is not the current turmoil in markets or the economic uncertainties that have impelled my decision. Rather, it is the breadth and depth of challenges that face our nation at home and abroad. Those challenges demand a new leadership and a fresh approach."

That was from from Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve. Here's a little history. Volcker's actions in the early 1980s are the primary reason the country didn't fall into a period of rapidly escalating inflation in the early 1980s. His solution wasn't exactly popular. He jacked-up interest rates to massively high levels. Here's a chart of the effective Federal funds rate from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.



The high points are Volckers doing. His actions are a primary reason the US experienced a double-dip recession in the early 1980s.

However, his actions killed inflation. Here's a chart of inflation from the St. Louis Fed.



Notice how inflation died after the interest rate hikes of the early 1980s. In other words, Volcker's actions were successful. And that's a really good thing because no one wants to live through massive inflation.

In addition, Volcker is one of the few economists who has correctly diagnosed the the central problem of the US economy. On April 10, 2005, Volcker wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post titled, An Economy on Thin Ice. Here is the central issue:

The difficulty is that this seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely. I don't know of any country that has managed to consume and invest 6 percent more than it produces for long. The United States is absorbing about 80 percent of the net flow of international capital. And at some point, both central banks and private institutions will have their fill of dollars.

I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.

The point of all this is simple: Volcker has "been there and done that" in more ways then one. He is an accomplished economist with solid practical real-world experience.

This is an endorsement that carries a great deal of weight with the economic crowd.

Update <2008-2-3 19:5:31 by bonddad>:: I didn't mention anything about what I hope this means. Ideally, my hope is this means Obama will put together a top-notch economic team. If Volcker is on that team, all the better.

[blindpig]

1. Newsflash!

Top-tier capitalist endores one of the darlings of the corporations!

Change! Hope! Can't ya smell it?

[chascarrillo]

2. Krugman on Volcker

"(Alan Greenspan) had the good fortune to follow an illustrious predecessor. Paul Volcker assumed office at a time of double-digit inflation. During Volcker's eight years as Fed chairman, he tamed inflation and steered the world through a major financial crisis, then oversaw a powerful economic recovery. On becoming chairman in August 1987, Greenspan inherited both a healthy economy and an office whose prestige had never been higher."

- Paul Krugman, "The Maestro Slips Out Of Tune", NYT, June 6, 2004

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E03E1DA1431F935A35755C0A9629C8B63&sec=&spon=&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

[NoBorders]

3. Good find on that Krugman quote. n/t

[Coexist]

4. in case you are interested:

Paul Volcker was appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker

Economist Paul Volcker says steps to curb global warming would not devastate an economy.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/02/06/news/FIN-GEN-Egypt-Volcker-Global-Warming.php

An Economy On Thin Ice
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38725-2005Apr8.html

Paul Volcker Interview
http://www.pbs.org/fmc/interviews/volcker.htm

[blindpig]

5. Um...

From the Wiki article:

Paul Volcker was appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter and reappointed in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan. <2> Volcker's Fed is widely credited with ending the United States' stagflation crisis of the 1970s by limiting the growth of the money supply, abandoning the previous policy of targeting interest rates. Inflation, which peaked at 13.5% in 1981, was successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983. <1> The change in policy contributed to the significant recession the U.S. economy experienced in the early 1980s, which included the highest unemployment levels since the Great Depression.



So what part of "the highest unemployment since the Great Depression" do you find desirable?
Contrary to Volker's spin, inflation is feared most by bankers, his preferrence for putting people out of work says it all.

Some endorsement.

[Barack_America]

6. I read about this endorsement last week, but didn't appreciate its significance.

Thanks for posting.