MYDD Prediction: Clinton will win CA by only 25-30 delegates

[NJSecularist]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/2/212343/0037

It's a very interesting system that California uses, which doesn't give many advantages to the front-runner.



California will send 441 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. 370 will be determined by the primary election on Tuesday, of which 241 will be determined at the Congressional District Level. As we saw in Nevada, whether a district has an even or odd number of delegates will count a lot towards whether the popular vote winner there actually will get a delegate advantage.

There are 53 Congressional Districts in California. 21 will send an odd number of delegates to the national convention - 2 CDs with 3 delegates and 19 with 5. Any delegate who carries any of these CDs will automatically get a 1-delegate advantage. However, it will be extremely difficult for either candidate to win by a sufficiently large amount to gain a 3-delegate advantage over the other.

The other 32 congressional districts all have an even number of delegates. Unless whoever wins that district does so by a near landslide, whoever wins the district will not win an advantage in the number of delegates. Of these 32 districts, six will send 6 delegates to the national convention and the rest will send 4.


.....

So in summary, the congressional-district delegate breakdown should favor Hillary, but not overwhelmingly; about +15 for the 241 delegates at stake. She'll also win a majority of the statewide at-large delegates to go about +25 or +30 for the state as a whole.

On the webpage, they have a breakdown of the Congressional Districts.

[Joe the Revelator]

1. This proportional delegate stuff is kind of a mess

I mean, I like it because it benefits Obama, but I don't think we should use it again in '12.

[NJSecularist]

3. Agreed

Maybe we should go to winner take all like the Repugs.

[Coexist]

7. I respectfully disagree - winner take does not seem fair to me

I like that the pulse of a state is really taken by it.

Usually it doesn't matter, the nom is sewn up by Super Tuesday.

I love that this is such a compelling primary.

[NJSecularist]

2. This state might not be as big a coup for Hillary as originally thought.

[papau]

4. May not be that large given a 15% Obama result splits delegates despite Hillary 85%

in any given congressional district - if I understand the rules correctly.

California with 53 congressional districts, three delegates in each, also gives the winner of the statewide vote an additional bonus of 11 delegates. A Democratic candidate who gains 15 percent of the popular vote in a congressional district generally is guaranteed at least one delegate.

[NJSecularist]

5. Is that referring to the at-large delegates?

[papau]

6. the allocation in each congressional district in CA of 3 delagates is always 2 to 1

the 11 at large go to the winner of the statewide popular vote as I understand it.

[NJSecularist]

8. I see. Anyways, I found out how the 129 at-large delegates are allocated

up to 51.0 65-64
51.1-51.2 66-63
51.3-52.4 67-62
52.4-53.1 68-61
53.1-53.7 69-60
53.8-54.9 70-59
55.0-55.2 71-58
55.3-56.1 72-57
56.2-57.2 73-56
57.3-57.4 74-55
57.5-58.6 75-54

The first column is how much % of the popular vote the winner gets, the second column is how many at-large delegates the winner and the loser get.

So even if Hillary defeats Obama by a double digit margin, she still won't gain much of a delegate difference.

[LordJFT]

9. less

[CreekDog]

10. Proportional awards are making both of our candidates stronger

by making them test their messages, strategies, adjust and also giving voters more exposure to them before the deal is sealed.

i am relieved that this process is taking its time. i was very concerned that it would all be decided in Iowa because I'd barely seen Obama by then and in fact since then by seeing so much of him, I ended up switching to him.