A "HOLY CRAP" reminder about how Delegate Distribution works

[Perky]

EVERYONE should keep this in mind before overly prognosticating future results five John Edwards withdrawal from the race,

The rules for apportionment of Delegates are based on percentage of vote at the Congressional District level


1. If you do not get 15% in CD you get nothing (both candidate will meet this threshold each and every time)
2. If you get more than 59% you get bonus Delegates. (my suspicion is that Obama has a leg up here in Urban areas and as evidenced by SC areas of the deep south)
3. If two candidates get over 40% they split the delegates evenly (This is going to happen nearly all the time)
4. If you get between 15% and 40% you get a pro-rata portion (see 2. above)

In a schema like this it seems inevitable that we are going to wind up nearly tied on voted Delegates and the real battle to decide the nomination is going to come down to Four things:

A. Super Delegates
B. The seating of the Michigan Delegation
C. The seating of the Florida Delegation
D. The Edwards and Richardson Delegates


Unless someone falters badly, or if Al Gore chimes in.....That is what it is going to come down to.

Here is a link to the best data I have found on delegates per state

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

[jlake]

1. Very interesting. Is it the same for every state?

Do we have any winner take all states?

[Perky]

2. All the states are proportioned this way.

[NJSecularist]

3. There are no-winner-take-all states

However, the 15% threshold only applies in certain states (the vast majority, though).

[Perky]

5. yes...but that is now a non-issue don't you think?

[NJSecularist]

11. Yup.

But it was a very important issue before Edwards dropped out.

[Perky]

51. .

[MNDemNY]

4. None.

[Perky]

46. Apparently WA does not have the 15% threshhold...but that is not going to matter

given that there are only two candidates

[thesubstanceofdreams]

6. Some districts have an odd number of delegates

In those, even winning by 1% will make a difference.

[Perky]

14. Well yes,,, but I suspect that over the course of the remaining states that 's going to be a wash

[rinsd]

7. How many delegates (minus supers) would have come from FL & MI?

150 maybe?

With 3000 delegates yet to be voted on, I doubt that will be the margin.

Super delegates are a different story since their vote carries more weight anyway.

[Debi]

15. A super delegate equals one delegate - they are just flexible in where they go

and aren't 'pledged' to any candidate - even if they've endorsed they can 'unendorse' and go elsewhere.

[rinsd]

19. I misunderstood. I thought their vote was weighted more.

Thanks for the info Debi.

[Reciprocity]

26. In other words you can win the popular vote and still lose the race.

Yeah this is what democracy looks like. Been there done that.

[Perky]

31. And it may come down to Florida again.

yoikes

[Debi]

38. Or you can just have the folks in Los Angeles, Chicago, New York and Huston

vote b/c they are the largest population centers in America and who gives a damn about proportional representation anyway? At least w/the super delegates and the electoral college smaller states get a vote.

[Perky]

40. I view this as 435 seperate elections

What I do not know is whether or not each CD has a differebt allocation within a state or if they are all equal.

[Debi]

41. I'm confused

What do you mean?

[Perky]

43. ok Example Iowa

45 Pledged 12 unpledged for a total of 57

I understand that the 45 pledged include 6 Super Delegates and 10 at large.


That leaves 29 district level delegates. but there are five congressional districts. But that means what 4 have six and one has five delegates. How do the state delegates break out across the state's CDs? Is that up to the individual state?

[Perky]

45. The green pages data at the state level seems to give the allocation

They are different per district and I suspect that relates back to how each District went in the precious election cycle.


There are both odd and even number but looking at the iow data it appears the methodology is to round up or round down.

So going back to my orginal post it would seem as though they split the district if both get over 40% and the spare odd delegate woud go to the one with the most votes.

That will flip back and forth by CD so I suspect it would be a wash over the the course of all the primaries.

[Perky]

44. ok Example Iowa

45 Pledged 12 unpledged for a total of 57

I understand that the 45 pledged include 6 Super Delegates and 10 at large.


That leaves 29 district level delegates. but there are five congressional districts. But that means what 4 have six and one has five delegates. How do the state delegates break out across the state's CDs? Is that up to the individual state?

[Perky]

52. dupe

[RL3AO]

8. I think Clinton is going to win more states, but will not got a huge lead in terms of delegates.

[neutron]

54. Clinton could end up the New Al Gore

that would sure get McCain elected.

[Sulawesi]

9. K&R, Important post, nt

[Perky]

39. Thank you

[Debi]

10. But....come Denver, doesn't majority rule?

Isnt' it whoever has the most delegates going in to the national convention will be the candidate with the power to control the convention (ie, seating or not seating delegates ?)

[Perky]

17. Yes...so thus it may actually simply come down to Super Delegates.

[JackORoses]

18. no, the nominee has to have 2025

anything less and the convention is brokered

[Debi]

20. I understand it comes down to 2025 to become the nominee

but will the Party be swayed by the wishes of the holder of the majority of the delegates when it comes to seating MI & FL. Won't that have something to do with it?

[JackORoses]

27. If someone gets to 2025 without MI and FL, yes, they will seat them

but they won't be counted towards that 2025

[Perky]

28. Well think about that

the 2025 assumes that the FL and MI delegation have voting rights.

That means it total delegates less thos two delegation + 1 for a new majority,

so if Obama has whatever the new majority needs to be. He would not want those two delegations seated.


That is going to be a war....

[joshcryer]

48. Once seated, they count.

[Perky]

50. and until they are seated, they do not count.

[Perky]

30. Where does the 2025 come from?

that would seem to suggest that there are 4049 delegates in total.

[Debi]

32. Yep

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D.phtml

4,049 total delegate votes

The breakdown of the delegate votes is as follows:

2,838 Base delegate votes (2,111 district delegate votes and 727 at-large delegate votes)
415 Pledged PLEOs (meaning a total of 3,253 delegate votes to be determined by either a primary or a caucus/convention system in each state or other jurisdiction)
796 Unpledged delegate votes (720 Unpledged PLEOs and 76 Unpledged "add-on"s)
TOTAL: 4,049 delegate votes.

[Perky]

33. I have been using the wikipedia data.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

It is definitiely different

we may need a tiebreaker source.

But here is the thing...The numbers change if the two delegations are not seated.

[Debi]

34. Are they different?

They both end up with 4,049. :shrug:

Will the count be off by 367? or by the 'pledged' delegates (313)? Where is the DNC on seating Super Delegates? (If I were the DNC I'd consider seating the pledged delegates and sending the super delegates to their room for being so disruptive...but that's just me....)

[Benhurst]

12. What a mess. It's even worse than the Electoral College.

It couldn't be more anti-democratic. So much for Vox populi.

The World's Greatest Superpower. What a joke!

[Nimrod2005]

13. Edwards delegates too...

[Perky]

21. You're right.....I amended the OP. I think Richardson has a couple form Iowa as well

[thereismore]

16. Looks like the dem establishment pretty much rigged the primary process for

themselves. They decide by means of super delegates. We are just suckers, and the candidates are wasting all that campaign money. What a friggin waste.

[Debi]

22. why would you say that? Super delegates can only add to the total

of whoever they choose to support. The only difference between a Super Delegate and a regular delegate is that they are free to move from one candidate to another up to the time of the convention.

[thereismore]

35. because we don't determine who the superdelegates vote for. The elected

delegates are a wash, pretty much, so the superdelegates will decide who the nominee is. The superdelegates are all establishment - former and present governors, senators, etc.

[Debi]

36. That doesn't make them 'establishment'

As soon as a person becomes an elected official they become 'establishment'? How does that work? And super delegates are also the party chair/vice-chair and DNC members. Are they also the 'establishment'? C'mon.

[thereismore]

53. Yes, I think that's a definition of the establishment. nt

[napi21]

23. Where can I find a list of delegates by State? I've tried several

times through Google and never found one.

[Perky]

24. WIKIPEDIA HAS SOME NICE EASY TO READ TABLES.

[Perky]

25. Here is the linkt o the best data tables I have found

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

[napi21]

29. THANKS! n/t

[Debi]

37. Here's another one (not that there is anything wrong with wiki)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D.phtml

This link will also link you to the delegate selection process in each state (and even the GOP contests if you are so inclined).

[pat_k]

42. The "math" could change overnight if Edwards. . . .

. . . http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4296135&mesg_id=4296135">got back in the race as a champion for impeachment

If he had the moral clarity and the guts to do it, I wouldn't be surprised to see Clinton and Obama lose 5-10% to him by the 5th.

Just imagine it. The pund-idiots would be flabbergasted. It would be non-stop "Edwards; Edwards; Edwards" "What is he doing?" "Is nuts? Reversing himself in a day?" . . . and all the while they'd be citing his REASON -- his realization that, whoever wins the nomination; whoever wins the Presidency; failure to confront the truth and say "No!" to torture will continue to drag us down; his conclusion that impeachment is a moral imperative and that continuing his campaign is the best way to champion the cause. . .

He would have them sputtering, heads spinning.

If only. . .

[joshcryer]

47. If it comes down to seating FL and MI (a 50-60 point spread) then, I'm sorry, neither candidate wins

And we go into a brokered convention.

[Perky]

49. I made the observation that if they are not seated then the

majority is set that much lower as though they do not exist.e
Since there are only two candidates then it stands to reason that on would have to have 50+1


The nightmare scenario is if Obama is two or threevotes short of anout-n-out majority and Hillary can win if Michigan and Florida are seated.

Maybe Scotus will be involved....LOL