Prediction: Super Tuesday will not decide our candidate. March 4 will. What say you?

[SteppingRazor]

(March 4 primaries include Texas, Ohio, Vermont and R.I -- a total of 444 delegates)

[thereismore]

1. Maybe even then - who knows what the super delegates will do. nt

[tekisui]

2. Super Tuesday will assuredly not decide.

By March 4th 81+% will have been pledged.

I hope we know then. If we don't by then, I don't think we will until the Convention.

[Radical Activist]

3. Feb 9 or 12 might do it.

If somebody wins all but three or four states on 2/5 then that will be the presumptive nominee. Anything close to an even split and you're probably right that Feb 5 won't decide it. But there are enough states left on Feb 9 and 12 that it will probably be decided before March.

[SteppingRazor]

4. But given that there's not a single winner-take-all primary on the Democratic side...

do those wins matter as much? If all the races are extremely close, then won't the delegate count remain low on both sides?

[Radical Activist]

6. It isn't just about delegate count.

Its about the perception that someone knows they aren't going to win the nomination so they had better drop out for the good of the party. I know there's a lot of talk about this being a race for delegates, but it isn't.

If one candidate can say "I won all but four of the 2/5 states" that will be as important or more important than who wins the most delegates. In fact that could happen if Hillary gets a lot of delegates out of New York and CA but then loses a majority of the other states. The delegate winner and the winner of the most state primaries could be two different people. That wouldn't surprise me at all.

[Benhurst]

5. I'll be waiting with bated breath.

:boring:

[SPKrazy]

7. who cares

either way

it sucks

[SteppingRazor]

8. I sense the presence of an Edwards supporter.

;)


Seriously, though, you've got my sympathies. I just figured that maybe it would be nice to have a discussion that didn't center on Edwards dropping out or to whom his supporters will now flock.

[Debi]

9. I say February 9th

but who knows anymore :shrug:

[goodhue]

10. I think it will be decided when Obama wins Wisconsin on February 19th

[rinsd]

11. Not likely. If one candidate wins say 20 out of 24 states, delegate count will not matter

It will be about momentum.

And between 2/9 & 2/12 another 428 delegates are up for grabs.

[VolcanoJen]

12. Well, I'm in Ohio.

The most conservative part of Ohio, too, Cincinnati.

And I'll be working my ass off for OBAMA!!!!!!

By the way... the ads have started trickling on to local TV. So far, I've seen a bunch for Huckabee and a bunch for Obama.. but nobody else. Strange.

[CoffeeCat]

13. This might have been true before today.....

...but not now, with Edwards being out of the race.

I am guessing (and obviously I could be totally off the mark)
that Edwards will endorse one of the Dem candidates in the mother
of all endorsement events.

Edwards and this candidate will stand together, in a major event--much
like the Kennedy endorsement.

Edwards will make it clear to his supporters that his agenda will live on
through this candidate.

This candidate will step forward to give Edwards supporters (and the rest
of the country) obvious and very public assurances that Edwards will play
a key role in their administration.

The buzz will be all about Edwards being a vp.

Edwards has all of the power right now... His endorsement--if it indeed
comes before Super Tuesday--will propel that candidate over the top and
secure him/her the nomination.

There's a reason Edwards did all of this before Super Tuesday. He knows
what's at stake. He knows that he has leverage right now--going into
Super Tuesday, that he won't have after Super Tuesday is decided.

[Radical Activist]

15. He did that last time.

But he may not want the VP slot this time. If he doesn't want it then he might not make an endorsement until there's a clear nominee. :shrug:

[CoffeeCat]

16. I know...I know...

...but why do this before Super Tuesday, when you've been saying all along
that you're in it until the end.

I'm just speculating, but I am guessing that he wants to make a big impact
before Super Tuesday, and he wants to use his endorsement as leverage, while
he still has it.

If there is a clear front runner after Super Tuesday, Edwards' endorsement
after Super Tuesday wouldn't carry as much weight.

Right now, his endorsement is pure gold. Edwards can use the power
he has now to ensure that he is an important part of the next
administration.

I can't imagine that he wouldn't want the vp slot. The second in charge, to
the leader of the free world...not a bad gig.

I know...we're all guessing at this point. It's maddening!

[Radical Activist]

17. I would also guess

that taking the VP slot is his last chance for elected office. He won't be taken seriously if he runs for President a third time. I also have a hard time seeing him running for Governor or Senate back in NC again. He moved pretty far left since he was elected there before. Where else does he go from here?

[Little Star]

14. I have no clue.

[Renew Deal]

18. Classical Super Tuesday

That's the old Super Tuesday. I think you might be correct. And Obama should unleash his ground game on those states.