Obama damaged by Edwards withdrawal? - TPM race analysis

[bidenista]

A blog I read linked to the TPM discussion of Edwards' withdrawal, and one of the posts makes an interesting argument:

On January 30, 2008 - 10:17am, FlyOnTheWall said:

It doesn't matter where his supporters go, it still hurts Obama.

By withdrawing from the race, Edwards changes the dynamic in Congressional Districts with odd numbers of delegates. It used to be that just about wherever he cracked 15%, Hillary and Obama would split the same number of delegates (1-1, 2-2, etc.) and Edwards would walk away with a single delegate. Now, in an odd numbered district, the winner will always take more delegates.

So do the math. Edwards is most likely to crack 15% in heavily-white, largely poor areas. Who gains a delegate there? He was least likely to draw threshold support in heavily-black areas. So who does his withdrawal fail to benefit?

I wish it were otherwise. But the bottom line is that 15% of the vote for Edwards almost always helped Obama more than adding that same 15% of the vote to his own tally.

http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2008/jan/30/edwards_dropping_out_discussion#comment-332989

[GodlessBiker]

1. So many ways to look at it. The anti-Hillary vote can now coalesce around one candidate.

[Stand and Fight]

3. As can the pro-Hillary vote. n/t

[GodlessBiker]

6. Indeed.

[razorman]

2. I think much depends on who Edwards endorses.

Right now, I think he is holding back on his endorsement, in order to leverage whatever he can from HRC and Obama. They may wind up promising him the VP slot, or perhaps Attorney General. It's a smart move on his part, if he does not let it carry on too long.

[Egnever]

5. If he is going to use his leverage the time is today.

If he doesnt I will assume this was done to help Hillary.

[Egnever]

4. This goes along the lines i am thinking.

I think he hurts Clinton in the demographics she does best in while not having as large of an effect on Obama.

The statement today that it was all about delegates leads me to believe he is droping out to help Hillary. If that turns out to be the case all of my previous doubts about his sincerity will be confirmed.

I hope I am wrong but I dont think I am.

I dont think he even has to endorse really for his droping out to have the effect of boosting Hillary.

[ProSense]

7. That's not TPM Race Analysis, that's a comment from a poster. n/t

[bidenista]

8. someone on TPM giving race analysis

I indicated in the OP that it's part of the discussion.

[ProSense]

10. Your title says TPM race analysis n/t

[bidenista]

11. sorry

I'll be sure to run possible thread titles past you in future.

:eyes:

[BeyondGeography]

9. Hurts Obama in the South, helps him on the coasts

Places like Ohio and Texas...who knows? On a contest-by-contest basis, I see it as a net positive for Obama since he can afford to lose a little bit in the South.

If Edwards comes on board with an endorsement, there's no doubt it's a net positive.