Obama leads Clinton by 3% in CA

[kid a]

From the SF Chronicle:

On the Democratic side, the combined results of three nightly samplings of 400 different voters - for Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday - found Hillary Rodham Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 31 percent and John Edwards at 12 percent.

But when taken alone, Sunday's tracking - just a day after Obama's big win in the South Carolina primary - had Obama leading Clinton, 35 percent to 32 percent, with Edwards' share growing to 16 percent. And pretty much the same numbers came up Monday.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/30/BAVUUO9E4.DTL

[Occam Bandage]

1. Holy shit. There's a huge MOE in one day's polling, but still.

[BenDavid]

32. 400 people in a state with millions....wrong type of sampling...

Clinton led the Democratic field with 49 percent to 32 percent for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and 11 percent for former senator John Edwards (N.C.). The gross numbers show little change from the poll two weeks earlier but with choices more firmly held.

Posted at 9:38 PM ET on Jan 30, 2008
Washington Post

or an average clinton 45 obama 33

[TwilightGardener]

2. Wow!

[Colobo]

3. GOBAMAAAAAAAAA!!!

[otohara]

Awesome News

He's speaking in a few minutes in CO - he leads here too.

[Seen the light]

4. HOLY SHIT!

Bwahahahaha at all the people thinking Clinton was just going to take all these states on Tuesday. She'll win a few Northeast states and Arkansas and that will be it.

Seriously, this thread just made my day. Thank you.

[dmallind]

9. Be careful about enumerating the poultry

I'd wait a few more days and let that average out. I make no predictiuon, and have no dog in this fight yet, but one day in a tracking poll is just that.

[cali]

5. i'm cautiously hopeful that Obama will do well in CA.

thanks for posting this.

[zulchzulu]

6. I have great faith in Californians

This is proof. Having lived there (once a Cali, always a Cali), I knew the polls had to be WAY off.

[papau]

7. So will Florida change that result? - don't have long to wait :-)

[NJSecularist]

8. What's that sound I just heard for Hillary's headquarters?

Must have been a shriek. :)

[book_worm]

10. It's too early to tell, but I think CA will definitely be a battleground and in play for Obama.

[TwilightGardener]

11. He seriously, seriously needs to get out to CA and do some mega-campaigning/media buys there.

[VolcanoJen]

26. Remember, during that press avail from the campaign plane...

... the night of his South Carolina victory, Obama hinted to the media that Oprah Winfrey might be coming out to California to campaign with him.

You couldn't buy more starpower or good press!!!!!

[cooolandrew]

12. WTG Cali.=) I knew I loved that state.

[Meldread]

13. So this doesn't factor in...

...the Kennedy endorsement which is HUGE. He could gain maybe 5% more with that, and now that Edwards is unfortunately leaving the race, we also do not know the effects of that. It could swing even larger to Obama.

[1776Forever]

14. Yes - Wake up CA - Obama is the way to go! - Time for a change!!!!

We sure as H don't need more Bush Corporatists!!!!!!!!!!:applause:

[TheDeathadder]

15. Plenty of Polls show Clinton ahead

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/california-primary.html

We'll just have to let Feb 5th decide.

[Clarkansas]

16. Good news. eom

[THUNDER HANDS]

17. that's still about a third undecided

and not factoring in those who already voted.

[BeyondGeography]

18. Game on in the Golden State

Helllo.

[cd3dem]

19. Democratic absentees were going to Clinton over Obama 53 percent to 30 percent.

Among those who plan to vote in person, her lead was eight points.

Posted at 9:38 PM ET on Jan 28, 2008

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/28/mccain_clinton_leading_califor.html

-- A Los Angeles Times/CNN/Politico poll of likely California voters released this week found New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leading her top Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 49 percent to 32 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was third with 11 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN2943984420080130

Clinton, the former first lady, meanwhile held a 49 percent to 32 percent lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama among Democrats.

Agence France-Presse
First Posted 05:23:00 01/30/2008

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20080130-115682/McCain-Clinton-open-up-big-leads-in-California----poll

[VolcanoJen]

28. I'm reasonably certain those polls you cite...

... were sampled before Obama's landslide victory in South Carolina, and certainly before the blockbuster endorsements from Caroline and Ted Kennedy.

This race is so volatile, that from news cycle to news cycle these polls can really move.

More importantly though... polling has been just pathetic this election season. That's mostly due to the unexpectedly huge influx of non-polled and non-predictable first-time voters. I find it to be quite thrilling... and anybody who is watching the polls whether they be good or bad for your candidate should probably just take a deep breath and wait until the votes are counted.

[cd3dem]

20. Four out of 10 Republicans said they could switch allegiances to help choose the party's candidates

"Four out of 10 Republicans also said they could switch allegiances before the February 5 vote to help choose the party's candidates for the November presidential elections."

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20080130-115682/McCain-Clinton-open-up-big-leads-in-California----poll

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Obama will lose California by 6%

At least.

[cali]

22. It's really about picking up delegates

You understand that he could lose by 6% and still pick up roughly the same number of delegates, right?

[alcibiades_mystery]

25. Sure, I understand that

[Bitwit1234]

23. Boy -------this spin ------- will reach the moon its so stupid

Anybody with SENSE AND CAN READ....will see in every legimate poll Hillary has a double digit lead over the other candidate. Where did this paper come from some kiddy group.

[Omega3]

24. thank you

[suston96]

27. Bullshit thread title - 3% is one day in a three day tracking poll which Hillary leads by 6%...nt.

[suston96]

29. And also, go here.....and scroll down to RCP history of national averages.

http://electionlawblog.org/archives/001864.html

You will see that Gallup has only done two polls in the recent past. One of them had Obama and Hillary tied nationally 33-33. The others have averaged just 10 points between Obama and Clinton for several weeks now.

Also note that RCP hasn't updated for quite a few days - one week maybe. Must be the volatile polling. Good for them.

[demo dutch]

30. Here are all the latest polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html#polls

[Nimrod2005]

31. I told you so....Senator Kennedy has not even made it there yet!!!!

[Tom Rinaldo]

33. "Sunday's tracking - just a day after Obama's big win in the South Carolina primary"

That was the last day in this tracking poll, and that was the only day where Obama led Clinton in California.

Speaking of Polls. This reminds me of a OP I made last night:

Meaningless From Now On: Gallop, Zogby,Rasmussen, ARG, Quinnipiac, Pew, Marist...

In fact all opinion polls mean nothing and are unworthy of our consideration. NONE of them, not a single god damned one of them, award a single campaign delegate, so what good are they?

If a new poll comes out with a 500 likely voter sample from Connecticut showing Obama closing the gap with Clinton there, why bother mentioning it? Unless actual delegates are awarded based on that poll, there is nothing of any value to be learned from it.

Same thing with the Florida Primary. 1.6 Million Democrats who have nothing better to do than vote in an election that will not award convention delegates. Pathetic. Why encourage that nonsense by giving it attention? Florida voters are ALWAYS demanding that we pay attention to their meaningless votes. Look at the crap they pulled in 2000. They made the whole F'ing nation sit and watch them count "hanging chads" for weeks and NONE of it mattered! Did the actual winner get a single electoral vote out of it? No! Nada! Nothing!

Haven't we learned anything? Stop paying attention when millions of Floridians vote. We all know that Florida elections don't mean anything.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4284290&mesg_id=4284290