To win the general election the Democratic nominee must

[featherman]

1. Hold together the Blue State base which is New England, the Mid Atlantic, the Upper Midwest, and the Pacific Coast
(see http://grayraven.com/ec/ for a EV calculator if it helps)

---- this means holding some very close states that Kerry barely won (3% or less): PA, MI, WI, NH
---- adding/getting back Iowa which voted for Gore but Kerry lost by 1%

These states give the Dems a larger base than the GOP in terms of Electoral Votes but not enough to win

2. So the Dem candidate must be capable of pulling enough EV's from this list of toss up states that Bush swept in 2004:

Ohio - the most important of these. This state alone would do it. The Republican brand name is damaged in OH and for the first time is several cycles, the governor and the state apparatus (including the voting oversight by Sec of State) is in the hands of the Dems. That's good. My sources tell me that McCain would run well here with the INDs and may make this tougher for us than, say, Romney. Obama likely runs stronger than Clinton according to my sources.

Florida - after the debacle of 2000 and Kerry's weakness in the state, many DEM's have a bad feeling about our chances of recapturing FL. The state apparatus is GOP again. Strong military vote in FL from both retirees and active that list FL as their "home state" while oversees for tax purposes. The north and panhandle are strongly Evangelical. Of the population centers the SE is DEM but Tampa Bay and J'ville areas are split, and Orlando is slightly GOP. Hard to call but edge to McCain and on our side Clinton runs stronger that Obama.

Southwest States AZ, NV, NM, CO: this area has been trending DEM and NM is almost a Blue State (barely Gore, barely Bush in '04) McCain takes AZ out for us once again and Romney would likely keep NV GOP. CO and NM are good chances for DEM pickups this year though. At this point Clinton might run better than Obama in these states with a better showing in Hispanic populations. Lots of INDs that need to go DEM here though and Obama may be stronger there. Toss up.

Lower Midwest MO and ARK: Clinton is the only candidate who likely puts ARK back into play. MO will be a typical toss up state once more. I'd like to say it could be in play for the Dems with Obama but can't be sure at this point. I don't know if either could run strong enough in MO. It has been trending red more than I would have thought 8 years ago.

VA and WVA: Dems used to count on a solid WVA and the GOP on a solid VA. These are both more fluid these days with WVA trending red and VA trending blue. In all honesty I don't think either Obama or Clinton can flip these especially versus McCain. Edwards would have been the stronger nominee here IMO

So that's the 10 states we are looking to flip to win the election. Bush swept all 10 in 2004. We just need one big one (OH, FL) or a couple of mediums (MO,VA, AZ) or several smalls to gain a majority of EV's

The question before us is: can we gain the edge here with Clinton and increasing the women's vote by enough to offset the men's or can we gain the edge with Obama who might have more IND appeal and energize the youth vote. Both have pluses and minuses going for them.

[mrmx9]

1. Not Be Hillary Clinton - cos she's divisive and she'll lose!

[featherman]

2. Maybe I should have posted this in GD... I guess my thinking

in putting it here was for all of us to think seriously about which candidate would be stronger with the Electoral College situation that will face us once again this season.
No DEM, for instance, is likely to flip any solid Red State IMO so whether Confederate State whites would or would not vote for an AA or whether NASCAR dads would or would not vote for a woman is all beside the point. This country has become very regional in its political leanings and I don't see that changing much. So it's all about the EV's.

[Neshanic]

3. No you posted in the right place. They are still in the denial stage. They will come around.