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Extrapolate nationally and Edwards leads!

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Prefer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 09:59 PM
Original message
Extrapolate nationally and Edwards leads!
Edited on Sat Jan-26-08 10:26 PM by Prefer
If you took the national black to white population percentage and applied it to the statistics from the race tonight, what would the scores be?

US population
black - %12
white - %69

so if SC were the nation,

Obama would have won
%80 of %12 (%9.6) and
%25 of %69 (%17.25)
%26.85 pct total of black and white votes


and Edwards would have won
%3 of %12 (%0.36)
%38 of %69 (%26.91)
%27.27 pct total of black and white votes

black and white votes combined would be of 81% of the electorate
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
1. Stop it; you're scaring me. nt
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Prefer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. what do you mean?
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:20 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. If people don't start thinking rationally about what their priorities should be
it looks like it's going to be Obama.

I'm in it for the long haul for Edwards, BTW.
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Prefer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I'll support whoever takes it
I think I was a little wary of Kerry last time it thought being a new englander he was too polar to the south

you have to think about what you need to do to win if you want to win.
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. I will support whoever is nominated too. The Supreme Court is too
important to write off. The rest of what this pResident is going to encounter is going to be crap, but we've got to get in there to do something about the SCOTUS.
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pauldg0 Donating Member (608 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-27-08 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. Well,
you would support a loser....he or she will not beat the republicans. The have so much crap on Obama and Clinton, it will be a scorched earth.

During the primaries it is much harder to say anything negative. Edwards has been clean as a whistle. He could bring them both down, but it doesn't work to your advantage that way, unfortunately.
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thesubstanceofdreams Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. Except that each voter is a person, not a color

That extrapolation doesn't make the slightest sense. Stop considering black/white as the only characteristic which determines one's vote.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. thank you. Also, some people will not vote for who the media says is
not in 1st or 2nd place (they killed off my candidate long ago)
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-26-08 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
8. That's as ridiculous a formulation as I've ever seen.
It doesn't take into account the reality of New Hampshire or Iowa or Nevada. I'd like to say I understand your hope, but as a former Dean supporter, I saw the writing on the wall in NH.
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-27-08 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Okay, so let's do the math on that. Can you supply those NH, IA, NV %s.
And then we also need a factor for the Obama cross-overs who WILL cross back in the GE, a phenomenon that does not happen with Edwards because NO Republican wants to risk the possibility of actually running against Edwards.

But let's take a look at those figures anyway.
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avaistheone1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-27-08 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. Too many republicans voting in Iowa in the Dem caucas, and too many conservatives
Edited on Sun Jan-27-08 11:57 AM by avaistheone1
voting in New Hampshire to have much meaning nationwide. New Hampshire has only begun somewhat of a swing blue in recent times.

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HooptieWagon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-27-08 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
9. And Clinton = 27.76%
Essentially a three way tie. However, 27.76 + 27.27 + 26.85 = 82% of combined Blacks and Whites support one of the three Dem candidates. That can't be right, can it?
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alcibiades_mystery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-27-08 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
13. Saddest post of the day
Edited on Sun Jan-27-08 11:58 AM by alcibiades_mystery
I want to hug you and pat you on the head.
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