Clinton will receive less than 50% of the vote in the Arkansas primary

[Radical Activist]

due to eroding support among African Americans. It will be the final blow to her campaign.

[Quixote1818]

1. Doesn't Ohio have a large Black population too? nt

[Cha]

2. Are you talking primary?

And is this a prediction?

[Radical Activist]

3. Yes

and yes.

[Cha]

7. Did they even think that

through when they started all this crap?

[aquart]

9. So it turns out you don't KNOW a damned thing.

I mean, we all thought the casino caucuses would go for Obama. And New Hampshire was supposed to be a big fat win, too.

Actually, you're just praying as hard as you can, aren't you?

[Radical Activist]

13. Clinton was supposed to win NH and NV by double digits.

That was what the polls said for months. The troubling thing for Clinton is that the more people get to know Obama, the worse she does.

[aquart]

4. Yes, dear. I'm sure it will.

Because 15% of the population is so much more important than 50%.

[Radical Activist]

5. Voters in the Democratic Primary

is what matters in this case, not the general population.

[aquart]

16. Yes, indeedy.

And it's great that you have hope.

I think we can all be impressed that Obama's little spate of crying RACISM! worked so well. I know I am. Oh, I'm sorry. It was his surrogates who did it. His hands are clean.

[Richard Steele]

6. In a general election, she'll receive less than 50% of the vote EVERYWHERE.

Diebold and the Supreme Court can take the day off- the Repubs
won't need either of them to win this one.

[Cha]

8. Let's hope it doesn't

come to that.

[Radical Activist]

11. No doubt about that.

[Hieronymus]

12. Yep

[Redstone]

10. And we should react to your pronouncement exactly how?

Redstone

[Radical Activist]

14. React on Feb. 6

:)

[Redstone]

15. I'll vote for the candidate of my choice, thank you very much.

Redstone

[Radical Activist]

19. umm...ok

I think its safe to say that everyone on DU will vote for the candidate of their choice if that candidate is on the ballot in their state. At least I hope everyone bothers to vote.

[Lucinda]

17. Haven't all the winners received less than 50% of the vote so far?

[Radical Activist]

20. None have run in their home state yet.

[Lucinda]

23. She's not from Arkansas, and hasn't lived there since, what 1993?

I think, for "home state" purposes, New York results might be a better benchmark. I do think she'll do well in Arkansas though.

[Radical Activist]

24. Look. Matching spin.

Predictable but weak. Its a Clinton in Arkansas. Get real.

[mondo joe]

25. It's not her home state. She's not from there, and she never ran for office there.

Very lame of you.

[Radical Activist]

27. lol her husband was Governor

she lived there for most of her adult life. A Clinton losing Arkansas would be amazingly pathetic. It would be a complete and total rejection by the people who know her best in a state where she and her husband are supposed to be loved.

But hey, if you want to talk about her "home" state (I'm assuming you don't mean New York since she hasn't lived there long) I'm sure she'll lose Illinois by a wide margin.

[murielm99]

Bill Clinton lost the governorship in Arkansas after

his first term, and later regained it. So, a Clinton has already lost an election in Arkansas.

Of course Senator Clinton will lose Illinois. I would be very surprised if anyone thought that she could defeat Obama in his home state.

I don't think your predictions are any better than anyone else's.

[mondo joe]

40. Is that the customary meaning of "home state"? Or just the one you like because

it suits your argument?

[JDPriestly]

29. She's from Illinois originally, isn't she?

Wonder how she will do there?

When is the Hawaii primary? I believe that is Obama's birth state.

[Lucinda]

26. She hasn't lived there in about 14 YEARS and you say I'm spinning?

Okiedokie. :rofl:

[Radical Activist]

28. Trying to play the expectations game I see.

Well, Clinton has done that well to cover for the fact that she has done worse than expected in every primary state so far.

[Lucinda]

31. Looks more like you're trying to play the avoid the facts game.

And I expect her to well in Arkansas. Which I already mentioned. :)

[mondo joe]

18. If there are 3 strong contenders wouldn't anyone be likely to get less than 50%?

[Radical Activist]

21. Doing that badly in their home state

when Edwards is likely to be out of the race or a non-player will be especially significant.

[mondo joe]

22. Arkansas isn't Hillary's home state.

[Radical Activist]

44. What is her home state then?

Illinois where she will lose badly?
Not Arkansas where she lived the longest, according to you.
New York where she has lived the shortest length of time?
Maybe DC should count as her home state. I don't think she'll do too well there either.

[Stand and Fight]

30. Dribble.... More speculative dribble.

You cite no reason for your beliefs. You simply offer them up as gospel. Utter nonsense.

You damn people who are so mean-spirited toward a fellow Democrat make me want to support people like Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama all the more. Hell, if I threw my support based on the venom thrown at candidates on this board, I'd never make a choice. For this reason alone I almost wish she garners more than 50% just so that you -- and others like you -- would shut the hell up.

I really can find no basis in your supposition.

[Radical Activist]

32. I did cite a reason.

Did you read my post?
Because of her eroding support among African-Americans which make up a majority of Democratic primary voters in Arkansas.

[Stand and Fight]

34. I'm African-American....

Now I am citing this -- her support is only growing with me and other members of the African-American community that I know of...

If citing your opinion is citing fact, then I've trumped you. :evilgrin:

[Radical Activist]

36. Ok. How about the polls in South Carolina

that show a dramatic and quick drop in her support among black voters. I thought everyone was already aware of that so it didn't need to be repeated.

[bornskeptic]

39. Where did you get that?

African-Americans are not even close to being a Majority of Arkansas Democratic primary voters. They make up about half of South Carolina Democratic voters, but the proportion of African-Americans in South Carolina is almost double what it is in Arkansas.

[BigDDem]

56. Please provide a link where you got that "fact"

I'm sure you have something to back that up, right? :eyes:

[usregimechange]

33. That would be wonderful in the generals. She could get NY maybe.

[book_worm]

35. for all of those people saying that isn't a big deal just remember Clinton was first lady of Ark

for many years and lived there for many years and you would expect her to do well in Arkansas.

[ArkySue]

37. I call Bullshit!

You got poll numbers? You got "on the ground information?" The whole Dem party here supports Hillary.

[William769]

38. Last poll I could find was taken on Dec, 2007,

Hillary Clinton 57%
Barack Obama 17%
John Edwards 14%
Bill Richardson 1%
Unsure 11%



http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/arkansas-polldata-december2007-huckabee-clinton.pdf

[hayu_lol]

41. Sigh, just another redundant Hillary-hating thread by someone whose...

crystal ball was painted black on the inside.

Will these weak minds ever give up? Are they trolls or triangulating somebody surrogates...or just freepers attempting the Rovian 'divide the Dems' and win.

[Radical Activist]

47. scared?

Funny that you posted this in response to a poll that shows I'm not far off as of late December. It confirms my point.

[Radical Activist]

45. Looks like I'm close already.

Only 7 points down from late December and my prediction will come true.

[TwilightZone]

42. Based on data you just made up?

Sorry, you proclaiming it so doesn't make it true.

[SaveElmer]

43. Bookmarked for later gloating...nt

[Lucinda]

49. LMAO

:thumbsup:

[Radical Activist]

51. Likewise

[MyNameGoesHere]

46. Did you wear a funny hat and have

an envelope perched on your forehead? I must find a new Carnac the magnificent. Maybe it will tell me who is going to win.

[suston96]

48. No links? How many registered non-whites and whites in Arkansas?

And what percentages usually vote in each category? Just curious.

[Radical Activist]

52. Feel free

to google and post if you like.

[suston96]

53. I have tried with Arkansas but little luck.

Something like I found for SC:

Total registered voters in SC: 2,246,242

Total voted in Repub primary: 442,789

That leaves: 1,803,453

Of that # non-white voters: 629,000

That leaves total white voters 1,174,353

Non-white voters in SC have shown up by some 20% more than white voters.

[robbedvoter]

50. Your personal poll, right?

[jackson_dem]

54. And Obama will receive less than 50% in Illinois

[ronnykmarshall]

55. Final blow?

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl: