FL poll Bush leads Kerry 47-42 Bush leads Edwards 49-41

[King of New Orleans]

From the Sun-Sentinel


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-afloridapoll29feb29,0,3146156.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines


Kerry leads Edwards 47-25 for Democratic nomination.

Of course neither candidate has actually campaigned in Florida yet.


On the flip side an Arizona State poll had

Kerry 46-44 vs Bush
Edwards 43-42 vs Bush

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm

[diplomats]

1. Good news!

Both are states Bush won in 2000, and if our nominee captures just one of them, he'll win the election. For Bush to get just 44 and 43 percent of the vote against our guys in Arizona is pretty bad. Also notice his approval rating is under 50 percent there.

[TruthIsAll]

9. Wrong. Gore won FL. It was stolen, remember?

Jeez, do your homework.

110,000 spoiled overvotes - most to Gore (70%)
65,000 spoiled undervotes - most to Gore
95,000 illegal disenfranchised - most to Gore (90%)
96,000 voites to Nader - most would have gone to Gore (Ok, not stolen)
butterfly ballot - thousands of Palm Beach Gore votes for Buchanan
illegal Bush absentee ballots- hundreds
Volusia county - 16,000 Gore votes dropped by Diebold hack - and the networks called it for Bush
Dade county - Tom DeLay thugs riot to stop the recount.
SCOTUS - votes 5-4 for to stop the recount, installing Bush by judicial coup.


Must I go on?

[Hippo_Tron]

17. Florida is only one of the possible ways to win...

Even if Bush gets Florida, if we get Arizona we still win.

[TheDonkey]

2. Very interesting battle for VP

which will be based upon geography.
Looks like there can be no other way.
Arizona (Richardson) or Florida (Graham)

[Hippo_Tron]

18. Maybe we can get John McCain to pull a Zell Miller and campaign for us...

That would be very nice.

[diplomats]

3. Interestingly, that Florida poll is of likely voters

As the election nears, I think Dems will be quite energized in Florida, and turnout will be tremendous.

[mndemocrat_29]

14. Which will also help in electing Betty Castor to the Senate

[still_one]

4. I am surprised it is that close in Florida

Since they omitted thousands of minorities from voting in 2000, I would assume they would also omit them from the polling

[diplomats]

5. Great point

That poll also shows Bush's favorable rating at 58 percent, which I think is high, even for Florida.

[King of New Orleans]

7. Wroding always makes a difference

always a difference between favorable and approval and job approval.

[diplomats]

8. I know it's not the same as job approval

but other polls show Bush's favorable rating in the lows 50s.

[bucknaked]

6. Bad News is When your Brother's Own State is in Play...

Grimacing Jebediah handidly won FL (having lived in So FL, I'll never know how), yet his own state is in play. Very... telling.

Oh, speaking of AZ (where my Hopi Mom grew up), I nearly laid an egg when I learned a Dem was elected Gov. It's turning for the better. Might end up moving back there. ;)

[mvd]

10. Thanks for the uplifting news

Just Kerry picking a Southerner for VP could close a gap this narrow quickly.

[tedoll78]

11. This is so excellent!

At this point, it looks like we'd win the election easily!

AZ, OH, PA, MI.. the northeast, the left coast.. they've all pretty much fallen into the blue column. It looks like we'd win with a 30-electoral vote margin if the election were held today.

edit: it's just a shame that we have so much time until the election..

[Paradise]

12. bush leads kerry/bush leads edwards. is that the...

BUTTERFLY POLL??? :puffpiece:

[stldemocrat]

13. Military

There are a lot of military voters registered in FL. Once more of them get to know Kerry's war record, I am sure that will help out quite a bit.

[graywarrior]

15. I moved to Florida in October

I'm surprized at how many senior Republicans living here are voting for Kerry this election. They've had it with the 'lil prince.

[newyawker99]

27. Hi stldemocrat!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[MoonRiver]

16. There is NO hope for FL or TX.

The Repuke machine has taken over those states so thoroughly that we might as well consider them lost. Even if more people vote for our guy, * will "win". The only way we might eventually get back those states is if Dems take over the Presidency, House and Senat, and then institute real election reform, and prosecute the Repuke criminals, like DeLow and Jeb, who have systematically disenfranchised and stolen from their constituencies.

P.S. Georgia might be in the 'rigged for Repukes' category also. I hear less about it than the others, but Diebold did steal the vote for Pukes in 2002.

[Bombtrack]

20. They don't control Florida any more than they do Ohio, it's defeatest

thinking that really angers me when GOP pollsters themselves have been warning the president that Florida is not safe if there is a strong democratic nominee and Graham is vp candidate.

If you just add 75 percent of the nader voters to 527 vote deficit, we win it by over 2 percent. Plus the pissed off minorities who will not get purged this time, plus the jews for buchannon who will vote dem this time.

The GOP wants you to believe that "no, no, Ohio is what you need to focus on, forget florida" Why? Because Florida has had a much bigger population increase in both ethnic and middle class whites, which means more independant thinking, which is bad for the incumbant

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

21. I think the GOP is pretty strong in Ohio

They seem to have a lock in statewide races, and the Democrats are weak in my part of the state.

I know Gore lost Ohio by a few % points. Yet the GOP is organized & strong in my part of the state vis a vis the Democrats.

Dont know about Florida but it was closer in 2000 than in Ohio.

But that was then. What about this year. Perhaps we should compare Ohio & Florida poll numbers....where is Bush weaker?

[Bombtrack]

23. We're going to compete in both, but Florida is more populous

and therefor more important. It's also got a progressive/democrat community with a bigger axe to grind. Within the coming months the big decision will be what vp to chose. And alot of simpletons listening to media whores are saying Gephardt because they believe that mr. no-eyebrows will be the ticket to dominance in the midwest, when nothing could be further from the truth. We need at the MINIMUM, make them work every bit as hard if not harder for Florida as they did in 2000, if you want to be competative everywhere else, and you do that with Bob Graham as your vp

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

24. Graham was looking very vice-presidential in the early season.

Theres a certain gravitas to a Kerry/Graham ticket, assuming Kerry is the nominee. Graham could help in border states, too.

"It's also got a progressive/democrat community with a bigger axe to grind."

Have you followed he Chandler campaign in Kentucky?

This is what Chandler did. He has a targeted GOTV effort with people who serioulsy disliked Bush. Something the Democrats should think about in close states.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

19. so much for Florida.

Maybe the Dems should concentrate on AZ & NM & NV.

[Bombtrack]

22. We lost Arizona by 6.3 percent. This is just insane thinking to say that

Florida is out of reach, when so many factors that have little chance of happening again hurt us last time, and in fact will cause and has caused a fury among Floridians, particularly minorities, that will come back to haunt the GOP.

Florida is by far the "red state" that is most likely to vote blue on paper, but you want to just forget about that because one poll showed Kerry behind by half a dozen points?

This is rediculous. You put Bob Graham on that ticket, as the GOP doesn't want us to do and you see just how foolish it would have been to forget about it. You tell that to we democrats living in Florida who are more ready and willing than democrats in any other state to right what was wronged

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

25. Kerry is doing better than expected in Arizona

...which has been traditionally a Republican state.

That should tell you something.

[Bombtrack]

26. It tells me that we're going to have to work hard for it

but Florida is still worth more than 2 and half times what Arizona is Electorally. And 1 poll isn't going to convince me that Arizona is blue-er than Florida, when we won Florida basically in 2000, and we lost Arizona by over 6 points.

And there are no real vp choices from Arizona for Kerry, at least not any decent ones. Napolitano sure wouldn't be a good choice half way through here first term when she barely won.

Graham is still not even close to being matched in what he brings as a vp, and it's clearly something he's interested in. It's probably the reason he decided to retire from the senate