Nevada Poll: Hillary up by 9...

[SaveElmer]

Jon Ralston just sent out an email saying the new Las Vegas Review Journal poll set to be released later shows Clinton up by 9. Sorry I don't have the exact numbers just the breaking news Jon Ralston is passing on. Obama is in second place though.

For what its worth the LVRJ has Romney up by 15.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/17/15236/3250

[Missy M]

1. Good news!!!

[sunonmars]

2. If she's suddenly shot up by 9

It might be a few things I think

The Debate was well received and the Yukka Mountain thing, that apparently is hitting home with a few people.

[wiley]

8. By Saturday it will be double digit. But it's a Caucus.

And Edwards or Obama have to win it or things will get rather difficult for them both. Clinton did do very well in the debate, I agree.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Link...

without much detail.

http://www.lvrj.com/breaking_news/13871382.html

[Unsane]

4. MSNBC just said Hillary lost her vote suppression suit

anyone see it?

[DURHAM D]

5. Enjoy your stay.

:hi:

[Unsane]

[sunonmars]

6. I'm gonna do an obamabot moment here

Evidence its Hillary's supression suit.

Might as well, they do it , every friggin time.

[Renew Deal]

7. Unsane was a crazy band

[Unsane]

10. INDEED

[wiley]

11. Thank you for donating to DU!

Registered to vote?

[Auntie Bush]

12. Hallelujah...Hallll laaaa luuuu jahhhh!

However, I've learned not to trust polls!

[HeraldSquare212]

13. Key caveat:

TPM
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/

The actual numbers in the poll -- which was conducted Monday through Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research -- won't be available until tomorrow.

Key caveat: No one really has a good idea how to poll a contest like this, since there's never been a crucial high-turnout Nevada caucus before and no one can predict who will turn out.

[sunonmars]

18. apparently it was only 9000 at caucus in 2004 is that right

but then again thats possibly because the nomination was locked up by then was it not?

[HeraldSquare212]

22. That's what I heard, and the only prediction I've heard for this year

is from 25,000 to 125,000. A few weeks ago, I thought people were saying around 40,000, but that might have been before Iowa and NH, which showed there is likely going to be very high turnout.

[Barack_America]

14. I thought that pollster were avoiding NV...

...Saying that the fluid dynamic there made meaningful polls virtually impossible.

Las Vegas Sun
Pollsters Have a Plan for Nevada: Skip It

National public opinion pollsters, fresh off a glaring failure to pick the winner in New Hampshire’s presidential primary, are now violently queasy about trying to predict a winner in Nevada.

In fact, for a variety of reasons, major news organizations are taking a pass on polling before Nevada’s Jan. 19 caucus.

The concerns stem from the New Hampshire mistake and from knowledge that Nevada has a large transient population not familiar with the workings of a big-time caucus.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/jan/11/pollsters-have-plan-nevada-skip-it/

So congrats on that poll, but remember to take it with a grain of salt.

[grantcart]

15. Polls for caucusing

are usually not accurate for obvious reasons. In this case they will be especially unreliable because the modelling they use by definition will be completely arbitrary. Unlike Iowa where the Des Moine Journal has a long experience with caucusing Nevada only had 25,000 at its last caucus. This time its expected to be several times that. Also unlike population stable Iowa, Nevada's demographic keeps undergoing dramatic changes every year.

In this case where the percent of first time caucus goers will be statistically extremely high we should expect that the polls for Nevada to be the least reliable of any state in the primary season.

[hayu_lol]

19. Polling a caucus is sort of trying to catch a falling star...

in Nevada however, where is Jimmy The Greek when you need him.

Someone living in Vegas should ask some of the more prominent bookies to find the odds...better than polls. Bookies ya know, put their money where their mouths are.

[Zhuk]

16. Good News

good news for Clinton, certainly can't hurt regardless of the outcome on the day

[ronnykmarshall]

17. Chi-Chi is working overtime!

[Barack_America]

20. Looks like she was +8 in the last Mason-Dixon poll...so not much change.

I guess.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_democratic_caucus-236.html

(The Las Vegas Review Journal conducted the poll with Mason-Dixon, according to their site)
http://www.lvrj.com/

[Thrill]

21. Cool now they'll call Obama the comeback kid on Saturday

[sunonmars]

23. God the Dem caucus rules confuse the hell out of me

http://www.nvdemscaucus.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=30

Thats the viability rules.

[yodermon]

24. .. so by New Hamphshire Polling Logic, she'll lose by 3! cool!

[sunonmars]

25. and then Obama loses by 3 in SC with that formula too

[rodeodance]

26. Stay Cool hil.

[WI_DEM]

27. I love it that the poll will have Mittens up by 15!

more confusion in the GOP race if Huck wins SC and Mittens in NV.