I said it was possible Monday, it happened Tuesday...the REAL reason for the Clinton bump in NH

[Didereaux]

Firstly, I am not known fro my accurate predictions(not even in my own mind heh) but once in awhile my analysis of a situation turns out to be spot on and concerning where those votes came from Tuesday for Clinton appears to be just that: Spot on.
(see my post Mon 9 Jan) http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2620404&mesg_id=2620631

then the one Tuesday evening: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4006451&mesg_id=4006773


The institutions, moieties and other such inventions of man are always complex affairs in their structure...but the underlying reasons for what the people who are members do or not do is always simplistic, and very often the even the most severe threats are dealt with at the last moment abandoning in many cases plans laid out long before their need. The second trait is that the human will react to the emotional memory before the rational memory i.e. the amydala trumps the cerebellum. HAving said that read the following and see if it doesn't square up pretty accurately to those premises.

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When the candidates own trackers all of them come down to the last day agreeing and then at vote counting time it comes out opposite, the smart people look first to what happened in the last 24hrs. Hillary got bashed good by the TV networks, by the other candidates(and it was widely perceived that Edwards had puposfully whipsawed her with Obama, follow that with the Newspaper bashings by the Boston Globe and NYT...THEN for the first time Hillary showed the rest of the country what I honestly believe was an actual unscripted honest heartfelt emotion backed answer (yes, she quickly recovered and went back to the mask, but it was there, it played all over the media(they wrongly interpreted it as a gasp of despair)...add all those together and toss them at a group of people who think of themselves as charitable and compassionate and you get BACKLASH!

Now the backlash hurt Edwards the most, Obama learned real early on just how much folly there is counting young eggs before they are even laid. Although there was once again a huge turnout, his college army was swamped.

But it all boils down to this, politics is not science, it is trying to sway possibly the most fickle species yet evolved and that is a tough thing to do.

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See what I mean? No conspiracies, no convoluted dissecting of political machinations - just plain old everyday human reactions that we all see every single day.

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I'm me and I approved of this message...not me, just the message!

[rodeodance]

1. I heard her cry for our nation-it was powerful. Perhaps others heard that also. Simple as that.

[Armstead]

3. What? C'mon that demonstrates the OP's point

[TwilightGardener]

5. Barf.

[Didereaux]

6. but that 'Hillary' moment would not have occured without the bashing...the exact individual

personal reason that the voter had that caused the vote was the over the top bashing, which provided the almost unheard of public display of honesty and emotion by Clinton. As I said ot lasted only a minute or two, but their is no real doubt that it was indeed and honest reaction. But Clinton would never have been put in that position without the massive bash campaign.

Some lessons to be learned:
Edwards, take note it was mostly you that lost votes and that can be laid to your apparent 'double-teaming' with Obama at the debates.
Obama take note and realize that the 'kiddy army' is only a small demographic, and if they are also obnoxious and offend the older voters, the older voters will abandon you, and your kids will anyway long before the general election.

[sandnsea]

2. Under 30 in Iowa was 23%, NH 18%

I think that made a huge difference. The Republican vote was 57% men. So either hoards of women showed up to defend Hillary from being picked on, or men decided to make sure Romney didn't win, or some combination.

And Bill Clinton can still sell ice to eskimos.

[TwilightGardener]

4. Silly Obama, believing his internal polls and thinking he could win.