I think Obama will "help" Romney win the puke primary in NH

[cali]

I think Obama is going to take so many indie votes that Romney will edge out McCain.

I think Obama will end up with 43% of the vote in the dem primary, with Clinton getting 28% followed by Edwards with 25% and Richardson and Kucinich splitting the remaining few points.

[SteppingRazor]

1. I agree with your take that Romney will win NH, but...

I think your percentages on the Dem. side are off. I think NH will be way closer than a 15-point victory for Obama, though I do think he'll win. I'm guessing more like 5 points, though, not 15.

[cali]

2. I'm basing that margin on the large numbers that NH SoS

predicts will turn out to vote, the fact that close to 45% of all voters in NH are independents and on his 8 pt margin in Iowa. As people have noted, NH is a state with an electorate much more favorable to Obama than Iowa. I predicted Obama would win Iowa with 34% of caucus goers so I'm upping that by almost double his 8 pt margin, considering all the above.

[MadBadger]

4. Im pretty close to you. Obama wins by 12 and Clinton beats Edwards by 1

I disagree with you that Edwards isnt getting a bump. I think he is, and he continued it with his great debate last night.

[BlueManDude]

3. I hope so.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The RCP Average Was More Or Less Right In IA And It Will Be Right In NH As Well

Put a fork in Mitt and plan for a McCain-Huckabee ticket in the Fall...

[cali]

7. Well, I see a different dynamic in NH

McCain needs the lion's share of the indie vote to win, and I think Obama's gonna get that. And if Romney wins in NH- even by a little bit, he's back in the race in a major way.

[Thrill]

6. They love McCain there

and they all made Romney look like an idiot last night. He's done there

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Romney Is So Finished

I actually respect the job he did with everybody attacking him but that's not how the media portrayed it...

[cali]

10. I think the indies love Obama a lot more than McCain

and I'm sure not the only one. I was listening to Vt political analyst Eric Davis on Friday and he predicted that Obama would get something like 60% of the independent vote. Not sure what he's basing that on, but he's a pretty shrewd prognosticator.

[skipos]

8. McCain won NH in 2000, I think he can win it in 2008, but I don't think it'll be enough for the nom

since he is a distant 3rd, 4th or 5th in every other state.
Romney may win for the reasons you state though, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Kahuna]

11. Tim Russert just showed a poll showing that the Indie support

is about evenly split between Obama and McCain which sounds right to me. The poll also shows both Obama and McCain winning.

[sniffa]

12. I agree on the independent vote

But, I feel that Republicans will break late for McCain and abandon Romney. I think Romney's going to lose to McCain, but probably by not that much.

[TwilightGardener]

13. Did anyone see Romney and Obama gravitating towards each other

in the meet-and-greet last night? They kept talking and being all buddy-buddy. It was..disturbing. What would Obama and Romney ever have to say to each other?