My New Hampshire predictions

[cali]

Obama 43%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 21%
Richardson 4%

New Hampshire is expecting a huge turnout. Heard it this morning on VPR and BBC.

[still_one]

1. how were your predictions on Iowa? /nt

[cali]

2. Obama 34%, Edwards 29%

and Clinton, I believe, 26%. Not perfect, but not bad. I thought Biden would do better though.

[ccpup]

7. Not perfect?

that was damn good!

Except you underestimated Clinton and, taking into account her husband's famously dismal showings in the State when he was running and the fact that she was facing someone who had immense momentum going in to yesterday and had all but lived in the State for the past four years, the fact that she came within .3 of beating him was breathtaking.

Obama has to step up his game now. Something tells me the race will get reallllllly interesting from now on.

[still_one]

8. ummmm, that was pretty good prediction /nt

[Bread and Circus]

9. That's frickin' amazing if u called it like that.

[cali]

10. Nah, another poster called it almost perfectly yesterday

I was off by quite a bit, really. I got the order right, but missed on how many pts Obama won by, and I never saw the near tie between Edwards and Clinton.

[gaiilonfong]

3. From your mouth to the voters fingers n/t

[ccpup]

4. I'll go with

Clinton 41%
Obama 39%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 2%

[SheilaT]

5. Sometimes, it seems to me,

that the voters in New Hampshire very much want to set themselves apart from those in Iowa. It's their way of saying they won't play follow-the-leader, they won't let Iowa determine the candidate.

And of course, the real question is: just how many convention delegates have been determined in Iowa, how many will be determined in New Hampshire?

[arewenotdemo]

17. They set themselves apart (from the rest of the Blue North) in 2000

and so gave us Bush.

Here's hoping they don't derail Barack.

[maxanne]

18. oh please

In 2006 we were the only state in the country to turn blue.

We didn't give you Bush. The Supreme Court gave you Bush, Katherine Harris and Jeb gave you Bush, voter tampering gave you Bush, Al Gore's weenying out gave you Bush, every voter who sat out the election gave you Bush.

[arewenotdemo]

20. Several factors, sure. But a red state in the heart of New England?

Gore wins if it had gone for him. Painful truth.

[maxanne]

21. well

it's certainly easier to believe that than use any critical thinking skills.

[arewenotdemo]

22. sorry if I offended

I have to live with my birth state (Ohio) dragging the Union down in 2004. I really believed it was going to make me proud. Silly, maybe...and obviously naive.

[Dawgs]

6. That looks pretty good.

I was thinking that it might be closer than that, but Edwards was already down in NH. I think Obama grabs at least 10% from all candidates not named Hillary, and maybe 1 or 2 percentage points from Hillary herself. Also, Iowa showed us that the youth vote is not to be ignored this time.

Obama will win with ease in NH.

[Robbins]

11. Prediction

I think based on part on Independents Obama wins.i think it will be closer with Hillary than In
Iowa.This could be bad news for Mccain.Obama does well with Independents,and many Independents
agree with Democrats on Iraq not all Is going right Mccain.Some of these polls with Hillary ahead
here had her ahead In Iowa or had her ahead of Edwards for second.Don't forget In 2004 Dean was
ahead here till Kerry won In Iowa.

[Bullet1987]

12. I also predicted Obama, Edwards, and Clinton at

Obama: 31%
Edwards: 29%
Clinton: 26%

No one expected the 2nd tier to drop off the face of the earth the way they did. And no one expected Obama to beat Clinton by 9 points and Edwards by 8. As far as NH, if you get record turnout like Iowa, that heavily favors Obama. I expect Obama to also break the 40% threshold...these are my pre-polling numbers

Obama: 41%
Clinton: 36%
Edwards: 21%

[Robbins]

13. Iowa

I predected the finish would be Obama,Edwards,and Hillary.Obama did higher totals than I thought
as did Edwards and Hillary.I thought It would be more 2 points between Edwards and Hillary.I did
think Biden would do better than he did.The momentum Is on Obama's side.Remember all the attacks on
Obama by the Clinton people.and If Republicans decide to go with Mccain wouldn't It be a nice thing
to have a young charismic candiate against him?

[Kahuna]

14. I think Obama and Hillary will be very close. But Obama will

prevail within 5 pts. But I hope you're right.

[Mike03]

15. Cali, your predictions are fascinating and so often accurate.

Didn't you call Huckabee months before anyone else?

You were talking about him as a victor in particular primaries way, way before anyone else even noticed him.

[Yukari Yakumo]

16. Mine

I'll probably be way off...

1. Clinton 37%
2. Obama 36%
3. Edwards 19%
4. Richardson 6%
5. Kucinich 1%
6. Gravel <1%

[merbex]

19. It's possible that Hillary could come in 3rd again in NH;everything depends

on that debate.

If she gives off a whiff of desperation tomorrow you may see a lot of her mushy support go to Edwards.

By mushy I mean the "leaning to Hillary" but still undecided.

I have been up there enough this summer and Fall to conclude that her supporters have a real antipathy toward him and his campaign.

The only prediction I am willing to make is that Obama will win NH

Second is wide open

[itsrobert]

23. Her speech did not help her tonight

She's in free fall. Edwards may beat her.