Clinton is finished, and here is why

[knight_of_the_star]

As a preface, this is my analysis based on both the situation and the campaigns up to this point. This could be proven wrong which is why it is going in my journal so I can review it at a later date for that reason.

To get right to the point, HRC's campaign has been based on projecting the idea of presidential respectability, experience, and inevitability. The last part is especially what is going to bite her in the rear starting tonight on down to the nomination. While she claims her experience is why she should be elected, the problem is her experience is not genuinely hers which also proved to be detrimental to her message. But aside from issues, it is ultimately in strategy that she is now set to go down hard. By staking her claim on inevitability, she would have to prove it by winning the early races, thus building up unstoppable momentum that no other candidate could touch. That she failed to win a solid first and is tied with Edwards who raised less money than she did along with Biden and Dodd dropping out of the race leaves her campaign in a very bad way. The only way inevitability could work for her is if she made it happen and won with little contest, her support has always been only solid in the 30s once the campaign season started and was often not in the second or third place choices for the other candidates. That she failed to knock out either of her major contenders early on makes it hard for her to claim this aura of invincibility.

Furthermore, by having Edwards still in the game and Obama currently in the lead HRC runs into another problem: if she had been able to secure a solid victory now then she could sail past both of them, but that both are still in the race means that if one drops out then the support of one could easily rally behind the other as THE candidate who will be the nominee, not to mention the anti-Clinton of this primary season. In trying to claim an image of being truly untouchable she set a bar for herself that she could not jump and as a result now has to face two strong, proven candidates in an unfavorable situation. That she went so negative just before Iowa only hurts her more as it makes her campaign appear to be running out of ideas and steam and with this recent caucus this perception has some grain of truth to it, leaving her campaign badly wounded and running low as well as failing to take the high road.

Right now the only way HRC, as I see it, can pull out of this mess is if she somehow nails Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina with rock-solid first place finishes with huge margins of victory, otherwise the weaker of the other two frontrunners once they drop out will strengthen the other making her victory impossible.

[cyclezealot]

1. Hillary is sort of a tragic figure.

I wish her a long life in the Senate and she grows into the job. But, she carries over Bill's triangulation techniques. People want a politician who is real. She triangulated her seat onto Armed Services and tried to convince us her testerstone level was equilivant to any male's. She should have been herself and represented progressive values. I hope those progressive values is the real Hillary. Often she indicates such. It's just she did not do her job when she listened to George Bush , trying to be macho. Now she pays the price for not staying in touch with her base.

[knight_of_the_star]

2. I hope tonight is also a wakeup call for the rest of DC

If nothing else Iowa should show those who aren't too firmly setup in the DC Bubble that the world beyond the beltway is much more powerful than they think.

[aquart]

7. Kucinich couldn't get a single delegate. Not one.

And we're all so glad you learned the word "triangulate." It means all things bad, of course. Satan triangulates.

I'm so happy that you're not concerned that Kucinich is a tragic figure.

[cyclezealot]

10. Hillary is the one who almost had the gold ring

and maybe lost it. Learn the word 'triangulate.' Its been way too familiar with American voters for over 15 years now. Unfortunately so. Kucinich is not a tragic figure he stands proud by his consistency for representing what the Democratic party need be. For healthcare, against sell out trade pacts, and unnecessary war. Don't feel the least bit tragic about Kucinich , those with unbending principals of course live with the wrath of a corporate media that constantly conditions an unthinking American mind.

[TheWatcher]

12. I kind of feel sorry for you.

Every day when you look in the mirror, you get to see a tragic figure.

I think I'm beginning to see why you are so caustic and cantankerous.

[Colobo]

21. It's sad, isn't it?

[Joe the Revelator]

30. We've resorted to just straight personal attack?

Not nessasary.

[IsItJustMe]

32. Your right, It's sad to see personal attacks because of one's choice of candidate and is not

appropriate.

[sniffa]

28. that's right. lash out.

poor thing. :hug:

[karynnj]

20. If she lose, her position in the Senate will change as well

From many "back stage" accounts, such as "Hillary's War" in the NYT magazine section, many far senior people deferred to her because of who she was the embodiment of the Democratic establishment and the likely next President. If Obama wins, it could shake the Democratic establishment as well. If other states follow Iowa, what is shows is the rejection of Clintonian control of the party.

In 2004, the Clintons faced the likelihood that Kerry would take the party and the country in a different direction, but an Obama win would make it clearer that that is exactly what the people in the Democratic party want. The odd impact of HRC running and losing might be that Bill Clinton will have less power in the party as an elder statesman than he would otherwise. At least so far, he has done more to damage his image than help it.

HRC will never be a run of the mill Senator, but the question is where will she fit in. That may depend on what the truth is about how she interacts with other Senators. The media has regularly spoke of how she took a low key approach when she first entered the Senate and how she worked very well with her colleagues. But, there were also glimpses where this was not the case. The examples of her working with others seem weak - like working with the Republicans and Leiberman on video games control.

If she really can force alliances and create compromises among Democrats, she might be a good leader. She does not yet have the senority to chair any committee, but she likely does chair some subcommittees. On healthcare, a major Clinton interest area, the two committees that deal with it are the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, HELP, headed by Senator Kennedy and the Senate Finance subcommittee, where the most senior people are Rockefeller, Kerry and Bingaman (Republicans - Hatch, Grassley and Snowe). HRC is on HELP - here by rank are:
Edward Kennedy (MA)
Christopher Dodd (CT)
Tom Harkin (IA)
Barbara A. Mikulski (MD)
Jeff Bingaman (NM)
Patty Murray (WA)
Jack Reed (RI)
Hillary Rodham Clinton(NY)
Barack Obama (IL)
Bernard Sanders (I) (VT)
Sherrod Brown (OH)

[David Dunham]

3. Hillary has a big organization in NH, Obama doesn't, Edwards won't play there

[Joe the Revelator]

29. You were using this same type of wishful thinking RE: Iowa

See how well that worked out for you.

[tblue]

4. The "UnHillary", eh? Never thought of it that way.

I think her high negatives are really scary even to people who genuinely want to support her. For me personally, she's let me down, though I do believe she is brilliant and capable, and could truly hit the ground running.

[caligirl]

5. Like I said she self inflicted this outcome, bad advisors, short sighted

reading of the publics disgust with the failed Bush WH, tired of the Bush Clinton monopoly on the podium. Or the shear totality of the wrongs committed by Rove, cheney and Bush creating a hunger for sea change in the hearts and minds of Americans as they go for the candidate who will give them that sea change. Had things with the Bushies not been as horrendous as they have been would we seek as great a change as we are now.

[aquart]

8. There's that ever so clever meme!

"Bush Clinton monopoly" Oh! Not a dynasty today? Monopoly?

It's so wonderful because it's barely a half-truth yet a total lie. Who taught it to you? Your mother?

[TheWatcher]

13. You never stop, do you?

Do you ever tire of being such an obnoxious boor?

[OHdem10]

6. I am an Edwards supporter---I say Hilary is down but not out.

There is a good possibility she will end up the nominee.

Our Candidates have to pass the Commander In Chief Testor there
is no point in going up against the GOP. They were discussing
this on C Rose Show tonight.

The Reporters admitted HRC has gotten unfair coverage, admitting
the Media does not like her. They admitted Obama was permitted
to breeze through with no scrutiny and just as much positve coverage
as HRC got negative coverage. They admitted the Media are in a
swoon over Obama or in love with him. In other words no one
did their job and now , they admitted Obama is this blank canvass
upon which people throw their hopes. No one knows what Obamas
hopes are for them and the country. "He has to be able to meet
Commander In Chief". We are war, we have problems with Iran
Pakistan--this will be going on for years.

[ClintonTyree]

9. "The media does not like her"?

Gee, reading the pages of DU would lead one to believe that the media loves her and has already chosen her as our next President. That seems to be the general consensus of opinion, anyway. Would that mean that many DUers are talking out of their asses?

Signed,

Confused

[cyclezealot]

11. Rupert Murdock gave her millions

and the press does not like her. Strange.

[cali]

15. What a silly lie.

Murdoch did not give her millions. He held one fundraiser for he when she was running for re-election for the Senate. And he did that because she was inevitable in that race.

[cyclezealot]

16. So Bill did not do Murdock's bidding

you are right. Murdock just helped steer all that cash her way.

[Josh]

17. I actually think Edwards is keeping Hillary alive -

if he dropped out, 80% of his supporters would gravitate to Obama and Hillary would be gone -- it'd be the one, two punch in New Hampshire. Obama may win New Hampshire, but if Edwards was out he would *definitely* win.

Nothing against Edwards, or any of the candidates. I'm from Australia and don't really have a preference, but it's sure interesting to watch.

[underpants]

26. Clinton's "sell newspapers"

The entire Whitewater investigation was nothing but that.

The media, especially the DC punditry, want her to win--she is a know quantity and the party will keep rolling on.

[KoKo]

34. And....she had committed delegates in many states. The DLC is behind her

and that will give her an edge for a long haul.

[knight_of_the_star]

37. The DLC isn't the force it used to be

And is certainly not strong enough to force her nomination on the party. If Edwards or Obama drop out then its over for her and that both remain viable ensures that this will doom her in the long run.

[Perry Logan]

14. It'll be fun to show you this post when Hillary is sworn in.

[Tesha]

18. In which country? (NT)

[Colobo]

22. She'll be sworn in... for another term in the Senate.

[JTFrog]

27. Will that be video taped from dreamland? n/t

[knight_of_the_star]

38. She won't win this one

Simply because since she failed to cream both Obama and Edwards if one drops out she will be swamped. That she failed to break out of her 30% shell shows how insubstantial her support truly is and does not extend beyond a hard core in the party.

[NashVegas]

19. Something That Just Struck Me - About Bill

How negative can he go on other candidates - compared to other candidates' spouses?

[JTFrog]

23. I don't want her to come close, but it would be absolutely foolish to write a Clinton off this soon.

Any candidate would do so at their own peril.

[Colobo]

24. No, now is the time to finish her off.

[underpants]

25. I agree everyone is still in

at least three on on our side

The republicans-it is hilarious to watch MSM try to figure out how they are supposed to report on the Republicans, they don't have a clue as how to report on anything less than a two person race.

[mckeown1128]

31. k & r

[FogerRox]

33. HRC needs to win primaries prior to super tuesday

I like your theory, it holds water.. BTW, Clinton didnt tie Edwards he won by slightly over a 1/4%.

If HRC and Obama attack each other, thats good for Edwards.....

[Orsino]

35. Premature. Waaay premature.

Whatever happens, though, it seems that she will not be able to coast her way to the Inauguration. It would please me to learn that Americans were able to reject her rock-star appeal for the right reason: her corporatist voting record.

She's going to have to start making some concrete promises, though, to ensure her nomination. I'll look forward to that spectacle, at least.

[sniffa]

36. she's about go negative

should be fun to see how that turns out.

[knight_of_the_star]

39. She's already gone negative

Even if she tries to get away from having done that she still dove into the gutter too quickly and too early and that taints her whole campaign from here on out.

[Whisp]

40. that's so true. she's already tried and failed at it.

I think she pissed more people off toward her for doing those lame shots.

but it's not over til it's over and there is lots of time for many surprises both planned and genuine, but I'm very glad some polish has been rubbed off that shiny Knob Hill head of hers last night.

oh, and bill looked appropriately devastated last night - good to see the cocky smirk off his face once in a while.

[knight_of_the_star]

41. I see no problem with a changing of the guard

We need new blood in our political system, not the same two families.

[Voltaire99]

42. I bow to no one in despising HIllary's politics, but...

...your crystal ball is faulty. She is very far from finished.

Her technocratic, market-fundamentalist message was never going to play well in touchy-feely, barnyard Iowa. She knew this. The woman could barely conceal her contempt for the lowly Iowans, in fact, dashing off after delivering her stump speech before having to field their questions.

No, Iowa was not where the game would be determined. She has money, a machine, elite consensus and maniacal ambition. Together these qualities matter much more than what we progressives think. Do not be shocked if Hillary loses until February, whereupon she takes it all on Super Tuesday.

[Honeycombe8]

43. Sorry, but I don't see any real world substance here. Where are the numbers?

Winning the nomination is not just about ideology. It's about numbers.

Obama wins IA and NH.
Then who wins the next states: Nevada, Michigan, S.C., Florida.
Then comes super Tuesday. HERE'S WHERE IT COULD ALL END, if not decided before.

BUT Edwards or Obama need to clearly win MOST of the states - which will be easy if momentum is established, as opposed to a 3 way race going on and on - because HILLARY CLINTON ALREADY HAS A LOT OF SUPERDELEGATES COMMITTED TO HER, while Edwards and Obama have a fraction of that number. Without her winning even one state, she is ahead now, and will remain so after NH, even if Obama wins.

It's a numbers game. She is still the odds on favorite to win, per the gamblers. It'll be tough to beat her, but it can be done.

I am an Obama supporter, BTW. But a realist, too.