And he was at dinner with his family instead of watching caucus results when he got the call that he had won. I think given his lack of nervousness (basketball game and not watching caucus results), Obama's internals might have suggested that he was going to win strongly.
Bball article via Huff Post:
DES MOINES, IA.--Barack Obama's wife Michelle wished her husband "Happy Caucus Day" on Thursday morning, where Obama warmed up for the first-in-the-nation presidential vote by playing basketball with some buddies and hitting morning television shows.
The pick-up game, running more than an hour, was organized by Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, a liong-time Obama friend and a supporter and fund-raising going back to Obama's senate run. The level of play was "very competitive," I'm told. Obama: "He played hard. He played smart." If Obama wins the caucus tonight. This basketball playing stuff will become a metaphor for his campaign here.
The players included Giannoulias, Obama bodyman Reggie Love, a college ball player and ex-pro football player. (What, you ask is a bodyman?) The trusted aide who physically stands next to the candidate (not security) to handle any stuff that comes up from someone they meet along the way.)
Full article at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/03/obama-warms-up-for-caucus_n_79612.html