Do not panic, Edwards and Clinton supporters. Independents get lazy and don't show up at the end

[antiimperialist]

If we take 2004 as a barometer, then this is bad news for Obama, who is heavily counting on outsiders to win this thing in Iowa. Look at the breakdown of party ID extracted from this entrance poll in the 2004 Democratic primary voters:

Strong Democrats: 64%
Not strong Democrat: 15%
Independent: 19%
Republican: 1%

The latest Des Moines Register poll included 40% of independents, twich as much as in 2004.

Obama is going to come in 3rd place. I guarantee it. Indies and Republicans are lazy. It's not their party anyway.

[Colobo]

1. Wishful thinking...

[Sulawesi]

2. I do think this is an issue...

Everything I see trends positive for Obama, but every year someone counts of young and/or first time voters, and they almost never come through. Hoping...

[sandnsea]

3. CNN: Clinton 33, Obama 31 DEMOCRATS

Sorry, the other polls show Obama doing equally well among just Democats too.

I never thought I'd see the day DU would support Hillary Clinton over anybody, let alone a lifelong progressive Dem. This place defies all explanation and logic.

[CoffeeCat]

10. I know...it blows me away...

We used to collectively agree that Joe Lieberman was political scum, with
his warmongering votes. Now, Hillary votes in line with Lieberman, and
suddenly, there's a tidal wave of rationalizations for Hillary's warmongering.

This bizarre and unnatural blip is duly noted.

[IndianaJones]

11. OUTRAGEOUS!!! nt.

[cali]

19. Dick Durbin also voted for K/L

God simplistic posts like all of yours are a bore.

[Liberty Belle]

4. A blizzard is forecast. I think that favors Edwards, as labor loyalists will turn out

even in bad weather. Older folks, especially those with health issues, are apt to stay home. Same with students or folks without transportation, and anyone not strongly committed to a cause or candidate is more apt to be a "fair weather" voter.

[antiimperialist]

5. There are no storms forecast for Thursday

Although it will be a chilly 29 degrees.

[annie1]

6. dear lord i hope the weather is good.

[Herman Munster]

7. what are you talking about?

Have you even looked at the weather forecase for thursday?

Des Moines

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Not as cold. Low 15 to 20. South wind around 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=des+moines%2C+iowa

Sioux City

Thursday Night
Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=sioux+city%2C+iowa

Iowa City

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=iowa+city%2C+iowa

Thursday Night
Not as cold. Partly cloudy. Low around 19. South wind 10 to 20 mph.

[musicblind]

8. blizzard

really? I thought the weather was supossed to be good? It's a blizzard now? Well that DOES look nice for Edwards.

[Herman Munster]

9. he's talking out of his ass

I posted links to the weather in all 3 sections of the state, east, west, and central.

[musicblind]

18. sorry

oh sorry, for some reason I didn't see your post before I posted my post. Yeah I had heard that the weather would be clear. Thanx for the info :)

[antiimperialist]

12. Snow means that wealthy Republicans who own gas-guzzling SUV's will get to vote

While poor Democrats will stay home. In short, Snow=good for Obama. Good weather=bad for Obama.

Lol I know I'm probably overanalyzing here but I'm having fun.

[cali]

20. What a riot.

How desperate do you have to be to pull weather forecasts out of your rear?

[enlightenment]

13. I'm a lifelong independent - and I'm not politically lazy.

Actually, since I have always lived in states with closed primaries (so NOT democratic, btw), I have to put in more effort to participate in the political process from beginning to end.

I originally was "unaffiliated" but they don't allow that as a choice these days; that word, however, defines my position in regard to political parties. I choose not to register as a Democrat because I take issue with the default two-party system in this country - not because I'm lazy.

Please don't broadbrush. I admit to being more of a couch potato then is healthy, but not when it comes to politics. :)

[CoffeeCat]

14. You don't know what you're talking about...

There are plenty of registered Independents in Iowa. Some break left and tend to for the Democrats, and
some break right and tend to vote Republican.

I used to be a registered Independent in Iowa. Then, I switched to Democrat. I was loyal to the political
process as an Independent, as I am now when I'm a Dem.

I don't know on what you're basing your underlying supposition "Indies and Republicans are lazy". You use
this reasoning to tout your theory that "Obama is going to come in third place."

Your thinking is very flawed. I've participated in the caucuses before and plenty of Independents
were there. If anything, Independents are people who look at the issues carefully and scrutinize the
candidates more clearly--before making a decision. They're usually very keyed in to politics.

I think your theories don't reflect the reality in Iowa.

Furthermore, did you bother looking at the poll trends in Iowa? That says it all to me. Iowans are really
firming up their decisions. It's go time.

Look at Obama's numbers from Dec 27-28 TO Dec 29-30. Obama went from 29-34.

Hillary declined from: 27--23. Edwards increased from 23---26.

I saw this in 04. Many Iowans don't firm up their decisions until the 11th hour. The political game is so
volatile. I sometimes feel like I'm biding time to the end--in case a candidate royally screws up. I think
many Iowans are cautious with their support, and decisions are solidified a day or two before the caucus.

If anything, these numbers show me that Hillary is on a very steep, downward trend--Obama is gathering
support and Edwards is holding his own and slightly ticking upward.

[antiimperialist]

15. But if 19% os Indies showed up in '04, why would up to 40% show up now?

What's the reasoning behind that assumption?

[LordJFT]

16. go on keep ignoring the fact that obama has more supporters than hilary that have caucused before

which is also a big indicator of who will show up

[TeamJordan23]

17. I dont think Mr. Obama was running in 2004. nm

[chascarrillo]

21. Faulty reasoning

(Sorry for using the word "faulty" - not meant as a pejorative... my thesaurus is on the fritz.)

That was a breakdown of voters in the Democratic caucus in 2004. You're assuming that the factors that would bring in independents to the Democratic caucus are the same in 2008 as they are in 2004. Given the energizing of independents in favor of siding with the Democratic side in 2008, and given that I don't remember the same trend in 2004 (but prove me wrong - my memory does tend to be selective), I don't think that you can draw a parallel.