"It is impossible to predict an winner in Iowa based on available polling data"

[calteacherguy]

"As a practical matter, it is impossible to project a winner based for either party in Iowa based upon available polling data. All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. This year’s Iowa caucus presents even more difficulties because of the January 3 date. It will be difficult to obtain reliable polling during the upcoming holiday period. Historically, large numbers of Iowa caucus participants make up their minds in the final two weeks of the campaign."

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus

[Lucinda]

1. Exactly. It will be up in the air until it's a done deal.

[ClarkUSA]

2. FYI: At present, Obama leads the RCP Poll Average for Iowa....

Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

The lead is close to being outside the collective aggregate MOE, too. This, despite all the Clintonian-Rovian dirty tricks being played on both
Obama and Edwards recently. Good for them.