John Nichols: Could Clinton Finish 3rd in Iowa? Yes.

[marmar]

from The Nation:




COULD CLINTON FINISH 3RD IN IOWA? YES...Could Hillary Clinton come in third in Iowa?

It's possible.

Check out the new Insider Advantage poll numbers from the first caucus state.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama is at 32 percent, finally moving outside margin-of-error territory to a clear lead.

Clinton is still in second, with 25 percent. But she is no longer the master of the position. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is tied with the former front-runner among likely Democratic presidential caucus participants.

No one else matters much. Joe Biden's at 5 percent, Bill Richardson 3 percent, and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich 1 percent each.

With Obama apparently closing in on Clinton in New Hampshire, if the latest polling out of the first primary state is right, the senator from New York has a serious problem.

...(snip)...

Imagine this scenario: An Edwards win in Iowa, an Obama win in New Hampshire, an Edwards win in the January 19 Nevada caucuses if he scores an endorsement from the muscular UNITE-HERE Culinary Workers local in Las Vegas, an Obama win in the January 29 South Carolina primary where his strong Iowa and New Hampshire finishes will help him ease concerns about his candidacy among older African-American voters, and Clinton desperately looking for solid ground. But don't count the former first-lady out. Her poll numbers remain very strong in Nevada and she is still ahead -- albeit narrowly -- in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. Additionally, her aides quietly remind reporters that the senator is likely to win easily in the neutered January 15 and January 29 primaries in Michigan and Florida, the two biggest states expected to vote before February 5's multi-state primary and caucus "super-duper Tuesday. And, of course, a Clinton campaign that has never been accused of being gentle continues to search -- with new urgency -- for a strategy to kneecap both Obama and Edwards before Iowa.


Posted by John Nichols at 12/07/2007 @ 11:39am .......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=257746

[rinsd]

1. Its Strategic Visions, John. Not Insider Advantage.

Insider advantage just conducted a GOP IA poll.

Though I will give his credit after his scenario he offered up this

"But don't count the former first-lady out. Her poll numbers remain very strong in Nevada and she is still ahead -- albeit narrowly -- in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. Additionally, her aides quietly remind reporters that the senator is likely to win easily in the neutered January 15 and January 29 primaries in Michigan and Florida, the two biggest states expected to vote before February 5's multi-state primary and caucus "super-duper Tuesday."

[BeyondGeography]

2. There will be no knockouts before Feb. 5 the way things look

and, if somebody else doesn't catch fire, like, yesterday, the sheer size of Feb. 5 rules out everyone except Clinton and Obama.

[rinsd]

3. This could be crazy especially in CA.

Say Obama does well in IA, NH & SC taking 2 out of 3, he could have good momentum going against Hillary in CA.

But as wyldwolf is quite fond of pointing out CA has good chunk of voters voting absentee. And absentee ballots may be submitted before Obama gets his big mo underway.

It should be interesting. I just hope there are enough of us left standing that don't hate each others' guts that we can get take on the GOP.

[zulchzulu]

4. John is spot on

[Occam Bandage]

5. An Edwards win in IA will lead to a Clinton Presidency, IMO.

He doesn't have the infrastructure or the funding to compete Super Tuesday, and he's not going to win South Carolina or New Hampshire. Clinton will absorb the loss and steamroll him.

If Obama wins, there's a race. Otherwise, this was nothing but a late scare in the Hillary coronation preparations.

[surfermaw]

6. Funds don't seem to be helping Mitt

Huckabee with few funds is beating the crap out of the rest of the GOP Candidates, how many mils has Mitt, spent in Iowa...so how would the lack of funds hinder Edwards, they haven't so far, some people know how to spend their money, and that is one thing people in the south are taught.

[Occam Bandage]

8. Edwards has spent nearly every dollar and every minute in Iowa.

Tell me, how is he doing in other states?

[Steely_Dan]

7. So...Who Do You Think...

Will finish in the top tier that is not there already? Just curious.

-P