The "surge", successful or not, does not spell victory

[kentuck]

The success of a "surge", real or not, does not mean we have won the war. It does not mean we are victorious. It's good that there is less violence. It's always better when less people are getting killed.

However, so far this year, there have been more deaths from violence than in any other year of this war. It's as if it rains in Africa and everybody jumps up and down because the drought is over. Even though the conditions brought by the drought still remain.

We have now returned to the level of violence just before the bombing of the Samarra mosque last year. It's OK to be more optimistic but it's silly to jump up and down in a victory dance.

It reminds me of a quote by Ronald Reagan about the little boy that was digging into a large pile of horse manure. "I know there's a pony in there somewhere.."

The purpose of the surge was to give the government time to make the reforms needed and to bring the Sunnis into the government. That has not happened. The Sunni still hate the Shia and the vice-versa.

So what has happened to cause the decrease in violence? Basically, the Sunnis wanted some of those American dollars that the Shiites were getting. So, they made a deal with the Americans. We will stop the violence if you will pay us. So Bush asked for an extra $196 billion, above and beyond the budgeted funding, to pay off the sheiks and warlords and to give the Sunni Security forces $300 per month - which was more money than most of them had seen in their lives up to this time. Does it matter why the violence is stopped so long as it is stopped?

The Republicans and the supporters are attempting to define the last 3 months of this "surge" as some great victory. The bleeding may have stopped but the patient is still in critical condition.

[ilovesunshine]

1. The war will become very successful as the election draws near...

I think most already see that coming though.

At least one hopes they do.

[mtnsnake]

2. That the surge is working is just plain spin by the Republican war machine

I've seen the way they're spinning it in the media. They're picking and choosing their spots. They're even picking certain neighborhoods in Bagdhad and pointing out how violence is down 10% in those neighborhoods, but much of the time they don't point out how violence towards our own soldiers is still higher than ever.

[Ezlivin]

3. Maybe Governor Sonny Perdue can pray us to victory