New South Carolina Poll -Hillary 47% Obama 33% Edwards-10%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=16534545-fed1-44c2-a2b2-900fe56895df

[jaysunb]

1. Maybe you missed this

down in the last box

Filtering: 2,200 South Carolina adults were interviewed 11/09/07 through 11/11/07. Of them 1,895 were registered to vote. Of the 1,895, a total of 1,483 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the South Carolina Presidential Primary. Of them, 201 were disqualified by SurveyUSA because they could not commit to voting "no matter what date the primary is held," and of the remaining 1,282 likely voters, 257 were disqualified by SurveyUSA because they said they had not decided yet which Primary they were going to vote in. The net yield is 577 likely Republican Primary voters and 447 likely Democratic Primary voters. All of these are voters who say they are certain to vote no matter what day the primary is held, and are certain today which one of the two primaries they will vote in. Caveat: Measuring African American turnout in South Carolina is a challenge in any election, but uniquely so in a Primary where an African American is a candidate for President. It is unknowable at this hour how many infrequent black voters, if any, Obama may turnout in a Primary, and, separately, how many infrequent young voters an Obama candidacy may attract in a Primary. These survey results should be evaluated with these caveats in mind.

These darned polls sure can be deceptive, or at least their headlines. :evilfrown:

[AtomicKitten]

2. So, like, Obama could have a gazillion more votes?

Effin hell yes!

edited for the winking guy ... ;-)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Since He's Beating Hillary 52% -39% In That Category I Don't Think It Would Change The Results...

Why is Edwards only getting ten percent in the state of his birth?

And why is the most "liberal" candidate only getting three percent of the African American vote?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. And The Results Are In Line With The Results Of Aggregate Polling

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html

[jaysunb]

5. I'm just pointing out the flaws of the poll.

It's misleading and deceptive, just like I did in another post on NH, where 48% of the voters have not made a firm decision, and 24% said they could change their mind., yet the headline blares something totally different.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. They Admit The Numbers Are Problematic

And they are a pretty accurate pollster:


http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/SUSA2006ElectionReportCard.htm

[jaysunb]

9. ok

n/t

[slick8790]

10. Probably because voting based on where someone lived for a few years in their early childhood

isn't a good idea? It's not like he was a senator from there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. He Was The Senator From The Other Carolina

DSB

[slick8790]

13. Yeah, exactly.

And? From what I understand he wasn't very popular in NC either.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. We Agree Then...

Gore-Lieberman did better in NC in 00 than Kerry- Edwards in 04...

That's interesting or revealing depending on your perspective...

[last_texas_dem]

17. Actually, Kerry-Edwards seem to have done slightly better

at least comparing the percentages of the vote received: Bush/ Gore 2000 it's 56-43, while Bush/Kerry 2004 it's 56-44. No significant improvement, but a slight improvement, which goes against the general trend between the two elections (Gore generally did slightly better than Kerry did in most states.)

2000 results: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/NC/frameset.exclude.html

2004 results: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NC/P/00/index.html

[struggle4progress]

16. Sez who? Plenty of folk I know like him fine.

[antiimperialist]

7. Does SUSA pretend to know the exact turnout for whites?

I don't get it. On what basis does SUSA determine that blacks are more unpredictable than whites when it comes to turnout?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I Guess They Are Covering Their Bases

All you need to do to adjust the numbers is project different turn outs among African Americans....

[William769]

12. I will be honored to give this the fifth rec.

[geek tragedy]

15. Not surprising.

Whether Clinton or Obama wins SC will depend on IA and NH.

AWFUL number for Edwards.

[calteacherguy]

18. Whatever happens in Iowa, the whole landscape will change afterwards

for good or for ill.