3 weeks ago, Hillary led Obama by 27%, Edwards by 37%; Today she leads Obama by 21%, Edwards by 24%

[Tejanocrat]

Rasmussen's poll of 10/22/07 showed Hillary at 49%, Obama at 22%, and Edwards at 12%. Today's poll shows that Obama has cut Hillary's lead by 6% and Edwards has cut her lead by 13%.

I'm still not a fan of national polls, but those who argue that "everything is rosy in Hillary's campaign of inevitability" and that neither Obama nor Edwards can catch her are delusional.

[Skip Intro]

1. Talk about twisting things - Obama is DOWN from 10/22 - he hasn't taken points, he's lost some

he was at 22 then, 20 now - you'd think if he were taking support, his numbers would go up, eh?

btw, Hillary's been running in the low to mid 40's in this poll for weeks - you pick the one day where her polling is higher than what it had been before or sense, to make a case she's crashing and Obama's rising, when the truth is, she's about where she's been the whole time, and so is Obama


nice try tho

[Bitwit1234]

2. Of gee those Obama groupies don't blame them for a little fudging

if your candidate was dropping like a rock wouldn't you just maybe fib just a little.

[Tejanocrat]

3. Obama's cut her lead by a third, and Edwards has cut it in half. In my world, that's good news, but

you may see it differently. That's why we actually vote instead of crowning a nominee based on pre-election polling.

[Skip Intro]

4. How can you say Obama has cut her lead when his numbers have gone down (in your example)?

if he had cut her lead, shouldn't his numbers have gone up?

[rinsd]

6. "In my world" That is a good definition for this BS

You can't cherry pick a time a in daily tracking poll and call it any kind of analysis.

Take for example 10/7/07,

Hillary was at 40%, Obama was at 29% & Edwards was at 12%.

Does that mean Obama campaign is in alot of trouble falling 9 points? While Hillary is steady and Edwards sees a small bump?

No. Because the overall trends do not show that. Hillary took some lumps in the last 2 weeks but she is still far ahead in national polling and doing quite well in NH polling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. You're The One Who Started The Thread

It's amazing the legerdemain you exhibit... Your talent is wasted here... You need to go to some inner city and start some three card monte games...

[MethuenProgressive]

25. Polls - if they go agin your guy they're FIXED!! - but JUST SUPER!! if they're fer him.

It's fun to see those who trash poll results on a regular basis tout ones when their guy is "up" - really, DU should have a humor forum! :rofl:

[laureloak]

5. An the MO is slowing finding Edwards.

Just like me. I shopped around for a bit then came back to Edwards.

[bullimiami]

7. so youre saying her once huge lead is now merely gigantic?

[robcon]

8. Clinton's lead went from overwhelming to comfortable.

She's not inevitable, but she's got a 20%+ lead.

[Basileus Basileon]

9. So she goes from "nigh-insurmountable" to "extremely comfortable."

Yeah, she's toast.

[Stop Cornyn]

10. I also doubt the value of national polls but I'm liking this trend as graphed by DaveD at his blog:

Link to DaveD's blog.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. This David D

DavidD (1000+ posts) Mon Nov-12-07 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Yes, it does look static
The dark lines are trend lines. Actually, they're fifth-order polynomial fits, which probably don't mean anything since there's no underlying physical process for the polynomials to approximate. Such fits will only be useful when the race is over, as a way of trying to see when trends developed and what they were. I added them in hopes that they'd show trends, but there really aren't any yet.
My blog: http://eyeblister.blogspot.com
My Web site: http://www.dvorkin.com


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3710171

ROTFLMFAO

[Stop Cornyn]

15. Yes. I read that yesterday. The projection of the lines is not what I'm referring to (that's what's

unfounded).

I'm liking the look of the graph of the past data and the direction that data is taking. Ignore the one week projection included in the graph and just look at the fit for the data which has already been accumulated. If you like Hillary, you cannot be too pleased with the developments of the past weeks, and if you are a fan of Edwards you probably are pleased with the past two weeks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. If I Was An Obama Fan I'd Be Concerned

I suspect Hillary Clinton would much prefer to go mano a mano with John Edwards than Barack Obama... Hillary has strong support from two groups; women and African Americans...She is currently getting about sixty percent of the women's vote in the primaries and sixty percent of the African American vote...Barack is getting about forty percent of the African American vote; Barack does better among African American men than Hillary... Hillary beats him decisively among African American women...Maybe gender trumps color... Who knows? Anyway if Edwards knocks out Obama that forty percent goes to Hillary... I don't know mathematically if it's possible to win the Democratic nomination while getting thrashed among African Americans and women...

I know from the research data and from anecdotal data that African American folks are torn between Hillary and Obama... I have yet to meet an African American who supports John Edwards...

[Stop Cornyn]

21. Don't get carried away. This is a national poll. Obama need only focus on Iowa, and he's doing fine

in Iowa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. If Obama Beats Clinton In IA and NH*

Then we have 1984 revisited; the insurgent against the established candidate...Anything can happen...
That being said I don't see how she can lose to John Edwards...Nothing against him...I'm just looking at the demographic make up of the Democratic party... Almost six in ten Democratic primary voters are women and almost three in ten Democratic primary voters are African Americans... Are women and African Americans going to abandon Hillary because she lost to John Edwards in IA and NH... I don't think so.... Hillary has built up a lot of good will among women and Bill Clinton has built up a lot of good will among African Americans...

In closing, I am and suspect team Clinton are much more afraid of Barack Obama...


*the insurgent, Hart lost in IA , of course, but converted a good second place showing to win NH and a lot of primaries that year

[Stop Cornyn]

23. I think Hillary's campaign is afraid of a lone voter with an honest question so I'm sure they are

also afraid of Obama as well as Edwards.

You ask "Are women and African Americans going to abandon Hillary"? Neither women nor African Americans belong to Hillary. If Hillary goes winless in Iowa and then New Hampshire, I doubt she turns it around in Nevada or South Carolina. Then, if Hillary goes winless in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, will she triumph on Super Tuesday?

The truth is that Hillary is the only candidate who can survive a third place finish in Iowa, but if she comes third in Iowa, she probably needs to win New Hampshire. Even if she comes in second in Iowa, she probably needs a win in New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.

This is the dilemma of the front runner: if you don't win as expected, you go into the next state with downward momentum, which can easily lead to another performance below expectations, which can quickly spiral out of control.

There is a reason why Edwards has been holding his Iowa television campaign in reserve while the others have been advertising like crazy. It isn't a lack of campaign funds to buy ad time because Edwards has more cash than Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel combined.

[rinsd]

14. You should probably include David's caveat about those trend lines.

"I tried various types of trend lines available in Excel and, like any self-respecting, serious researcher, chose the one that gave me the results I wanted. That turned out to be a fifth-order polynomial fit. Check it out; it looks great."

[Stop Cornyn]

16. That's why I gave you a link.

[rinsd]

17. But you should realize by now, too few actually take the time to click on the link.

So why not include all relevant info?

Or better yet, David posts these graphs on DU every day without the trend lines.

[Stop Cornyn]

19. I LIKE the trend line for past data. It is only the PROJECTION of that trend line which I doubt.

[CyberPieHole]

13. After all the desperate piling-on she still has a remarkable lead...

shows she is resilient. Should prove helpful during the GE, if she gets the Democratic nomination.

[RDANGELO]

20. I think the more important polls are in Iowa and NH.

Her lead in those is down to around 10Pt's. Nationally, I don't think people are paying all that much attention. If Hillary loses in Iowa, everything can change.

[Perry Logan]

24. The anti-Hillary people tell me these polls mean nothing. Wake me up after she's sworn in.