Is John Edwards in trouble in Iowa?

[Adelante]

Lost in the Cornfields
By Richard Wolffe | NEWSWEEK
Nov 19, 2007 Issue

Is John Edwards in trouble in Iowa? Peg Dunbar thinks so. She signed up as a county chair for Edwards in the northeastern town of Waverly earlier this year, after backing the former senator’s campaign in 2004. Now she has changed her mind and switched to Hillary Clinton. “John Edwards has been in Iowa for four and a half years and he’s in third place,” she says. “He should be in first place. Granted, it’s very, very close. But I don’t see him going anywhere and I don’t go with a loser.”

Dunbar is one of four county chairs—essential figures in any Iowa campaign—who have backed out since being identified as Edwards chairs in a June press release. Ernie Schiller of Lee County says he’s now undecided, Frank Best of Louisa County has switched to Obama and Jody Ewing is supporting Bill Richardson.

-snip

The county chairs are not the only losses for Team Edwards. Several other backers, all named in prior press releases, have also defected. Gary Anhalt was named as an “education professional for Edwards” in September, but says he’s now uncommitted. Barton Rule was a former Tom Vilsack supporter who endorsed Edwards, but says he’s now backing Clinton, as is Jay Kleaveland, a rural chair for Edwards in Clayton County.

Polling in Iowa is imprecise, but most show Edwards losing ground of late. No poll has put him in front since August. In the last month he’s been either tied with Obama for second place, or several points behind him in third. Campaigns can always replace individual supporters—but reversing a trend is much harder.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/69573

[rinsd]

1. Hey WesDem.....

Do you happen to know what Edwards spending limit is in IA due to his acceptance of public financing?

:hi:

[geek tragedy]

7. Say rinsd, would that be the same public financing scheme

that severely limits his overall expenditures to under $45 Million between now and August?

If so, I certainly must question the electability of a candidate who doesn't know how to use the free media and whose campaign will be broke on February 6.

[Adelante]

9. About $1.5 million

I don't think the FEC has said officially, but that's the estimate I saw.

[MethuenProgressive]

40. "I don’t see him going anywhere and I don’t go with a loser.” - former Edwards county chair.

Ouch.

[Rabo Karabekian]

2. MSM Strikes Again

I blame the MSM, lack of coverage, and propaganda against him.

[TwilightGardener]

3. I'm not trying to demoralize the Edwards crowd here, but I do think

Edwards' campaign is coming to the end of the road. He's really done his best, and is a good man, but as someone says in the article, if you've practically lived there since the last election, and you're stuck in third, what does that say about your chances anywhere else?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. In His Defense The Big Three Are Really Tighly Bunched In The Polls

DSB

[geek tragedy]

8. Trendline is u-g-l-y for Edwards in Iowa.

I certainly wouldn't want to be the red line there.

[Rabo Karabekian]

14. No Reason to Vote for Obama or Hillary

Yeah, you've got to credit the MSM. Obama and Hillary speak in sweet nothings, yet they seem to be making it a two dog fight.

p.s. When not speaking in sweet nothings, they try to be all things to all people...

[rinsd]

18. self delete

[skipos]

4. MSM and most people assume Hillary has it locked

If Edwards came in 1st there, it would be a big deal. it could easily happen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Think The MSM Meme Is That IA Is Up For Grabs

DSB

[Adelante]

13. That's what I'm seeing, too

We won't know until then.

[jenmito]

15. Edwards has been nearly living in IA since '04, so it wouldn't be a big deal if he won...

and also, Hillary would rather lose to Edwards than to Obama in IA. If Edwards CAN'T win there, it's over (and his supporters will mostly go to Obama based on their positions).

[Lucinda]

5. Well...I think Peg Dunbar's "loser" rationale is a crock, but I also no longer support

Edwards, so I can relate to people making that shift.

[Debi]

21. Peg Dunbar is a longtime Democratic activist.

Just odd that she bailed like that, not like her at all she's usually loyal.

[Lucinda]

34. Perhaps, like me, she just saw things that didn't "sit right" and made a switch. But

I thought the "loser" label was odd. If she'd faulted his behavior or his views it would have made more sense to me. I do understand why she might think that the time he has spent on the ground there should have yielded a stronger base, but I think his efforts are a large part of why the state isn't a lock for Hillary. I think being in a dead heat with two candidates who are all over the media is amazing. It's all very weird.

[Colobo]

11. I know one thing: Barack Obama is ready to lead.

[rodeodance]

12. well, if this stuck with edwards, he would not be the loser (as she calls him). damm

[wyldwolf]

16. yes, but I'm still betting on him winning it. If he DOESN'T win it outright...

...he'll be a close enough second to still a little thunder.

[geek tragedy]

28. You better hope so.

You can take Edwards finishing ahead of Clinton.

[Bluebear]

17. So "Peg" is nothing but a frontrunner. She'll only back "the winner".

Grand support.

[Benhurst]

36. Yeah, that's the kind of "supporter" any candidate is well rid of. In this case,

Edwards' "loss" is not a gain for Clinton.

[jenmito]

19. It's a shame he didn't raise enough money and therefore was forced to change his mind and

accept matching funds. What gets ME is that he claimed (and his supporters believe) that he CHOSE matching funds on MORAL grounds.

[Debi]

20. Wow, I wonder what got those people to change their minds

The Edwards supporters I know are loyal and wouldn't walk away from the campaign b/c of one or two polls. (It's interesting that the supporters interviewed in the above clip both went to Clinton - wonder what got them to jump over to that campaign).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Plesse Give Us Your Ground Report

I trust you more than Yepsen...

[Debi]

29. I can only tell you what I see here in Waterloo and I see loyalty

The people that I know that are with Edwards are solid with him, that's what makes the story so odd to me.

I know that when the Clinton campaign is making contact calls to caucus-goers and a person tells the caller that they've chosen candidate A-B-C (but not Clinton) they are told a list of reasons why that candidate cannot win and why Clinton is a better choice. I don't think this is dirty politics - just hard core campaign tactics. Maybe that's where Peg Dunbar got the 'loser' comment.

I went to an Edwards event in October and a Clinton event just yesterday, there were the same amount of people at both events :shrug:

[Adelante]

23. One went to Obama and one to Richardson and two to Clinton

It would be interesting to know if that's generally how Edwards support would split in the event.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Saw Some Polling

I saw some polling that suggests Clinton is Obama and Edwards voters second choice by a margin of 2-1 and that Clinton supporters are evenly split between Obama and Edwards as to who would be their second choice...

[Debi]

25. Thanks, I didn't read the entire article. n/t

[liskddksil]

26. Here goes the MSM again

Trying to demoralize the supporters of the campaign that is a true threat to their corporate interests. In reality Edwards has just gained an additional 10,00 pledges from the Iowans for Sensible Priorities group. His first ad buy is starting to move the polls, with the latest Zogby poll showing him down by only three, when second choices are factored in.

[AtomicKitten]

27. I think accepting public financing was out of necessity.

It kept the campaign viable in the short-term, but may prove to be his Achilles heel before it's over.

[goodgd_yall]

30. "I don't go with a loser"

What is this, an election or a matchmaking service? A really dumb thing to say.

[madfloridian]

31. The polls and media say so, don't they? Amazing, isn't it?

Edwards speech at the JJ dinner was amazing....but only Obama and Hillary get mentioned in the media.

The polls have had Edwards in third place for months and months.

Polls are God in America...aren't they?

And yes, it is very easy to do. Just post that Edwards is in trouble.

[Debi]

32. you got it mad - or take polls asking 'who do you support' and list

Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Other (and then write a story saying how Richardson, Dodd and Biden are the second tier :eyes:)

[ellisonz]

39. "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[Stop Cornyn]

33. Edwards has remained in the pack even though Obama and Hillary have been heavily advertising and he

hasn't.



Edwards has kept his powder dry and has only begun his television advertising campaign this month. He'll begin rising now, just when he should be.

Hillary jumped ahead too early and now she's painted a bullseye on her record and she will falter as a result.

Either Edwards will win Iowa, or Obama will.

[rinsd]

35. But isn't Edwards limited in terms of his spending in IA thanks to his acceptance of pub financing?

[Mr_King]

37. God....

This is the 3rd different thread I've read and in all 3 you have said the same thing over and over and over and over. How many times are you going to beat a dead horse?

We all know Edwards accepted public financing.

[Yukari Yakumo]

38. Ed is toast

What is telling isn't the numbers for Iowa, but the numbers for New Hampshire.

Avg. of Ras, Marist, ARG, and UNH : Number of TV spots each candidate in NH

Clinton - 36.25% : 352
Obama - 23% : 177
Edwards - 13.5% : 481
Richardson - 7.25% : 584
Biden - 3%
Kucinch - 2.5%
Dodd - 2.25% : 697